Projections

I have been a reasonably good boy today about grading, so I am going to indulge in just a teensy little treat:  a pair of projections showing, sort of *, how our teams are projected to stack up in the 40-team MLB-EFL… no, make that EFL-MLB 2016 season.

First, a note: I have always been uneasy about sharing pre-season projections.  Maybe you will find this hard to believe, since I keep publishing them every year.  But I have two worries:

1. That people will think I am gloating if the projections make the Wolverines look good.  I don’t want people to think I am gloating.  That’s not to say I’m not gloating — how could I not take a little pleasure when the Wolverines look good?  And since the Alleghenys — and the Dragons — conspire every year to make the Wolverines lose in the actual season, preseason projections have lately been the only time when the Woeverines look so good. But even if I do gloat sometimes on the inside, I would never gloat on the outside where others could see it and feel bad. I’m not Donald Trump.
2.  I’m not Donald Trump.  So I worry that people will feel bad, or discouraged when the projections show their teams under .500 or whatever.  The last thing a Commissioner should ever do is discourage league members.  So I sometimes haven’t shared projections I had in front of me so as to not embarrass or discourage anyone.

On the other hand, any information I discover or create in my role as Commissioner is not my information.  It belongs to the entire league. It’s not right for me to hold that kind of information to myself.  I do some Wolverine-specific scouting that I would do if I only was an owner — I don’t feel compelled to share that, and I don’t.  But anything that I learn while doing Commissioner work — manipulating lists of players, determining eligibility, etc — is the league’s information.  There are obviously gray areas, and the projections I do are in that grey zone.  But I should resolve the fuzzy cases in favor of disclosure.

I talked with Mark W. about this briefly today.  I know, I know: I’m acting like an Establishment Republican asking the elite-most EFLer in history whether it is considerate to share teams’ dismal projections publicly. What would our six-time champion know about the sufferings of sub – .500 teams?  But can I help it if I work across the hall from the legendary Mark Weinert? (I did see Phil today, too, but didn’t even think to ask him, so I guess that convicts me: I am a helpless elite-wanna-be.)

Anyway, Mark encouraged me to publish these projections.  Which will mean a lot more when you see them.

OK, first we have projected wins using Fangraphs’ Steamer projections:

	STEAMER	Projections
Team	Hitter WAR	Pitcher WAR	Total War	W	L
Wolverines	29	25	54	101	61
Cubs	31	22	53	100	62
Dodgers	26	23	50	97	65
Rosebuds	28	17	45	93	69
Cheese	29	16	45	92	70
Red Sox	26	19	44	92	70
Nationals	23	21	44	91	71
Mets	21	21	43	90	72
Giants	26	16	42	90	72
Kangaroos	25	17	42	89	73
Yankees	20	21	41	89	73
Blue Jays	28	13	41	88	74
Pirates	23	17	40	88	74
Cardinals	22	18	40	88	74
Dragons	22	18	40	88	74
Astros	23	17	40	88	74
Indians	19	20	39	87	75
Pears	19	18	37	85	77
Mariners	20	16	36	84	78
Rays	20	16	36	84	78
Angels	24	11	35	82	80
Marlins	19	15	34	82	80
Rangers	19	15	34	82	80
Orioles	21	12	34	81	81
Tigers	22	12	33	81	81
Royals	21	12	33	81	81
White Sox	14	19	33	81	81
Diamondbacks	18	14	32	79	83
Twins	18	13	32	79	83
Athletics	16	15	31	79	83
Tornados	18	13	30	78	84
Reds	17	12	29	77	85
Padres	12	17	29	76	86
Drive	19	9	28	76	86
Alleghenys	21	7	28	75	87
Rockies	13	14	27	74	88
Brewers	12	13	24	72	90
Braves	12	10	21	69	93
Phillies	8	12	20	68	94
Balk	8	8	15	63	99

I didn’t tell Mark where the Alleghenys landed in this projection. So we’ll see how he likes it now that it predicts a devastating Allegheny landslide.  Having the A’s down in the 75-win range should go a long way toward consoling anyone else who might find their team’s projection a downer. Even the Balk has the right to imagine what it will be like to sneak past the 6-time EFL champions before the dust settles in September.

 

Next is the Baseball Prospectus projection.  Three things you need to know:

1.  Baseball Prospectus is consistently more pessimistic than Fangraphs, especially with pitchers.
2. BP offsets this somewhat with a more generous definition of “replacement level”.  A BP replacement level team will average 51.7 wins a season.  A Fangraphs replacement-level team averages 47.7 wins a season.
3. BP has a ton of variation — its WARP does not just get added to the 51.7 average replacement level. Teams can have 7 or 8 more wins than they should, or as many fewer.  I don’t know why — strength of schedule, maybe? Seat-of-the-pants adjustments?  I didn’t “fix” BP’s math.  If they think 37+51.7 = 92 in Cleveland, well, so be it.

 

	BP	Projections
Team	Hitting WAR	Pitching WAR	Total WAR	W	L
Cubs	28	17	45	97	65
Wolverines	27	17	44	96	66
Dodgers	26	16	43	94	68
Indians	22	15	37	92	70
Rays	26	13	39	91	71
Mets	23	16	39	90	72
Red Sox	22	14	36	88	74
Pears	23	13	36	88	74
Astros	20	13	33	88	74
Giants	25	11	36	87	75
Nationals	19	15	34	87	75
Blue Jays	30	9	39	86	76
Yankees	18	16	34	85	77
Kangaroos	24	9	33	85	77
Mariners	21	12	33	84	78
Pirates	23	10	34	83	79
Cardinals	20	13	33	82	80
Rosebuds	21	11	32	84	78
Dragons	19	13	32	83	79
White Sox	15	13	28	82	80
Cheese	20	9	29	81	81
Rangers	19	10	28	79	83
Tornados	18	9	27	79	83
Tigers	15	10	25	78	84
Diamondbacks	17	11	27	78	84
Twins	13	10	23	78	84
Brewers	16	9	25	78	84
Drive	18	7	25	76	86
Marlins	16	9	24	76	86
Royals	15	8	23	76	86
Padres	13	10	23	76	86
Alleghenys	19	4	24	75	88
Angels	19	8	27	75	87
Athletics	13	10	22	75	87
Reds	14	8	23	74	88
Orioles	14	10	24	73	89
Rockies	13	8	21	74	88
Braves	11	6	17	68	94
Balk	8	6	15	67	96
Phillies	5	7	11	63	99

Hey — did you see that?!  The Balk are already better than the Phillies, according to Baseball Prospectus.  And they still have room for one really good free agent — and money to vacuum up premium debutants during the season, too.

——-

* I say “sort of” because our projections act as if all our players were playing 100% of the time without taking AB or IP away from each other.  This is impossible. We will inevitably waste WAR on the bench, or dilute our positive WAR with replacements. So these projections SHOULD be too optimistic, compared to our MLB competitors.  They might be better measures of total talent on our team than they are of the talent we can get onto the field.

On the other hand, BP is notoriously ungenerous with its projections.  And even more important — we can gather up debutants and free agents to fill gaps as they emerge, something the projections can’t anticipate. So maybe these numbers will end up being kind of close, on average, after all.