League Updates Speculations

The Commissioner Completes the Record

Ok, I have totted up our expected wins according to FanGraphs and ZIPs. Both of these systems assume a team full of replacement-level players would win about 45 games.

FanGraphs (fWAR)

DC:                      75 – 87    (15.1 pitching + 14.8 hitting = 29.9 total)
Kaline                 83 – 79    (16.0 + 22.3 = 38.3)
Pittsburgh         83 – 79    (17.2 + 21.3 = 38.5)
Canberra           85 – 77     (18.1 + 21.5 = 39.6)
Haviland           85 – 77     (17.5 + 22.5 = 40.0)
Flint Hill           85 – 77     (12.2 + 28.2 = 40.4)
Portland            97 – 65     (22.7 + 28.9 = 51.6)
Peshastin          97 – 65     (24.8 + 27.5 = 52.3)
Old Detroit    100 – 62     (25.9 + 29.6 = 55.5)
Cottage           104 – 58     (22.8 + 35.9 = 58.7)

ZIPs (zWAR)

DC:                      77 – 85     (17.0 + 15.1  = 32.1)
Kaline                 79 – 83     (14.3 + 19.9 = 34.2)
Flint Hill            85 – 77     (13.1 + 3o.2 = 40.4)
Pittsburgh         88 – 74     (21.3 + 22.1 = 43.4)
Canberra           90 – 72     (21.1 + 24.2 = 45.3)
Haviland           92 – 70     (22.4 + 24.9 = 47.3)
Old Detroit       93 – 69    (25.6 + 23.7 = 49.3)
Portland          100 – 62    (23.7 + 31.0 = 54.7)
Peshastin        100 – 62    (24.9 + 30.0 = 54.9)
Cottage            103 – 59    (24.8 + 33.0 = 57.8)

 

And, just as a reminder, here’s the WARP projection from PECOTA (using 54 wins as replacement level)  which I gave you earlier:

DC:                76 – 86     (12.4 hitting + 10.0 pitching = 22.4 )
Flint Hill:     81 – 81    (20.2 +  7.3  = 27.5 )
Pittsburgh:   85– 77     (20.4 + 10.3 = 30.7 )
Canberra:     87 – 79    (20.8 + 12.5 = 33.3 )
Haviland:     88 – 74    (18.8 + 15.0 = 33.8 )
Kaline:          91 – 71     (23.7 + 13.2 = 36.9 )
Old Detroit: 96 – 66    (23.3 + 18.3 =  41.6 )
Portland:      96 – 66   (25.9 + 15.9 =  41.8 )

Cottage:        99 – 63   (30.4 + 14.9 = 45.3 )
Peshastin:  102 – 60   (31.8 + 16.3 =  48.1 )

 

Comparing all three of these prognostications, here are my notes:

  1.  The PECOTA numbers here reflect this morning’s Flint Hill – Old Detroit trade (Jones for Straily).  PECOTA thinks Jones is 0.6 wins better than Straily.  ZIPs thinks Straily is 0.4 wins better. FanGraphs thinks Jones is 0.3 wins better.   Jones isn’t enough to get the Wolverines into third place in PECOTA, but it makes things uncomfortably tight for the Rosebuds (we hope).
  2. DC is like a rock. Although it’s a rock that’s getting uncomfortably close to our league’s undercarriage. We need to treat it carefully or it’s going to tear our Drive-train right out.
  3. Unless, of course, PECOTA is right, in which case the Drive will be safe in the upper division of the league.
  4. The other thing about the Balk:  if they break .500, too, you know the Commissioner is going to go crazy looking for ways to restore “competitive balance” with the MLB teams.  He doesn’t want us to dominate MLB teams unrealistically.  He’s all in favor of EFL teams having a real risk of finishing under .500.  He himself expects to take his turn as the league whipping boy.
  5. Someday.
  6. But not this year.
  7. If PECOTA is right, the 10th – 8th place teams will go Rock – Hill – Mountains. That would be pretty cool. That and the Pears sticking it to the Cheese again — I have to admit that’s a compelling prospect.
  8. But if you want a super hot race, you want fWAR. Five teams ending up within 2.1 games of each other! That would be scintillating. For fifth place, yes, but there’s nothing wrong with the middle teams having some fun, right? Or are you a rigid traditional elitist?
  9. If you are one of those rigid traditionalists who want your pennant races to be for the pennant, then I recommend ZIPs.
  10. But ZIPs and PECOTA stink if you want the pennant race to include traditional elite EFL pennant contenders — and who doesn’t?  At least in fWAR the race has one team somebody’s heard of.
  11. But fWAR (and ZIPs) have THE fatal flaw: Cottage wins!  Long-term, intelligent, devious scheming will be rewarded with victory.  Aggh! If that catches on, it will spell doom for the Wolverines.
  12. But let’s face it:  it’s almost as bad if Peshastin wins.

What a dismal season this is shaping up to be.  I can’t wait for it to start.

4 Comments

  • I am pleased to note that we are on the cusp of a new era in the EFL: the reign of the tasty food items. Fruit and dairy products are up; animals, mountains, and premature flowers are down. Tasty food items will make the EFL great again!

    • Hurray for tasty food! The only thing better would be tasty food already prepared for the World Series.

  • This may be the season where several EFL teams get to find out how tasty Wolverine roadkill is.

  • More errata. Sigh.

    This time three typos in the ZIPs projections, which caused totals to be off for Kaline, Flint Hill, and Old Detroit. They are corrected below.

    ZIPs (zWAR) (Corrected)

    DC: 77 – 85 (17.0 + 15.1 = 32.1)
    Kaline 85 – 77 (14.3 + 25.7 = 40.0)
    Flint Hill 88 – 74 (13.1 + 30.2 = 43.3)
    Pittsburgh 88 – 74 (21.3 + 22.1 = 43.4)
    Canberra 90 – 72 (21.1 + 24.2 = 45.3)
    Haviland 92 – 70 (22.4 + 24.9 = 47.3)
    Old Detroit 97 – 65 (25.6 + 26.8 = 52.4)
    Portland 100 – 62 (23.7 + 31.0 = 54.7)
    Peshastin 100 – 62 (24.9 + 30.0 = 54.9)
    Cottage 103 – 59 (24.8 + 33.0 = 57.8)

    Kaline puts some space between it and the DC Balk. Flint Hill essentially draw even with Pittsburgh. Old Detroit still looks wistfully at the leaders from a slightly closer vantage point.