Baseball Prospectus has updated its projections for the EFL race. A few days before the free agent draft, this is how we stood (according to BP):
TEAM Offense WAR Pitching WAR Total WAR Proj. Record
Portland 22.6 18.0 40.6 96-66
Flint Hill 21.2 18.6 39.8 95-67
Old Detroit 23.3 16.0 39.3 94-68
Cottage 27.0 7.2 34.2 89-73
Haviland 15.5 16.1 31.6 87-75
Kaline 18.9 12.4 31.3 86-76
Peshastin 21.8 8.3 30.1 85-77
Canberra 17.2 10.5 27.7 83-79
Pittsburgh 14.5 10.1 24.6 80-82
Brookland 12.3 8.0 20.3 75-87
D.C. 11.5 5.7 17.2 72-90
Here is what BP thinks of us now — after our draft, our other roster moves, and the injuries to the Giants’ best pitchers.
TEAM Offense WAR Pitching WAR Total WAR Proj. Record
Flint Hill 22.0 20.6 42.6 98-64
Portland 23.0 18.6 41.6 97-65
Old Detroit 23.1 16.5 39.6 95-68
Haviland 22.5 15.3 37.8 93-79
Kaline 19.9 17.9 37.8 93-79
Cottage 25.5 7.7 33.2 88-74
Canberra 20.3 10.7 31.0 86-76
Peshastin 21.4 9.4 30.8 86-76
Brookland 15.9 12.7 28.6 84-78
Pittsburgh 14.2 10.8 25.0 80-82
D.C. 12.6 7.3 19.9 75-87
As for who “won” the Free Agent Draft (and its environs):
Brookland + 8.3 bWAR
Kaline + 6.5
Haviland + 6.2
Canberra + 3.3
Flint Hill + 2.8
DC + 2.7
Portland + 2.0
Peshastin + 0.7
Old Detroit + 0.3
Pittsburgh – 0.4
NOTES:
- Some of you may remember my alarm earlier that the Rosebuds were projected to win 100 games before any of the drafts. That was true — but I was looking at OTHER projection systems. BP is a lot friendlier to the Wol… I mean, to some of us, so I am focussing on it today.
- Also, you may notice that I’ve pinned BP’s replacement level at 55 wins. A team of BP’s replacement players would win 55 games on average in 2018. I’ve pinned it other places before, but it turns out BP’s replacement level floats from year to year. I gather BP considers a replacement to be the player who would fill in for the starter if he’s down — and estimates this by looking at the second-string players the MLB teams carry on their benches.
- Other systems ( FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) set replacement level lower — theoretically at the level of players who go back and forth between AAA and MLB. These would usually be the players just behind the season-long backups riding the bench. FG and BR negotiated a consensus replacement level a few years ago at 47.7 wins per season. But then, we aren’t paying attention to those systems right now.
- BP predicts an average EFL record of about 88.6 – 73.1, just shy of the 90 win mark that would trigger a Competitive Balance Expansion Draft.
- As things stand right now, 2018 looks likely to boil down to a sibling rivalry between Portland and Flint Hill — at least, according to BP. The Wolverines are the only non-Johnson slated for the top 5. I presume this means I’ll have the support of the other 6 non-Johnsons who would like to avoid seeing this turn into the Johnsons’ family league.
Ryan pointed out to me that his WAR did not improve enough to make sense considering he’d gotten Kluber and Starling Marte in the draft. I checked and realized I had left Kluber off his Baseball Prospectus post-draft roster. I supposed we would have noticed this eventually, but I’m glad we noticed it now.
So here is a corrected version of the post-draft BP Projections for each team, and the amount by which each team improved:
TEAM Offense WAR Pitching WAR Total WAR Proj. Record
Flint Hill 22.0 20.6 42.6 98-64
Portland 23.0 18.6 41.6 97-65
Old Detroit 23.1 16.5 39.6 95-68
Haviland 22.5 15.3 37.8 93-79
Kaline 19.9 17.9 37.8 93-79
Canberra 20.3 15.3 35.6 91-61
Cottage 25.5 7.7 33.2 88-74
Peshastin 21.4 9.4 30.8 86-76
Brookland 15.9 12.7 28.6 84-78
Pittsburgh 14.2 10.8 25.0 80-82
D.C. 12.6 7.3 19.9 75-87
As for who “won” the Free Agent Draft (and its environs):
Brookland + 8.3 bWAR
Canberra + 7.9
Kaline + 6.5
Haviland + 6.2
Flint Hill + 2.8
DC + 2.7
Portland + 2.0
Peshastin + 0.7
Old Detroit + 0.3
Pittsburgh – 0.4