It has been a wild end of the month in the EFL, with several trades being made already and perhaps a few more to come in the next 24 hours. How about some good old fashioned trade analysis of the EFL trades? No other news outlet will cover our trades, though many of them are, in my opinion, better than any MLB trade made this weekend. Here we go!
Kaline trades Nick Senzel, Spencer Turnbull and Tom Murphy to Old Detroit for Dallas Keuchel and Willson Contreras.
This was the first trade announced during the 2020 season, the one that kickstarted every other deal. It was also the deal that announced Kaline’s intentions to the entire league. In Keuchel the Drive add a SP to their arsenal who is having a very strong season. He has already accrued 1.1 WAR through 43.1 innings pitched, and his ERA is a delectable 2.70. Keuchel will slot into the rotation behind Max Fried (0.95 August ERA) and Dinelson Lamet (2.54 ERA), and be followed by Aaron Civale (3.18 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (3.32 ERA). That is a very good staff who, if they can stay healthy, can easily rack up another 20 wins for the Drive in September. Contreras fills a hole at the Catcher position that was created by Tom Murphy’s ankle injury from the beginning of the season. Omar Narvaez has filled in admirably, but his August OPS of .520 has relegated him to the bench. In his place, Contreras will bring with him an OPS that is .120 points higher than Narvaez in the midst of a what has been a slow start for the usually solid hitter. Though Contreras is striking out at a higher rate than in previous seasons (32% K rate this season) he has also been unlucky, with a BABIP that is .050 points below where he was last season. Even if his offensive numbers don’t improve for the remainder of the season, which is seemingly unlikely, his defensive rating is 1.5 points higher than Narvaez. Unlike Keuchel, Contreras’ EFL contract goes through 2021, so the Drive will be able to take advantage of his production for another year.
The Wolverines picked up three players in the deal: Tom Murphy, Spencer Turnbull and Nick Senzel. Turnbull, under EFL contract through 2021, has a 2.96 ERA through 30.4 innings pitched this season. He features a fastball/sinker mix that induces a lot of ground balls and limits hard contact. He becomes the number one pitcher on the Wolverine staff for the month of September, and with his contract extending through next season, will be a staple in the Wolverine attempt to rectify a less-than stellar season. Senzel drafted this year by the Drive, is perhaps the most intriguing get for the Wolverines in this deal. He has had a lot of success with the bat in the minors, but it so far hasn’t translated into a MLB weapon. The Wolverines can be patient, though, since they already possess outfield depth. Murphy, who was coming off a breakout campaign in 2019, was sidelined early with an ankle injury. His EFL contract runs through 2021, and Wolverine management is hopeful for his health and hitting to return to 2019 levels when he OPSed .858 over 76 games.
Flint Hill sends 500k to Cottage for IF Willi Castro
The second move of the month was relatively minor, with the Tornadoes acquiring the services of the DFAd Castro. A young SS, Castro has had only 148 MLB PAs in his career. As a Tornado he will have time to develop under the tutelage of Xander Bogaerts.
Flint Hill sends Teoscar Hernandez and the 2021 First Round Rookie Pick to Peshastin for Julio Urias and Joey Gallo.
This move was based on depth at the OF position and a desperate need for SP – both this season and into next. In Urias the Tornadoes receive a SP who is under control through 2021 and has demonstrated both consistency and also upside. His 3.67 ERA through 19IP this season made him the best SP on the Tornadoes until other SPs were acquired in the following days. Gallo, primarily and OFer who also has a 1B rating through the end of this season, was included to play 1B for the Tornadoes in the final month of the season. 1B has been a weak spot for the Tornadoes, with their current 1B being Niko Goodrum, whose OPS of .624 was insufficient.
Hernandez is enjoying a breakout year, and the Pears are hoping it is not a fluke. His season OPS is .966 and he has already hit 12 home runs this season. You throw in whomever the Pears will draft with the first round pick, and this deal could end up being very lopsided in favor of the Pears, especially if the Tornadoes don’t actually compete for first place this season.
Flint Hill sends Miles Mikolas and their second round pre-emption to Canberra for Carlos Carrasco
In the third deal of the month for the Tornadoes, Carlos Carrasco is coming home. A Tornado last year, Carrasco’s 3.75 ERA over 36IP makes him the top SP on the Tornadoes for the month of September. Though his contract ends this season, Tornado management is hopeful he will provide a needed spark in addition to wisdom gleaned from previous pennant races to lead the staff to a first place finish. Mikolas went on the IL earlier this season, and has subsequently undergone surgery, though is projected to be ready at the beginning of the 2021 season. His 2018 and 2019 combined WAR is 6.7.
Portland trades Jason Kipnis to the Kaline Drive for $500,000.
The Drive acquired the 33 year old Kipnis who this year is OPSing .783 and has positional eligibility at 2B and OF. Kipnis provides depth in case of injury, though doesn’t project to outperform Drive starters.
DC trades Adam Haseley to Old Detroit for David Phelps
David Phelps was not only traded in the MLB, but also in the EFL. Phelps has accrued .4 WAR this season in only 13IP, which is a lot of value over a very little amount of time on the mound. He figures to slot into the Balk bullpen to improve their team ERA which was league average in August. Haseley is a 24 year old OFer who has not had many PAs this season (27) but who is a glove first player and plus speed and an average hit tool. Under control through 2024, the Wolverines have time to wait for him to develop as a Major League hitter.
Portland trades Marcell Ozuna and Blake Taylor to Bellingham for Dakota Hudson
The Cascades entered into the trade market with a splash, landing two players who should contribute to their run towards the pennant. Ozuna is OPSing .811 this season with 6 HRs, which is one less than the Cascade leader this season. Under contract through 2024, Ozuna should be a mainstay in Bellingham for several seasons to come. Taylor has thrown 15 innings this season with an ERA of 1.20, and will fortify a pitching staff that ranks third in August in ERA. Hudson, a 16 game winner in 2019, features a 3-pitch mix that with a little work could create a dynamic repertoire to lead the Rosebud staff for the next 3 years.
Flint Hill sends Francisco Cervelli and Bryan Abreu to Portland for Yasmani Grandal
Grandal returns to Flint Hill just a year after joining them via a trade in 2019. With eligibility at 1B and C, Grandal will provide some roster flexibility for the Tornadoes down the stretch. Cervelli has had a very good year thus far, matching his HR total from 2019 and OPSing over .800. Abreu is a young pitcher who struggled in his short tenure this season, but has the potential to be a mainstay in the Rosebud rotation for several years. If he can learn to limit BBs, his arsenal will play well as a starter. If not, he’ll be a valuable bullpen member with a mid to upper 90s fastball and a wipeout slider.
Cottage sends Sean Manaea to Flint Hill for Caleb Ferguson
In another move meant to strengthen the Tornado starting rotation for the final month, Manaea and his 5.64 ERA don’t seem to be an upgrade. But with an FIP of 3.79, the Tornadoes are taking a chance on his numbers correcting during the month of September. Ferguson has been a solid bullpen option, with an ERA of .63 through 14.1IP. With a SP rating, he is also versatile when it comes to allocations.
Flint Hill sends Javy Baez and Logan Allen to Portland for Anthony Rendon, Jose Berrios
This is perhaps the biggest blockbuster in the EFL this season, with four players included, all of them under contract for more than this year. Baez is an exciting player, sure to make waves in Portland (arguably the most exciting city in the US right now). His offensive stats are a little down this season, but he is under control through 2023 and has earned 9.7 WAR the past two years combined. Allen is a young pitcher who has had moments of flashing SP potential. Whether as a long man out of the bullpen or a number 4 or 5 starter, it never hurts to have young arms on your staff. Rendon got off to a slow start this season, but has since returned to his former self. Accruing 1.9 WAR this season, his combined total the past two years is 13.2. He fills a need at 3B for the Tornadoes, and is glad that his real life lineup partner (Mike Trout) is also his fantasy line-up partner for one month and then one hopefully glorious year. Berrios is one more addition to the Flint Hill starting corps, which has been revamped not for just this month but also through next season. Berrios features a nasty curve to go along with a mid-90s fastball, and if he can reclaim the control he flashed last year should slot into the number 1 spot in the Tornado rotation.
Dragons send Bryse Wilson to Portland for $1,000,000
In a move designed to mostly free up money for the Dragons, Bryse Wilson will join the Rosebud pitching crew and attempt to produce in the majors what he produced in AAA last year – a 3.42 ERA over 120 innings.
Dragons trade Brandon Nimmo to Cottage for Luis Robert
if there was any question about Dragon intentions, this deal erased them all. Nimmo, under control for another season, is an on base machine whose BABIP was a little low this year resulting in a BA under his usual level of production. Once it corrects, expect good things from this young OFer. Robert, on loan for one month to the Dragons before being selected in the top few picks of the 2021 Rookie Draft, has already accumulated 1.5 WAR this season, and is OPSing .920. However, his BABIP is a gaudy .368, which seems to be unsustainable for a long time. But there is not a long time left in the season, so Dragon management is hopeful this addition will earn him yet another EFL championship.
In all, there were 12 trades made among EFL teams, and there may yet still be more, which we will cover in the Wednesday edition of the daily update. And now, time for the scores!
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Kaline Drive | 20 | 14 | .598 | — | 167.8 | 137.2 |
| Haviland Dragons | 19 | 15 | .567 | 1 | 182.9 | 160.4 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 16 | 17 | .491 | 3.6 | 178.8 | 181.7 |
| D.C. Balk | 16 | 17 | .476 | 4.1 | 155.1 | 162.8 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 16 | 18 | .474 | 4.2 | 173.5 | 195.1 |
| Cottage Cheese | 16 | 18 | .465 | 4.5 | 161.8 | 173.8 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 16 | 19 | .464 | 4.6 | 185.2 | 204.0 |
| Peshastin Pears | 16 | 20 | .431 | 5.8 | 160.6 | 184.5 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 13 | 21 | .390 | 7.1 | 160.4 | 199.9 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 12 | 24 | .345 | 8.9 | 182.2 | 251.1 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 12 | 23 | .332 | 9.2 | 154.8 | 216.3 |
Kaline: DNP, (-1)-(-1) (33PA; 17.7IP)
| AVG: 0.219 | OBP: 0.242 | SLG: 0.500 | OPS: 0.742 |
| ERA: 3.56 | WHIP: 1.186 |
The Drive (and the Dragons) are going to have an interesting beginning to September. With the A’s being momentarily shut down, we could experience a change in the standings due to several DNPs in a row. Yesterday, Willy Adames went 2 for 5 with a HR, and Kevin Pillar went 2 for 5 with a 2B. But the pitching was the main story for the Drive. Adam Wainwright through a complete game 4 hitter, giving up 2 runs.
Haviland: DNP, (-3)-(-3) (36PA; 9.3IP)
| AVG: 0.167 | OBP: 0.306 | SLG: 0.267 | OPS: 0.572 |
| ERA: 1.94 | WHIP: 1.398 |
The Dragons essentially said to the Drive, “Anything you can do, I can do better.” How you interpret “better” makes a difference, though. They were better in terms of ERA, but not better in terms of AVG – unless you consider it better to do worse, in which case, they were worse (or is it better?). Their good pitching day was a combination 4 different pitchers all contributing to a complete game (plus one out) and giving up only 2 runs.
Canberra: W, 9-5 (36PA; 5IP)
| AVG: 0.344 | OBP: 0.417 | SLG: 0.719 | OPS: 1.135 |
| ERA: 3.60 | WHIP: 1.200 |
We have a new 3rd place team! And the beginning of the 16-win teams, of which there are 6. The Roos were led by Michael Conforto who went 3 for 9 with a 2B, and Eduardo Escobar who went 2 for 3 with a HR. Blake Snell threw 5 innings giving up 2 runs to catapult the Roos (who are very skilled at catapulting) into 3rd place and only 3.6 games out of first.
DC: L, 2-9 (46PA; .7IP)
| AVG: 0.205 | OBP: 0.283 | SLG: 0.231 | OPS: 0.513 |
| ERA: 12.86 | WHIP: 2.857 |
The Balk balked, and fell a spot in the standings and .6 games behind the Drive. Archie Bradley barely pitched, which is good, because he gave up 1 run in 1/3 of an inning. Besides Nick Markakis, who went 3 for 5 with a 2B and a BB, no one else did much of anything.
Bellingham: L, 6-7 (34PA; 10IP)
| AVG: 0.344 | OBP: 0.353 | SLG: 0.375 | OPS: 0.728 |
| ERA: 7.20 | WHIP: 1.800 |
The Cascades also wasted a chance to climb a little closer, instead falling .1 games behind the Drive. Justin Dunn pitched a masterpiece (6IP, 0ER), but new Brave Tommy Milone was torched for 7 runs in 2.3IP. The newly healthy Nick Madrigal chipped in 3 hits and a SB, and old guy Jeff Mathis went 2 for 3. But it sadly wasn’t enough.
Cottage: W, 4-(-3) (58PA; 10.3IP)
| AVG: 0.192 | OBP: 0.276 | SLG: 0.442 | OPS: 0.718 |
| ERA: 0.87 | WHIP: 1.165 |
Cheese pitchers served a platter full of whiffs and walked away winners on the day (how’s that for poetic, Dave?). All three pitchers (Gonsolin, Paddack and Alexander) were excellent, accruing 13 Ks in 10IP. But the hitting was bad, to put it nicely. Corey Seager went 2 for 5 with a HR, and the newly jettisoned Luis Robert added a HR, but 10 hits in 52 PAs is not a recipe for winning…usually. But they won anyway!
Flint Hill: L, 5-8 (43PA; 3.3IP)
| AVG: 0.235 | OBP: 0.395 | SLG: 0.324 | OPS: 0.719 |
| ERA: 13.64 | WHIP: 2.424 |
The good news? August is almost over and new pitchers are on their way to Flint Hill. The bad news? We are still over 4 games out of first. Three hitters got two hits apiece (Bogaerts, Severino, and Hernandez) and we scored 5 runs, but the pitching was bad, even though most of it was replacement because Dugger is not allocated this month (his line was awful!).
Peshastin: “W,” 4-8 (31PA; 1IP)
| AVG: 0.259 | OBP: 0.355 | SLG: 0.259 | OPS: 0.614 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 1.000 |
The Pears managed a win thanks to math. They slugged .259 on the day, even though every member of the team but two got a hit. That’s right – 7 hits, all singles. And even though Yimi Garcia pitched a scoreless inning, it didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.
Pittsburgh: L, 3-7 (40PA; .7IP)
| AVG: 0.194 | OBP: 0.275 | SLG: 0.306 | OPS: 0.581 |
| ERA: 12.86 | WHIP: 2.857 |
Yikes! More bad hitting from an EFL team. Yesterday was unkind to a whole bunch of us. Dominic Smith continued his hot streak, going 3 for 8 with a 2B and a BB, but no one else did much of anything – well, besides Dansby Swanson hitting a HR.
Portland: L, 5-8 (49PA; no pitching)
| AVG: 0.238 | OBP: 0.347 | SLG: 0.405 | OPS: 0.752 |
Three Rosebuds got 8 of the team’s hits – and two of them (Cronenworth and Ozuna) were traded away. The third, Jorge Polanco, somehow remained untouched through the firesale. This will be a totally different team next month!
Old Detroit: W2, L(-1) (70PA; 1.7IP)
| AVG: 0.355 | OBP: 0.414 | SLG: 0.839 | OPS: 1.253 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 0.000 |
Well, you definitely can’t say we weren’t warned (how’s that for a double negative?). The Wolverines woke up from the end of summer slumber and bashed their way to within .3 games of the Rosebuds and 2.1 games behind the Alleghenys. 7 batters had multiple hits, led by Rafael Dever’s 4 hits (including 2 HRs) and Trea Turner’s 3 hits. What more can be said than what Wolverine management already said earlier today – he just couldn’t wait for my good report on his team, and so he updated us on his amazing day all on his own. More of these types of days and who knows? He might just do what he said he’d do…after a half season of his players not doing what they said they would do.
Great article and team report, Jamie. Thanks!