Friends:
I found an open window with my post in the form it was before I discovered the program had signed me out without telling me. Rather than write a whole new post, I’ll post this updated version with my report of the survey results woven into the comments on each team.
Also, here is the more cheerful original intro:
……….
August is over. The most dismal month in Wolverine history, one of the worst months for any team in EFL history, is over. The league is the furthest under .500 as a league it has ever been.
We founded this league to see if we could compete with MLB GM’s. With the possible exception of the first season (for which we have incomplete records) and maybe one or two more, every year the evidence has suggested we might be: we have run well above .500 as a league. Some years we averaged more than 10 games over .500. This year we are averaging a little over 3 games under .500.
Only one team has clearly bucked the trend: the Kaline Drive. With only one other team above .500, and that team not far off pre-season projections, the Drive stand out as the one team who has best coped with COVID consequences. Wizard, for sure.
On the bright side, the race is as hot a we’ve ever had going into the last month of the season. Especially in the middle reaches of the standings, from 3rd place to 8th, things are roiling, teams rising and falling daily. And that whole bunch of six teams is close enough to not be entirely out of the pennant race.
And then we had the brilliance to schedule our draft in the evening, just 4 hours after the MLB trade deadline. MLB had a surprisingly turbulent run-up to the deadline, and so did we. For those of us who had time Monday to prepare, it made for an amazingly rich and challenging day.
I want to thank those who answered the little survey for me this morning. I got responses from 7 of the 11 franchises, counting myself. Not bad for a work day! The rest of you are free to respond to the questions in the comment section, if you prefer, although that will come without the “benefits” of my editing.
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Kaline Drive | 21 | 13 | .606 | — | 169.4 | 136.0 |
| Haviland Dragons | 20 | 14 | .575 | 1.1 | 181.7 | 157.1 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 17 | 18 | .482 | 4.3 | 180.3 | 199.3 |
| Cottage Cheese | 16 | 18 | .480 | 4.3 | 166.2 | 173.5 |
| D.C. Balk | 16 | 18 | .463 | 4.9 | 158.4 | 170.8 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 16 | 18 | .460 | 5 | 176.4 | 191.6 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 16 | 20 | .454 | 5.3 | 187.5 | 210.6 |
| Peshastin Pears | 16 | 20 | .445 | 5.6 | 164.4 | 183.7 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 13 | 22 | .384 | 7.7 | 164.2 | 207.5 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 12 | 24 | .339 | 9.4 | 179.4 | 250.6 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 12 | 24 | .334 | 9.6 | 160.9 | 223.9 |
Kaline: W 1, L (-1); 2 – (-1)
| AVG: 0.304 | OBP: 0.304 | SLG: 0.391 | OPS: 0.696 | PA: 23 |
| ERA: 2.57 | WHIP: 1.286 | IP: 7.0 | |||||||||||
On an off-day in Kaline, only Jesse Winker (2 for 4) and Willie Adames (3 for 5) shone. Yet the Drive tacked 0.1 games onto their lead over Haviland.
Will deadline acquisitions carry Kaline to its first EFL championship? They traded for Keuchel and Contreras and drafted Mitch Moreland, Triston McKenzie, and Jonathan Schoop. That’s five impact players.
But maybe not enough to satisfy the Wizard of Whidbey. His goals going into the draft? “Get Mitch Moreland, maybe James McCann, and some starting pitching, preferably Sixto Sanchez.”
That’s an ambitious plan, but Kaline had the money to do it. He got Moreland and some rookie starters, but not Sixto or McCann. But, on the bright side, he did not expect to be able to land Jonathan Schoop.
Kaline’s dreams are simple: “Stay in first place.”
Although when asked to elaborate, it turns out there are some details he has in mind: “Getting Bryant to hit when he returns to the lineup, getting Judge off the IL, and Haviland’s sudden decline, which is not likely. I’d settle for 2 out of 3.”
Haviland: W 1, L (-1); (-1) – (-3)
| AVG: 0.219 | OBP: 0.324 | SLG: 0.313 | OPS: 0.637 | PA: 37 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 0.500 | IP: 6.0 | |||||||||||
Tyler Glasnow twirled six scoreless innings to save the Dragons from losing too much ground on this end-of-August off day. Miguel Sano homered, singled, and walked in 5 plate appearances to salvage an otherwise weak day on offense.
Did the D’s do enough to catch the other D’s? The Dragons traded for apparent #1 rookie pick Luis Robert for September, although they gave up a pretty good outfielder (Nimmo) to do so. I thought Sixto Sanchez was one of the two or three biggest impact players in the draft, and Dylan Carlson has the potential to join him — although it’s a lot to ask of a player who hadn’t appeared above AA before his August debut.
Dragon management was candid about his feelings about this draft.
“This was a bad draft for the Dragons, maybe the worst in the history of our involvement with the EFL.”
Wow. There’s more:
“We thought we could get a particular player we wanted for cheap, maybe even the minimum. But it turned out there was very spirited bidding on this player, exceeding our willingness to pay. And then add in that Kaline had so much money … we couldn’t really do anything to stop him.
“While we love owning Sixto Sanchez we were really bidding just to drive the price up – but then everybody quit bidding all at once leaving the Dragons with a very expensive Deb for one month.”
So Kaline was disappointed he couldn’t get Sixto Sanchez, and Haviland was disappointed to get him… maybe there’s the basis for a deal here!!
Or maybe not.
“It seems like Kaline strengthened every weakness,” Dragon management continued, “and, given his one game lead, it is hard to imagine we will be able to overtake him. While the Dragons have been playing well lately, especially the pitchers, there is very little margin of error for us to catch the Drive. “
I would not have predicted such doom and gloom in Haviland. But since the Haviland response was written, the Dragons have continued wheeling and dealing, acquiring this morning Trevor Williams and Jake Cronenworth from Portland for Tyler O’Neill and Sean Newcomb.
Bellingham: W, 7 – 4.
| AVG: 0.333 | OBP: 0.440 | SLG: 0.429 | OPS: 0.869 | PA: 26 |
| ERA: 1.29 | WHIP: 0.571 | IP: 7.0 | |||||||||||
Paul Goldschmidt spearheaded the Cascade offense with a double, two singles and a walk in six plate appearances, and Dakota Hudson capped his Cascade career with seven sterling innings.
Bellingham was in last place on July 31, but rose to third place by August 31. The Cascades also snagged Marcell Ozuna in the Dakota Hudson trade, and Wolverine wannabe Jo Adell in the draft.
Cascade management, in its response to the survey, said their goal in the draft was to get quality pitching. They were “very pleased” to get Devin Williams, along with the in-draft trade that netted Charlie Morton. Landing Jo Adell was a bonus pleasure considering the Cascades had few resources after the Morton trade.
After these moves, Cascade management says he’s “not sure I have enough to win it, but I believe I’ll make it close, barring any injuries.” I believe him.
Cottage: DNP, 4 – 0.
| AVG: 0.387 | OBP: 0.472 | SLG: 0.710 | OPS: 1.182 | PA: 36 |
No pitching? No problem. Alex Verdugo, Jeff McNeil, and Yandy Diaz will just combine to go 7 for 11 with 5 doubles. And in his last game as a Cascade, Luis Robert will make you regret your misdeed by adding a homer and a double in his four trips to the plate.
Pity the poor people in the tumultuous middle reaches of our league, where teams can leap from 6th place to 4th place without even playing a game or fielding a single pitcher. How were they supposed to decide between buying and selling? The Cheese had to be torn — and they acted it. They traded away one month of Robert (currently OPSing .960) but got seven months of Nimmo back (OPSing .861). Earlier they traded Sean Manaea (5.64 ERA) to buyer Flint Hill, but got back Caleb Ferguson (and his 0.65 ERA). Maybe by the time of the draft Cottage had settled into future mode — all three players they acquired were debutants.
DC: L, 3 – 8.
| AVG: 0.182 | OBP: 0.289 | SLG: 0.242 | OPS: 0.532 | PA: 38 |
Nick Markakis and Jorge Alfaro combined to go 5 for 8 with two doubles and a walk. But the rest of the team only produced a single single in 25 ABs — and 0 pitching. The Balk slid only one position in the standings, but fell 0.8 games further off Kaline’s Driving pace.
DC traded long-term prospect Adam Hasely for star reliever David Phelps, which indicated a buyer’s approach to the deadline. But the Balk settled for moderate-impact players in the draft. They definitely weren’t sellers, but they weren’t all-in as buyers, either.
The Balk came to the draft seeking two starting pitchers, two relievers, and “a decent OF rated at a couple infield positions as well.” However, prep time was scarce, so he was relying on being able to pick out the OF on the fly during the draft. As a result, he “got four pitchers… on my list, but did not get a position player.”
Rob particularly regrets not bidding on Phil Gosselin. He said so, and then he said another thing which reveals a hitherto unnoticed side to his character. The magical thing he hope to see happen?
“Phil Gosselin has to get injured or start stinking it up on the field — that will ease my regret at having lost him.”
Beware the DC voodoo doll.
On the other hand, DC is not that hard to please. “(It) would be great to finish on top, but having lived in the league cellar so long I’ll be happy to land in the top half of EFL teams.”
I know how he feels. It’s been nearly a month in the cellar for me now.
Canberra: L, (-2) – 10.
| AVG: 0.222 | OBP: 0.263 | SLG: 0.444 | OPS: 0.708 | PA: 19 |
| ERA: 10.00 | WHIP: 2.778 | IP: 3.6 | |||||||||||
The Kangaroos and the Cascades inspired the Wolverines’ quixotic September quest to win the month. Bellingham rose from 11th to 3rd place over the month. As of yesterday morning, Canberra had risen from 10th to 3rd place.
We started drafting at 11 pm EDT. The first pick took 20 minutes. Canberra used the next pick to place Tommy LaStella into the draft, dashing a Tornado plan. When the ‘Roos won the bidding, that was clearly a win-now move. But at 11:23 — while the LaStella move was afoot — Cleveland’s game at Kansas City ended with wunderkind reliever James Karanchak’s 0.3 ip, 2 er blown save. Just a little earlier in Minneapolis, Rich Hill’s start ended early with 3.1 ip, 2 er. That 10.00 ERA, combined with lackluster offense (Rhys Hoskins’ homer and double providing the only highlights), inflicted a lopsided loss at a critical moment. In an eyeblink, Canberra had collapsed from 3rd place to 6th, 1.4 games further from first.
But Canberra is undeterred. They are celebrating this morning the accomplishment of all their drafting goals: grabbing LaStella and a catching debutant, plus Trevor Rogers and “whatever struck my fancy.” (His fancy was apparently smitten by Luis Patiño and Taylor Jones.)
“I want to win the league and I think my revamped roster might be enough,” he said, “but I’d obviously need things to break my way.” Among the things that need to break his way are Caleb Smith coming back healthy “or Patiño needs to be great. At least one of these two need to happen or I’ll be bummed I didn’t go after a higher-impact arm.“
Flint Hill: L, 2 – 7.
| AVG: 0.241 | OBP: 0.267 | SLG: 0.379 | OPS: 0.646 | PA: 30 |
| ERA: 6.08 | WHIP: 1.486 | IP: 7.4 | |||||||||||
Flint Hill was in 7th place yesterday morning, and are still there now, despite weak hitting and pitching Monday. Teoscar Hernandez’ last game in a torn Tornado uniform featured a double, but was otherwise 0 for 4. German Marquez (is there a Spanish Schmidt pitching somewhere, for balance?) coughed up 5 er in 6 ip.
Flint Hill was the buyingest buyer in the league this year. Before the draft he bought Willi Castro, Julio Urias, Joey Gallo, Carlos Carrasco, Yasmani Grandal, Sean Manaea, Anthony Rendon, and Jose Berrios. He added four more in the draft, including Cristian Pache and Trevor Cahill. That’s 12 new players at least, not counting any obtained in mid-draft trades, at least 40% of his pre-draft roster. No one has staked more on this month’s competition, clearly shooting for Flint Hills’ first EFL championship.
Peshastin: DNP, 4 – (-1).
| AVG: 0.353 | OBP: 0.389 | SLG: 0.941 | OPS: 1.330 | PA: 18 |
| ERA: 4.50 | WHIP: 0.750 | IP: 4.0 | |||||||||||
Monster numbers from the Pears’ hitters — for a rather small monster of only 18 plate appearances. Juan Soto’s two homers were the highlight, as has been the case an awful lot lately. Rather more pedestrian pitching was still more than for a good off-day outcome, pulling the Pears to within 0.3 games of 7th place, and making them one of only two teams to gain on the Drive Monday.
That was before the draft. The Drive had a strong draft, but the Pears might have been even bolder. Risking a wad on James Paxton could pay big, but grabbing Ross Stripling was also a coup, and snagging Ryan Mountcastle could be even bigger. I don’t know that it’s enough to catch Kaline, but it should be good enough to move up the standings in September.
Peshastin seems to have given up all hope of catching the Drive. In his survey response, he said “Injuries have destroyed my hopes for 2020… Stroman isn’t pitching this year. Haniger isn’t batting. Several other Pears are injured. No magic can fix 2020.” Even seeing the ‘Roos and the Cascades make dramatic moves up the standings doesn’t comfort the Principe Pear.
“I have few goals for September, since my pennant dreams lie in ashes,” he said. But perhaps the spark of hope isn’t completely dead, because he went on to say “I didn’t expect to pick up a couple of Debs, but I did. Maybe September won’t be so dismal.”
Still, it’s clear the Pears are mentally moving on from 2020. “I decided to risk some long term money to build (I hope) a better pitching staff for 21-23… My big buy was four years of Paxton. If he performs in 21-23 as he did in 16-18, I get a good return.”
Pittsburgh: L, 4 – 8.
| AVG: 0.211 | OBP: 0.360 | SLG: 0.263 | OPS: 0.623 | PA: 25 |
No pitching and weak hitting (although the OBP is solid) left the Alleghenys with a loss, sucking them down to within 2 games of last place. Pittsburgh neither bought nor sold in the pre-deadline trade market, and (except for Kevin Plawecki) drafted nothing but very promising prospects. These may help them avoid the cellar, but appear to be more forward-looking than that. Having matching rights on a bunch of sparking rookies next spring could pay off for the Alleghenys next championship.
Portland: DNP, (-3) – (-1).
| AVG: 0.100 | OBP: 0.217 | SLG: 0.250 | OPS: 0.467 | PA: 23 |
| ERA: 6.75 | WHIP: 2.250 | IP: 4.0 | |||||||||||
Rosebud players did nothing to divert their management from its selling ways. Marcell Ozuna left a double on the mantlepiece as a good-bye present.
The Rosebuds were the sellingest of the selling teams this year, trading away Jason Kipnis, Marcell Ozuna, Blake Taylor, Yasmani Grandal, Anthony Rendon, and Jose Berrios before the draft. The Rosebuds drafted modestly (only 3 picks) but consistently looking toward the future with three young players on two year deals. The #1 pick in next spring’s draft would be a nice capstone to their future-oriented strategy.
Old Detroit: L, 6 – 8.
| AVG: 0.286 | OBP: 0.302 | SLG: 0.405 | OPS: 0.707 | PA: 43 |
| ERA: 0.00 | WHIP: 1.333 | IP: 3.0 | |||||||||||
Wolverine hitters cooled off a bit from their recent hot streak. Well, not Trea Turner, of course, he still went 4 for 5 with a homer (raising his batting average to .377 and his OPS to 1.077). Jurickson Profar caught the bug (3 for 4) which is also a promising sign. Adrian Morejon did all he could with the 3 innings he was given (0 earned runs) but being allocated only 33% decimated the impact he could have. (Daniel Vogelbach made a long-distance call from Buffalo to say good-bye to his Wolverine career with another signature 0 for 3. He also welcomed Robbie Ray to Wolverine exile with the Blue Jays.)
The W’s should have been sellers, as anyone with a brain can see. Instead they switched from selling (AFTER trading away their best pitcher) and tried to buy their way to a monthly championship. There’s no such thing as monthly championships, but you can fool some people nearly all the time, apparently.
The W’s should have been sellers, as anyone with a brain can see. Instead they switched from selling (AFTER trading away their best pitcher) and tried to buy their way to a monthly championship. There’s no such thing as monthly championships, but you can fool some people nearly all the time, apparently.
The OD plan was:
1. “Assemble a swarm of pitchers — at least 4, including one stud.” This season has been so taxing on pitchers that the Wolverines’ old model for pitching was stretched way too thin. (The W’s got 5 pitchers, with Mike Minor supposedly the stud.)
2. “Get a big bat”: Moreland, Mountcastle, or McCann, in that order of preference. (We got McCann.)
3. “Get a good catcher for 2 years to replace Willson Contreras.” (We got McCann.)
The W’s also had two “luxury special objectives” — get Jose Iglesias through 2021 to smooth the middle infield transition in 2021 after Turner leaves, and get Felix Hernandez through 2021 in case he has a renaissance. Neither of those objectives were met, as explained in the response to question 4:
- What unexpected misfortune impacted your draft? (OD: Some dolt in the front office couldn’t restrain his impulses and thought it would be fun to snatch Trevor Rosenthal away from whoever wanted him. That cost us Iglesias or Felix. Oh, wait, did you say “unexpected”?
On the other hand, the W’s did repatriate two former Wolverines: Minor, and reliever AJ Cole. That was a nice bit of consolation.
And Wolverine management, ever the sucker for competitions that don’t exist, exulted over a “win”: “I won the draft! Meaning I got the most players: 7, two more than the second-place team.”
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2020
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 11 | .694 | — |
| New York Yankees | 19 | 14 | .576 | 4.5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 18 | 15 | .545 | 5.5 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 16 | 20 | .454 | 8.6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 15 | 19 | .441 | 9 |
| Boston Red Sox | 12 | 23 | .343 | 12.5 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 12 | 24 | .334 | 13 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Atlanta Braves | 20 | 14 | .588 | — |
| Miami Marlins | 15 | 15 | .500 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 15 | 15 | .500 | 3 |
| D.C. Balk | 16 | 18 | .463 | 4.3 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 16 | 18 | .460 | 4.4 |
| New York Mets | 15 | 20 | .429 | 5.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 12 | 20 | .375 | 7 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago White Sox | 22 | 13 | .629 | — |
| Cleveland Indians | 21 | 14 | .600 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 20 | 16 | .556 | 2.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 16 | 16 | .500 | 4.5 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 17 | 18 | .482 | 5.1 |
| Kansas City Royals | 14 | 21 | .400 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 13 | 22 | .384 | 8.6 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago Cubs | 20 | 14 | .588 | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 13 | 13 | .500 | 3 |
| Cottage Cheese | 16 | 18 | .480 | 3.7 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 16 | 18 | .471 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 15 | 20 | .429 | 5.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 10 | 22 | .313 | 9 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Oakland A’s | 22 | 12 | .647 | — |
| Kaline Drive | 21 | 13 | .606 | 1.4 |
| Houston Astros | 19 | 14 | .576 | 2.5 |
| Haviland Dragons | 20 | 14 | .575 | 2.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 15 | 22 | .405 | 8.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 12 | 21 | .364 | 9.5 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 12 | 24 | .333 | 11 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 26 | 10 | .722 | — |
| San Diego Padres | 22 | 15 | .595 | 4.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 17 | 18 | .486 | 8.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 17 | 19 | .472 | 9 |
| Peshastin Pears | 16 | 20 | .445 | 10 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 14 | 21 | .400 | 11.5 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 12 | 24 | .339 | 13.8 |