League Updates

Extreme tectonic activity warning

Yesterday all heck broke loose.

EFL Standings for 2021
EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 18 7 .737 153.5 91.7
Haviland Dragons 17 8 .688 1.2 101.3 68.1
D.C. Balk 16 8 .674 1.7 123.7 86.0
Flint Hill Tornadoes 17 8 .661 1.9 98.8 70.7
Peshastin Pears 16 9 .644 2.3 105.6 78.5
Kaline Drive 14 11 .555 4.6 119.2 106.8
Bellingham Cascades 12 11 .536 5.1 95.2 88.6
Portland Rosebuds 13 12 .531 5.1 133.5 125.5
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 12 11 .502 5.9 106.3 105.9
Canberra Kangaroos 11 13 .459 6.9 124.4 135.0
Cottage Cheese 10 14 .436 7.5 140.0 159.3
 
Old Detroit:  W, 18 – 8. (46 PA, .476, .522, .810; 4.3 ip, 4 er, 8.37 ERA).  Eleven Wolverines appeared at the plate yesterday.  Eleven reached base safely at least once.  Out of 46 plate appearances, 20 resulted in hits and 4 in walks.  Byron Buxton went 5 for 5 with a homer and two doubles.  
 
All that is amazing, but here are two items of extra encouragement to Wolverine fans the world over:   Austin Riley is on a tear.  Through April 17 he was just 8 for 51, all singles, with four free passes (walks or hbp), for a .157, .157, .209 line, a .366 OPS.  I looked for a way to bench him, but with all my injured players I had no choice but to play him.  
 
On April 18 he got two hits, both singles.  Then he got a hit and a walk. Then a big day: a homer, a single and a walk. Then a homer and a walk, then two walks — a 1.112 OPS for those five days.  Then a three-game lull … and then yesterday:  4 for 5 with a homer and a double, a 2.400 daily OPS bringing his season total up to 0.843.  
 
So Buxton’s first career 5-hit day was quickly followed by a second earthquake, Austin Riley.  And then there was an aftershock… and I do mean “shock”:  Josh Bell got a hit.  It was a home run.  Now wouldn’t it be something if he elevated his season OPS from yesterday morning’s .353 to over .800 in 9 days?
 
All this tectonic activity overcame a fourth straight starting pitcher fiasco: Mike Minor’s 4.3 ip, 4 er.
 
 
Haviland: W 2, L (-1); 5 – (-5). (30 PA, .276, .300, .621; 14 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA).  Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow tossed back-to-back 7 inning shutouts yesterday, lowering the Dragons’ already league leading microscopic ERA from 2.86 to 2.63.  Adding to the tilt: a trio of infielders hitting homers (Jake Cronenworth,  Amed Rosario, and Gio Urshela) to produce a prodigious .921 OPS (and .345 ISO).  This combination of annhilatory pitching and volcanic offense thrust the Dragons an entire game closer to the Wolverines despite the W’s own big win!   
 
In fact, while the W’s winning percentage went up 0.010 with their 18 run game, the Dragon’s winning percentage rocketed up 0.053 in a single day — which I suspect will be by far the biggest leap in the league. Note how both teams outscored their opponents by 10 runs, but the Wolverines got less bang for their ten bucks because they were piling both runs scored and runs allowed onto very tall piles.  The Dragons, on the other hand, subtracted runs from the league’s shortest pile… a much bigger deal, leading to that much-bigger improvement in winning percentage.
 
 
DC: W 4, L 2; 31 – 23. (41 PA, .222, .317, .278;  1.3 ip, 1 er, 6.92 ERA).  The Balk did not do all that well on the day, other than compile a lot of plate appearances.  The jump they made in the standings — 0.40 games closer to first, albeit suddenly behind the volcanic Dragons — was entirely due to being relatively ready to suddenly play an  EFL record sextuple header. 
 
There were 6 0-fers in the 12-man Balkan lineup Wednesday. Myles Straw was the hitting star, going 2 for 4 and adding a walk and a stolen base. Not Byron Buxton, but not $9,000,000, either.   
 
 
Flint Hill: W 2, L (-1); 9 – 2. (26 PA .360, .385, .880;  5 ip, 4 er, 7.20 ERA).  The Tornados tried to take the same path as the Wolverines, and succeeded.  They did not quite match the tectonic fireworks of a Buxton/Riley display, but both Clint Frazier and Bo Bichette homered and doubled.  The pitching was almost an exact replica of  Wolverine  pitching, with German Marquez playing the role of Mike Minor almost to perfection (4 ip, 4 er).   The end result was a nice 2 win day, and climbing 0.3 games closer to first place, and improving their winning percentage by 0.024. 
 
 
Peshastin:  W, 7 – 1. (17 PA, .438, .471, .688;  12.3 ip, 3 er, 2.20 ERA).  The Pears didn’t get a lot of hitters to the plate, but all of them did damage, especially Ozzie Albies (3 for 5 with that same double/homer combination we’ve seen six times already in this write up (Buxton, Riley, Rosario, Frazier, Bichette, Albies)…
 
I thought I read somewhere yesterday that hitting was hard.  We have three teams already OPSing easily over 1.000, and another over .900… where’s the difficulty?
 
In fact, the big thing the Pears did wasn’t their hitting. It was their nearly lights-out pitching. Alex Wood had a fine 6 ip, 2 er outing.  Then Huascar Ynoa certainly ynoied other EFL teams with his 5.3 scoreless innings.  This allowed the Pears to improve their winning percentage by 0.029 and  gain 0.4 games in the standings despite the W’s huge win.  
 
 
 
Kaline: L, 0 – 9. (39 PA,  .154, .154, .282;  1.7 ip, 2 er,  10.59 ERA)  The Wizard of Whidbey is a kindly soul, as we all know, and eager not to embarrass anyone.  So the Drive are probably glad to not to have shown up any teams still struggling to hit under the old paradigm of hitting being hard. Seven of 12 Drive hitters politely declined to get base hits — only Kyle Lewis slipping up and clouting a homer.  
 
And the Wizard can also take satisfaction in not showing up any pitchers who might be struggling.    He arranged for Rafael Montero to triple chulk, even though it cost the Mariners a win.   Mark Minor and German Marquez are grateful for the Drive compassion. 
 
But what caused Kaline to be so merciful?  Might it be the result of massive forces at work in the league?   A huge fault has opened up between the top 5 teams and the bottom 6.  From the Oldies to the Pesties, 5 teams span only 2.3 games in the standings, less than a half-game apart on average.    From the Kalies to the Cotties, six teams occupy only 2.9 games in the standings, also an average of less than half a game apart.  
 
Between Peshastin and Kaline, however, a 2.3 game gap has suddenly appeared — big enough to hold all 5 of the top teams.   Kaline trailed Peshastin by only 0.4 games yesterday, but slid 1.5 games further from first place, losing 0.042 in winning percentage.  
 
In this light the fires this time among the top 5 teams seem less like coincidence, and more like a pattern, conflagrations stemming from a massive single cause.  Are there tectonic forces beneath the surface pulling the two halves of the league in different directions?
 
 
 
Bellingham: L, 6 – 7. (34 PA, .267, .353, .467; 7.7 ip, 6 er, 7.01 ERA).  The hitting was not bad at all — any time a whole team OPSes over .800, it is doing well.  All 8 Cascade batters reached base safely at least once.  Brad Miller was one of four who reached base safely twice, in his case once via a walk, and the other via a homer. Justin Dunn pitched ok (5.7 ip, 3 er) — but Alex Cobb didn’t, allowing an equal number of earned runs in barely a third as many innings.  
 
The Cascades slid 0.010 in winning percentage, and  0.7 games further behind the lead. 
 
 
Portland: L, 12 – 15.  (44 PA, .410, .477, .718;  1.3 ip, 6 er 41.54 ERA).  The Rosebuds are on fire just as much as any of the top tier of teams.  Look at that hitting!  21 of their 44 plate appearances ended with the batter reaching base safely.  Nick Senzel went 4 for 4 — all singles, but who’s going to quibble about that? Tyler O’Neill went three for 4 with a homer: with that 2.250 OPS, who’s going to  complain about the out he made? 
 
No one will complain about those things, because they won’t have the breath left after they finish discussing Logan Allen’s day: 1.3 ip, 6 earned runs. 4 outs (one by a strikeout), 5 hits, 3 homers.  Anthony Rizzo managed to  strike out Freddy Freeman yesterday on what appeared to be a filthy change-up… so why couldn’t professional pitcher Logan Allen do his job a little better? 
 
In the end, the Portlies slipped a notched in the standings, 0.5 games further  behind, and 0.017 in winning percentage.
 
 
Pittsburgh: “W”, 0 – 4.  (35  PA, .176, .171, .294;  5.7 ip, 2 er, 3.16 ERA).  The Alleghenys had a much smaller let-down, running in the opposite direction.  Sonny Gray’s  pitching was a little short on volume, but very good in quality. But Allegheny hitting, while fine on quantity, was lacking in quality — except for Jorge Soler, who clouted two doubles and a single in 5 plate appearances.   
 
This cost .016 Pittsburgh in winning percentage, now only 0.002 above .500.  It also cost them 0.8 games in the standings. Despite this, the Pitties somehow passed another team.  How could this be?
 
 
Canberra:  W 1, L 5; 29 – 48. (38 PA, .235, .297, .441; 7.7 ip, 4 er, 4.68 ERA).  Baseball Reference for some reason rated Mitch Garver’s truly great day — two homers in 5 trips to the plate — better than the staggering 5 for 5 Buxton banged out.  Garver’s OPS was a mighty 2.000, but heavier on slugging (1.600) than OBP (.400).  Senzel, O’Neill, Albies, Riley and Buxton all posted 2.000 OPS or better with higher OBP.  I worry Baseball Reference is still under the influence of a home run fixation.
 
Anyway: these Kangaroo batting and pitching numbers aren’t great, but they don’t hint at any catastrophe taking place. But six games in a single day opened a deep chasm right beneath the Kangaroos’ feet, and they fell in, despite Garver’s heroic homers and Kolby Allard’s valiant 2.7 innings of scoreless relief.  The ‘Roos tumbled 0.089 in winning percentage,  fell a notch in the standings, are now below .500 for April.     
 
                                                        
Cottage: L, 7 – 12. (48 PA, .316, .447 .395;  2.3 ip, 4 er, 15.65 ERA). The Kangaroos may want to whisper a word of gratitude that they didn’t fall all the way into the cellar when the ground disappeared under their feet.  The Cheese had a very fine offensive day, getting 21 runners to first safely via 12 hits, 8 walks and a hbp.  All 13 Cheese batters succeeded in getting on base safely at least once. Trea Turner led the gang, going 4 for 5 with a double.
 
(ASIDE:  Tuesday Turner hit 2 homers in 5 plate appearances, matching exactly Garver’s supposedly chart-topping 2.000 OPS performance from yesterday.  Then yesterday,  Turner followed up with  1.800 OPS day featuring a .800 OBP.  Which of his two days was most valuable?  
 
Tuesday (Garver-like): .400, .400, 1.600
Wednesday:                    .800, .800, 1.000
 
I think I’d take Wednesday: all that production while giving away only one out.  He was a baserunner four times as often as he was an out.  A team of Turners would make 27 outs every nine innings — and reach base 108 times. Since you can only get 27 runners on base without scoring in 9 innings, there would have to be at least 81 runs scored in a game featuring 9 hitters going .800, .800, 1.000. 
 
Garver made 3 outs.  A team of .400 OBP-hitting Garvers would be out 1.5 times as often as they’d hit homers. They would hit 18 homers every game, each time with the bases empty.  Turner’s team would beat Garvers’ team 81-18 — but only if the Garverians were at home. It would only be 72-18 if the Turnerians were at home.
 
Turner’s advantage in reality would be smaller, especially to an EFL team where all our hitters hit in isolation from each other, with average hitters in front of and behind them.  To be absolutely certain about who would be more valuable, I’d need to know what the average runners-on-base situation is when each comes to the plate: how many and on what bases they are. I’d also need to know the average performance of hitters coming up behind them, since much of Turner’s value (and none of Garver’s) comes in setting the table for hitters that follow.  I don’t know these things, and don’t have time to find them out.) 
 
But then Mitch Keller took the mound.  In a patter familiar to Wolverine fans, this highly touted, very talented young pitcher … lost focus? Something.  Of the 16 batters he faced, 5 walked, 3 got hits, 2 struck out, and 6 made other outs — and 4 scored earned runs. Had he had a GOOD day —  maybe a 3.00 ERA, which is certainly within his reach — the Cheese may have dodged the Kangaroos falling out of the sky and escaped last place. 
 
 
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2021
AL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Old Detroit Wolverines 18 7 .737
Flint Hill Tornadoes 17 8 .661 1.9
Boston Red Sox 16 9 .640 2.4
Tampa Bay Rays 13 12 .520 5.4
Toronto Blue Jays 11 12 .478 6.4
New York Yankees 11 13 .458 6.9
Baltimore Orioles 10 14 .417 7.9
NL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
D.C. Balk 16 8 .674
Atlanta Braves 12 12 .500 4.2
Philadelphia Phillies 12 12 .500 4.2
New York Mets 9 10 .474 4.7
Canberra Kangaroos 11 13 .459 5.2
Miami Marlins 10 13 .435 5.7
Washington Nationals 9 12 .429 5.7
 
AL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Kansas City Royals 15 8 .652
Chicago White Sox 12 10 .545 2.5
Bellingham Cascades 12 11 .536 2.7
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 12 11 .502 3.5
Cleveland Indians 11 12 .478 4
Minnesota Twins 8 15 .348 7
Detroit Tigers 8 16 .333 7.5
NL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Milwaukee Brewers 14 10 .583
Pittsburgh Pirates 12 12 .500 2
St. Louis Cardinals 12 12 .500 2
Cincinnati Reds 11 13 .458 3
Cottage Cheese 10 14 .436 3.5
Chicago Cubs 10 14 .417 4
 
AL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Haviland Dragons 17 8 .688
Oakland A’s 15 10 .600 2.2
Kaline Drive 14 11 .555 3.3
Houston Astros 13 11 .542 3.7
Los Angeles Angels 12 11 .522 4.2
Seattle Mariners 13 12 .520 4.2
Texas Rangers 10 15 .400 7.2
NL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Peshastin Pears 16 9 .644
Los Angeles Dodgers 16 9 .640 0.1
San Francisco Giants 16 9 .640 0.1
San Diego Padres 14 12 .538 2.6
Portland Rosebuds 13 12 .531 2.8
Arizona Diamondbacks 12 12 .500 3.6
Colorado Rockies 9 15 .375 6.6