Mr. EFL Answer Man: Things you don’t have to worry about

I’m a fantasy league commissioner.  I should be checking our fantasy mail box a little more often. It turns out my people have some concerns. They can (mostly) relax.  I should let them know.

“Dear Mr. EFL Answer Man:

“I’m OK with the Seraphim winning the championship this year. It will be their first time, and it’d be a lot better than having someone named Mark, Mock, and/or Johnson win it again.  Do I have to worry that one of those bullies will snatch the pennant away from the Seraphim?” — Fan of the little guy.

• • No, Dave, you don’t have to worry. Has anyone ever overcome a 1.4-game deficit this late in the season? White Sox GM Kenny Williams  once gave up on trying to win in JULY when his team was about that far from first place, and he’s been running the White Sox for longer than the EFL has existed!!!  Also, it’s unfair to call Tom Johnson or Ryan Mock bullies. They are two of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet. Combined, they’ve spent well over 30 years in the EFL without ever once being accused of hogging championships.  I doubt that either of them harbor any secret ambition to ace you out of your first EFL championship.

 

“Dear Mr. EFL Answer Man:

“Will we see a repeat of that one day of incandescent pennant race? Will I need to get sunglasses, or maybe even a welder’s safety helmet, to be able to look at the standings in the future?” — Anonymous EFL Fan

• • No, the forecast is for increasing gloom. I just don’t see any flaws in the Seraphim roster that can bring them back down to Earth. I’ve been most afraid of them since June. 

 

Dear Mr. EFL Answer Man:

“Will the Dragons shred other competitors’ chances in the pennant race like they are doing to Canberra this week? After all, once they finish off the Kangaroos this week, they face the Wolverines, Seraphim, and Balk in the next three weeks”  — Terrified of the Dragons 

• • Unlikely. The Dragons’ raw winning percentage this week so far is .911.  If they keep this up all week, they will tie their best previous week, Week 3.  Last week the Dragons’ raw winning percentage was only .343, and the week before that it was under .500.   They’re due for a decline — at least next week.  
  • If you still prefer to be terrified, despite my encouraging words, you should also look at the other two EFL teams running .900+ raw winning percentages this week: the Seraphim (.9002) and the Drive (.904). 
  • Here’s a cool thing: Kaline and Salem play each other next week. At least one of them will not be repeating their .900-level raw winning percentage next week.  Go Kaline! Alas for the rest of us, after next week Kaline will only have our four bottom EFL teams, plus the Pirates, to play. 
  • As for Salem, it still has to play teams 2  through 6 in the EFL standings. The Balk share this schedule. The rest of us have some lower-ranked teams left on our plates. Maybe that’s a glimmer of hope for the rest of us?

 

Dear Mr. EFL Answer Man:

“Will an EFL team have the worst record in major league baseball this year?” — Worried in Washington

• • In which Washington are you worried?  If you’re in the Washington, DC, area, you are likely to have a front-row seat on the team with the worst record in all of major league baseball: the Nationals, currently sitting at 41 – 82, a neat little .333 winning percentage.  But if you are in the heart of Washington state, our last-place team, the Peshastin Pears, are 44 – 79, a relatively robust .355 winning percentage.   True, the Pears are doomed to spend the rest of the season playing teams with better records, BUT that’s also true of the Nationals.  And the Nationals have only 7 active players (plus 2 on the IL) who are on an EFL roster.  The Pears have 30 active players (plus 2 on the VIL) who are on an EFL roster. Doesn’t that give the Pears a huge advantage? 

 

 

Dear Mr. EFL Answer Man:

“Will the EFL have a Competitive Balance Expansion Draft next winter?” — JP Crawford

• •  No. We don’t trigger one of those unless the entire league averages more than 90 wins in a season.  90 wins is a .556 winning percentage in a 162-game season.  Our league adjusted winning percentage is .526, and it won’t move much for the rest of this season.  We are now playing in a nearly zero-sum environment, every series between EFL teams will total .500.  Only the Pirates are an exception, and they won’t be able to lift the entire league winning percentage to .556.