MLB played only 4 games last night. Most teams had two or three players who played. So not much happened. Especially among the batters who faced Bryce Elder.
Let’s start at the bottom of the league so we can observe the Outstanding Player of the Day.
Peshastin 3.3 (26.7 – 13.3), Haviland 0.7 (21.6 – 23.7) Bryce Elder is our Outstanding Player of the Day. He pitched a complete game shutout for the Pears (and the Braves). This dropped the Pears’ ERA for the week from 4.93 to 3.00, and allowed the team to snare 0.9 wins, leaving the Dragons with only 0.1 wins to savor – or more likely, brood about, as Dragons are prone to do. The Pears are still in 40th place out of the 41 EFL/MLB teams, so they still are lined up for the 2d pick overall in the next Rookie Draft. But they are living dangerously with all this excellent play.
Portland 3.3 (22.4 – 15.1), OUR Pittsburgh 0.7 (22.5, 33.1). Oneil Cruz has a case for being Oustanding Player of the day. He went 4 for 5 for both Pittsburgh teams. The Pirates benefitted, which we’ll get to in a minute. But the Alleghenys didn’t, because Cruz’ performance was undermined by 6 replacement innings and at least 6 replacement plate appearances. And the Pirates were playing the lowly Reds, while the Alleghenys were up against the Rosebuds, who were well-stocked with fine 3.30 ERA pitching and 5.6 rc/g hitting, so took on only 0.4 innings and 3 PA of replacements Monday. So Oneil’s work (backed up by a fine day from Jack Suwinski — 2 doubles and a walk in 5 PA) earned the Alleghenys 0.3 wins. Better than nothing, but not the boost Bryce Elder gave the Pears.
Flint Hill 2.8 (21.8 – 18.7), Bellingham 1.2 (20.8 – 27.3). Between the Tornados and the Cascades, the competition for Player of the Day comes down to Bellinghams’ Marcell Ozuna (4 AB, a double and homer) v. Kevin Gausman (6.3 ip, 2 er) for the boys from Flint Hill. Ozuna single-handedly added 0.6 rc/g to Bellingham which, in this context added 0.2 wins for the Cascades. Gausman’s pitching sliced 0.59 off the Tornados’ weekly ERA, and also added 0.2 wins for the Tornados. But we don’t have to choose between Ozuna and Gausman, since neither had the impact of a Bryce Elder.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2.2 (24 – 20), Kaline 1.8 (25.3 – 23.8). The Elder / Cruz debate for our Outstanding Player of the Day reminds me of the Judge/Ohtani MVP controversy. Elder’s 9 scoreless innings looms larger than Cruz’s 4 for 5 — but Cruz shows up twice in his influence. He helped the Pirates by about 0.3 wins. But how much does he help the Pirates? I can’t tell. In the time I have I can’t mock up a Pirates EFL team, so I can put Cruz in and take him out and tell the difference he makes in their context. But I suspect even two Cruzes going 4 for 5 don’t match the impact of one Elder’s 9 scoreless innings. This isn’t much consolation to Kaline, who would probably have about 0.3 more wins if it weren’t for Oneil Cruz. Neither of the two Drives who played had that much impact. The two together didn’t.
DC: 2.4 (17.8 – 17.2), Canberra 1.6 (17.2 – 17.8). The Balk sent 5 men to the plate. As a group, they batted only .238, .278, .238. Doesn’t seem like much. So how did DC walk away from Monday with a 1.2- win boost? Here’s how: updating from Sunday I copied Jose Alvarado’s stats from Baseball Prospectus and pasted them in the spreadsheet off by one cell. Instead of having him as 27 years old, with 2.3 ip, 19.3 strikeouts per 9 innings, and 0 earned runs allowed, he was entered as having pitched 27 innings with 19.3 earned runs allowed. When I fixed that, DC was guaranteed a boost in the standings. Canberra, again, gets hit with an unpleasant surprise, which the two Kangaroos who played Monday could do nothing about. Kangaroo pennant hopes hang by a thread now — they have to rout the Balk the next two days, while hoping the Seraphim can reel the Wolverines back in without a Seraphim surge too far in front.
Old Detroit 3.6 (25.2 – 7.9), Salem 0.4 (20.2 – 18.8). The Wolverines built on their stunning leap Sunday despite playing short-handed (like everyone else) at a very high level. Four batters combined to go .538/.647/.692, leaving just 3 at-bats for replacements. Two pitchers combined for 2.7 scoreless innings, leaving just 6.1 innings for replacements. The Seraphim were caught more off-guard by the scanty 4 games played Monday. Only two batters got into the game, and they only managed 9 plate appearances and a .143, .333, .143 slash line. That left Salem having to absorb 19 replacement at bats. The Seraphs had ample surplus pitching to cover their needs Monday, but it’s currently at an alarming 6.19 ERA — a bit of replacement pitching would have edged that number down.
As Commissioner, I would prefer to see a final-week showdown between the first and second place team, with the third (and/or maybe the fourth!) place team lurking to take over if #1 and #2 beat each other to a standstill. Having the first place team match up with #3 or #4 is fine if #1 isn’t too far ahead of #4 (and #2 and #3, of course). So right now, as Commissioner, I am rooting for #4 to close the gap, and #1 to maybe come back to the pack a little.
That’s where I stand as Commissioner. As the Wolverine owner I’m fine with all that, too. So go Canberra! And, I suppose, Salem, too, but take it easy, ok?