The other day I analogized the last week of the season to the 27th out of the game. Now, five games into the last week, we have the last batter at the plate, having worked the count full. And about 1:00 this afternoon, the last pitch of the our season will leave the pitcher’s hand, and in the three hours or so it takes for that pitch to reach its final destination, we’ll find out if the season ends with a whimper of an out, or a walk-off standings-flipping blast.
At the top of the standings, the Wolverines let a tenth of a win slip to the Kangaroos, mostly by not hitting much. But the key to the Wolverines’ lead right now is the microscopic ERA it has compiled this week. That ERA shrank a bit — from 0.75 to 0.69 by getting 3.3 more scoreless innings from three relievers. Old Detroit still has a 0.972 adjusted winning percentage, which will not drop enough to be beaten UNLESS a Wolverine pitcher uncorks a wild chulk. Or, I suppose, a huge drop in Canberra’s ERA (currently 3.99) and a simultaneous tidal-wave surge of Kangaroo offense (currently 4.9 rc/g). As things stand now, Old Detroit has won 4.9 of its 5 games against Canberra even though the ‘Roos have a .572 raw winning percentage.
The Balk can look back a couple of weeks to the day the Wolverines engineered a 3 – game swing in the standings relating to the Seraphim. At “only” 2.6 games out, the Balk are still within range of a recently-see swing. To their eyes, the Wolverines’ outstanding achievement (that 0.69 ERA) is also their conspicuous weakness. Those towering, improbable statistical peaks are vulnerable. On the other hand, DC has no outstanding spiky stats. Their ERA is a nice 3.21 ERA and a solid but unspectacular 5.2 rc/g. It will be hard to make a dramatic movement in either of those numbers. If DC was in first with those numbers, they might be invulnerable. But by the same token it’s hard for the Balk to suddenly elevate themselves a long way toward the top.
Could a Seraphim collapse slingshot the Balk toward the top? Well, the first question is: does Salem have the potential to see a strong ERA or rc/ra ratio that could suddenly reverse? Again, Salem’s broad respectability works against this. It’s ERA is 4.24, with lots of innings already present. A mere chulk or double chulk will not, say, double that ERA. It’s 4.9 rc/g is not going to collapse all that far even if they go 0 for 30 today.
Maybe a combination of a sizable Seraphim sudden slide, and an awesome day on both side of the ball by the Balk, could be put DC close. Add a chulk or two by Wolverine pitchers and strong Kangaroo day on both sides of the ball … and yes! Sure !! The Balk could totally win this still…
In the Johnson family free-for-all, nicely packaged in spots 5 through 8 in the standings, Haviland is dominating with its .891 adjusted winning percentage this week, having won almost 4.5 of the first 5 games. The Drive has done the unthinkable – perhaps the unforgivable — by letting a younger, whippersnappier Johnson (the Rosebuds) take a 2.6 to 2.4 edge in their head-to-head face off. Hopefully the Wizard isn’t off napping somewhere this afternoon so he can guide his team to its proper place: keeping the younger generation in its place.
In the battle for the Steel Throne (the baseball fandom throne of Pittsburgh, the Steel City, in case you haven’t been following along), our Alleghenys are precisely as dominant as the Dragons are in the Johnson melee. It’s probably impossible for the Pirates to displace them with only one game to go. Especially since the Alleghenys share some key players — Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski — with the Pirates, so whatever high-impact things they might do benefit both teams.
Finally we come to the epic battle no one will admit to: who can finish last in the EFL and get the best draft position next spring. And here there is BIG NEWS, the lede buried deep (both in this update, and in the standings): The Cascades are in last place! I mean, first place ! I mean: if the season were over this morning, they’d have the first pick among EFL teams in next year’s rookie draft, and either the second or third pick overall. Meanwhile, those irrationally exuberant Pears, with their .759 adjusted winning percentage, have risen all the way to 36th place (out of 41 MLB/EFL teams) probably in line for a 5th draft pick overall, second in the EFL. Those sly, sneaky, clever Cascades: they gave the Pears that deadly .759 adjusted winning percentage even though the Pears’ raw winning percentage is only .377! How? Bellingham’s Belles have disciplined themselves to a mere .161 raw winning percentage.
But here’s the thing: did the Cascades make their play a day too early?
Could we see the Pear weekly ERA skyrocket today due to a couple of strategic chulks? Could the Pears get no-hit? Could the Cascades let their guard slip and watch, in horror, while their star sluggers — the Seagers, Arozarenas, Ozunas and Baezes — go on a tear and, say, double their vulnerably low 2.9 rc/g? The Premier Pear is no dummy. He may be off vacationing someplace, but these days that does not mean he cannot instruct his Peshastin charges. The gap between Peshastin and Bellingham is only l.3. games, well within the established range of EFL volatility this year. And the Red ands Pirates are right between them, with the Pirates practically defenseless against the aggressive Alleghenys…
….
Notes:
1. Yes, Aaron Judge got his 62d. Congratulations to the Dragons!
2. I will not be able to watch the last 15 simultaneous games unfold from first pitch, nor update our standings batter-by-batter. The Pear – Cascades race is close enough to make it worthwhile, but the Wolverine – Balk race isn’t, and it would be poor form for me to post every couple minutes another nail on the Balkan coffin. And I have a meeting at Pacific University.
However when my meeting in Forest Grove is over and I return to Newberg, if things have changed and the races are tight and the games are still in progress, I may hop on to do some final innings commentary.