Speculations

Baseball Prospectus Loves Cheese

January 30, 2015
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Back in late November I posted the following 2015 standings as predicted by the Steamer projections:

WAR 2015:
Old Detroit:       49.0 WAR
Cottage:            47.3
Pittsburgh:        40.2
Peshastin:        35.5
Portland:           32.8
Flint Hill:           24.9
Haviland:          24.4
Canberra:         23.2
Kaline:              18.7

These aren’t very satisfying standings since they don’t show our projected records.  And also there’ve been a lot of changes in our rosters since then.  So here are the standings for the end of 2015 as projected by Steamer as of right after the Rule 5 Draft:

 

Team Off WAR PitWAR W L .pct GB Total WAR
Seattle 24.9   13.9   89 73   0.551   0.0   38.8
LAA 27.2   7.1   85 77   0.523   4.5   34.3
OAK 23.1   10   84 78   0.516   5.7   33.1
TEX 19.5   11.1   81 81   0.501   8.2   30.6
HD 14.0   11.5   76 86   0.469   13.3   25.5
HOU 16.4   7.8   75 87   0.461   14.6   24.2
KD 12.6   6.9   70 92   0.432   19.3   19.5
 ——  ——  ——  —— —– —– —- —— —- —–  —-  ——
PA 23.9 10 84 78 0.521 0.0 33.9
DET 23.9   10.9   85 77   0.527   -0.9   34.8
CLE 21   12.9   84 78   0.521   0.0   33.9
KC 23.2   10.5   84 78   0.520   0.2   33.7
MIN 17.7   10.5   79 83   0.486   5.7   28.2
CWS 14.4   11.5   76 86   0.472   8.0   25.9
 ——  ——  —— —— —– —- —- —— —- —–  —- ——
OD 32.1   14.1   97 65   0.597   0.0   46.2
BOS 29.1   13   93 69   0.572   4.1   42.1
TB 23.4   9.5   83 79   0.515   13.3   32.9
NYY 20.2   13.2   84 78   0.518   12.8   33.4
TOR 26.2   9.5   86 76   0.532   10.5   35.7
BAL 24.6   6.7   82 80   0.505   14.9   31.3
FH 18.7   6   75 87   0.464   21.5   24.7
LAD 25.1   14.4   90 72   0.556   0.0   39.5
PP 24.1   12.9   87 75   0.540   2.5   37
PR 20.7   10   81 81   0.501   8.8   30.7
COL 19.5   10.6   81 81   0.497   9.4   30.1
SF 20.9   9.1   80 82   0.497   9.5   30
SD 15.8   6.3   73 89   0.448   17.4   22.1
ARI 14.2   7   72 90   0.443   18.3   21.2
 ——  ——  —— —— —– —– —- —— —- —– —- ——
CC 30.8   14.4   96 66   0.591   0.0   45.2
STL 25.3   11.3   87 75   0.538   8.6   36.6
PIT 23.6   10.5   85 77   0.522   11.1   34.1
CHC 16.4   12   79 83   0.487   16.8   28.4
MIL 17.9   8.4   77 85   0.474   18.9   26.3
CIN 17.2   8.4   76 86   0.470   19.6   25.6
 —— ——  ——  —— —– —– —- —–  —-  —–  —- ——
WAS 27.4   14.3   92 70   0.569   0.0   41.7
MIA 17.8   11   79 83   0.489   12.9   28.8
NYM 17.2   8.1   76 86   0.468   16.4   25.3
CK 19   4.4   74 88   0.456   18.3   23.4
ATL 12   6.8   69 93   0.428   22.9   18.8
PHI 8.7   5.1   64 98   0.397   27.9   13.8

The Wolverine lead over the Cheese shrank from 1.7 games to only 1.0.  Other stuff happened, too, probably.

Yesterday I noticed that Baseball Prospectus had come out with their projections.  So I updated our rosters on BP and got their numbers.  The standings at the end of 2015 according to BP are going to look something like this…

PECOTA
Team Off WAR PitWAR W L .pct GB  Total WAR
LAA 27.6   10   90 72   0.556   0.0   37.6
SEA 24.9   9.7   87 75   0.537   3.0   34.6
OAK 23.8   9.7   84 78   0.518   6.0   33.5
TEX 19.5   8.4   83 79   0.512   7.0   27.9
HOU 18   4.7   77 85   0.475   13.0   22.7
KD 11   5.5   69 93   0.425   21.2   16.5
HD 10.2   4.9   67 95   0.416   22.6   15.1
PA 23.9 10 86 76 0.532 0.0 33.9
DET 17.7   9.7   82 80   0.506   4.2   27.4
CLE 19.5   7.3   81 81   0.500   5.2   26.8
CWS 16.4   6.2   73 89   0.451   13.1   22.6
KC 17.9   4.7   72 90   0.444   14.2   22.6
MIN 14.4   1.5   70 92   0.432   16.2   15.9
OD 30.3   6.8   89 73   0.552   0.0   37.1
TB 23.4   11.4   86 76   0.531   3.4   34.8
BOS 28.7   4.2   86 76   0.531   3.4   32.9
TOR 22.6   5.5   82 80   0.506   7.4   28.1
NYY 18.3   7.2   80 82   0.494   9.4   25.5
BAL 18.7   6.9   78 84   0.481   11.4   25.6
FH 17.2   5.3   75 87   0.462   14.6   22.5
Team Off WAR PitWAR W L .pct GB
LAD 26.9   17   97 65   0.599   0.0   43.9
PP 25.4   11.4   89 73   0.550   7.9   36.8
SF 18.2   11.3   84 78   0.519   13.0   29.5
SD 21.5   8.7   83 79   0.512   14.0   30.2
ARI 16.9   7.3   74 88   0.457   23.0   24.2
COL 19.2   4.2   74 88   0.456   23.1   23.4
PR 16.8   3.3   72 90   0.447   24.6   20.1
CC 29.3   8.3   90 72   0.555   0.0   37.6
STL 26.7   12.5   89 73   0.549   0.9   39.2
CHC 21.1   7.8   82 80   0.506   7.9   28.9
PIT 23.5   4.1   81 81   0.500   8.9   27.6
CIN 20.8   8.4   79 83   0.488   10.9   29.2
MIL 21.9   6.2   79 83   0.488   10.9   28.1
WAS 23.6   16.7   91 71   0.562   0.0   40.3
NYM 22.6   7.5   82 80   0.506   9.0   30.1
MIA 18.8   9.8   81 81   0.500   10.0   28.6
ATL 12.9   7.9   74 88   0.457   17.0   20.8
CK 18   3.3   74 88   0.454   17.4   21.3
PHI 13.4   5.3   69 93   0.426   22.0   18.7

 

So, unless we alter our rosters between now and then, the two-way race where the Wolverines edge out the Cheese becomes a three-way race with the Cheese very narrowly on top and the W’s with a microscopic (more likely illusory) edge over the Pears.  The Alleghenys lurk just a little back in both versions, ready to swoop in and steal the prize if anyone falters.

I don’t like the BP projections all that much, and not just because they predict the Cheese to forget their station in life.  Unlike the Steamer projections, MLB teams’ overall records do not balance with BP’s predicted WAR for each player.  BP adjusts the players’ WAR totals in some way that differs from team to team to get the predicted team ratings.  The EFL teams “enjoy” no such fudge factors.

Also, BP can be unbelievably harsh. Welington Castillo’s predicted WAR at catcher is only 0.1 according to BP, compared to Steamer’s 0.6.  And Corey Kluber falls from 4.0 all the way to 0.7.  Other teams suffer similar oppressions.

If you want to see your team’s projections I advise you to subscribe to BP.  Or you can drop me a line and I’ll cut and paste them for you.

But don’t let it worry you too much.  This is all subject to change, since we are going to alter our rosters. The Rookie Draft is just over three weeks away (on Feb 21 at 1:00)!