Fangraphs is running a series ranking each MLB team at each position. So, for example, they started at catcher:
You see San Francisco there, rated as 5.8 WAR at catcher. Most of that is because they have by far the best catcher in the game: Buster Posey, 5.2 WAR at catcher. Posey is also projected to add 0.6 WAR at first base on his days off. But it’s ok, because Andrew Susac (0.4) and Hector Sanchez (0.1) plus rounding errors will make up for Posey’s absence from catching while he’s relaxing at first.
At the other end you see Arizona who, despite having five different players projected to play catcher, cannot accumulate more than 0.5 WAR at the position.
The diagram leaves out the EFL teams. Had I the technomarvelous skills of a Votaw, I’d just stick in the nine EFL teams in the chart above and it’d be all pretty. I can’t do that, but I can do this:
PP: 5.3; CC: 5.1; OD: 4.2; PA: 3.6; KD: 3.1; CK: 1.9; HD: 1.8; FH: 1.5; PR: 0.7
I did that by taking the Fangraphs projection for each team’s highest WAR catcher and adding half the WAR of the second-string catcher. This isn’t as sophisticated as the methodology Fangraphs used to make the rankings, but it will have to do. It’s also enough to accomplish a few fun things:
1. Demonstrates that the distribution of catcher skills in the EFL fits within the range of the MLB teams, although skewed a little toward the top end.
2. Allows me to brag about Yan Gomes, whose 4.0 WAR accounts for most of the Indians 4.3 team total, and makes Gomes the third most WARful catcher overall in MLB (and the most valuable in the EFL!).
3. Allows me to point out (in case Theo Epstein is reading this) how easy it would be to trade Welington Castillo to the Diamondbacks for some hot prospect. (Nick Ahmed, maybe? Or Archie Bradley? Why not both?) Yes, it would rob the W’s of 0.2 WAR at catcher, but we’d find a way to manage. Could you possibly get this done before 10 AM PDT Saturday? Thanks!
4. Allows us all to consider (gleefully or not, depending on your spiritual development) Haviland’s remorse in losing Posey. But no need to pity the poor Dragons: they have the cash ($37,750,000) to get him back (it would only take a bid of $21,000,000 over 7 years, or $32,000,000 over four).
Here are the first base ratings:
The Diamonbacks recover from their catching humiliation with Paul Goldschmidt’s 5.1 WAR rating at first base. This is also consolation for the Dragons, too, and for those in our league who were moved with empathy for their loss of Posey. Miguel Cabrera helps the Tigers match the D-Backs, although he needs help from Victor Martinez and even a little boost from Alex Avila.
At the bottom of the MLB spectrum lie the poor Phillies, flattened under Ryan Howard and his -0.2 WAR projection, which Maikel Franco can only barely neutralize.
For the EFL I used all the first-string first baseman’s WAR and 1/4 of the second-best available first-baseman’s production (if there is one), rounded down to the nearest tenth:
HD: 5.1; CK: 4.6; OD: 4.6; PA: 4.3; FH: 3.6; PR: 3.1; CC: 2.3; PP: 1.9; KD: 1.3.
Second base:
It’s fun to see Seattle atop this list, with Cano’s 5.0 WAR providing almost all of the M’s 5.1 WAR at the position. Flint Hills’ Dustin Pedroia comes in second at 4.3, boosted in Boston (but not FH) by Betts’ 0.4. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, flap helplessly on the ground, with Devon Travis projected to come out of the blue with 0.5 WAR to salvage a situation that would otherwise be less than 0.
The EFL at second base using the 1 + 1/4 method (as I will for the remaining positions):
PP: 5.2; FH: 4.5; PA: 3.3; HD: 2.6; CK: 2.5; PR: 2.1; OD: 2.1; KD: 2.1; CC: 1.6.
Third Base
They really like Josh Donaldson at Fangraphs — he gets a 5.5 WAR rating all by himself, the fifth highest of any position player. Sure, he’s great and all — but fifth highest? Better than my all-time favorite third baseman, Adrian Beltre (projected at 5.0 for Texas)? Better than my young challenger Manny Machado (also projected at 5.0, knock on wood)? Billy Beane knows what he is doing. I’m guessing Donaldson is ready for his decline phase which won’t be like Beltre’s decline phase: after escaping Seattle at age 30, Beltre has turned in WARS of 6.4, 5.5, 6.5, 5.0 and 5.7, and himself into a sure-fire Hall of Famer. If Machado doesn’t find another knee to destroy, and Beltre doesn’t get hit by the truck of old age, Donaldson will be an also-ran by this time next year.
Of course, with Kris Bryant about to debut, they all might be also-rans by this time next year.
EFL: OD: 5.0; PP: 3.7; CC: 3.5; FH: 2.5; CK: 2.3; PR: 1.6; HD: 1.5; PA: 1.4; KD: 0.5.
Shortstop:
Troy Tulowitzki (5.2 WAR) dominates this position even more than Posey did the catchers. (Hey — Tulo’s a former Dragon, too. Now even I am beginning to feel a little empathy…) Next comes Atlanta where Andrelton Simmons creates 3.9 WAR almost entirely with his defense. And after that come all the mere mortals, plus whatever undead thing that is down in Miami.
EFL: PR: 2.7; FH: 2.5; CC: 2.3; KD: 2.0; PP: 1.7; OD: 1.2; CK: 0.9; PA: 0.2; HD: 0.0.
Whew! We stink in the EFL at shortstop. I titled this essay “From Deep In the Hole” because I planned to lament the Wolverines’ horrible fate of having MLB’s worst starting shortstop (Adeiny Hechevarria, 0.3 WAR) in tandem with MLB’s fourth-worst (Jose Iglesias — currently batting 0.091, .147, .091 for the spring). How will I ever fill such a hole given my lack of money and my other needs? There just isn’t much shortstop value in the free agent draft, in my price range.
But look at how so much of our league is suffering. Hill City has no major league shortstops. Pittsburgh has only Maicer Izturis, who is a part-timer (and injured). The Kangaroos are living with Stephen Drew, whom Fangraphs lists as the Yankees’ fourth-string shortstop. But here’s the thing: all those teams have more money than the W’s. They can afford what little the draft has to offer.
Left field:
Alex Gordon (4.8 WAR) is nearly the Tulowitzki of outfielders. He’s never been in the EFL. Cespedes, the best mere mortal in left field (3.4 WAR), plays for Detroit and Kaline — right in the sweet spot for every Drive fan I know. Hanley Ramirez (3.0 WAR in LF; 0.4 more at other positions) has never been in the EFL, either, because no one drafted him his rookie year. Not even the computer. We aren’t as smart as we like to think we are.
Shouldn’t left field be about the easiest defensive position to fill? Manny Ramirez filled it. So did Raul Ibanez. Evan Gattis “roams” out there these days. No arm is required, only the minimum in mobility or defensive horse sense. Cespedes is above average even though every ball hit his way is on an adventure. Yet the Rangers list six left fielders whose total WAR value is -0.1. This includes the recently ejected Cheese Michael Choice and the recently installed Kangaroo Jake Smolinski (both projected at 0 WAR — or slightly above average for a Texas left fielder).
EFL: PR: 4.0; FH: 3.6; KD: 3.4; OD: 3.2; CK: 2.6; CC: 2.5; PP: 2.0; PA: 1.8; HD: 0.7
Hmmm. Well, we have the free agent draft yet to come, one last chance for some of our EFL brethren to put some space between themselves and the pitiful Rangers.
By the way, sorting our outfielders into left, right and center was tricky. I used Fangraphs’ projections as my guide in most cases, but where some of us have no “left fielders” but plenty of outfielders, I arbitrarily assigned one of them to LF — for example, Denard Span’s 2.4 win projection (wasn’t he supposed to be injured?) is slotted into left field here because it made more sense than putting Billy Hamilton there. Justin Upton covers left for Old Detroit because I thought Christian Yelich could probably handle center better. Jorge Soler goes to LF because why would you want Puig’s arm there? Mookie Betts splits his time among the three outfield positions because he’s only the fourth-best-rated Portland outfielder.
Right Field
You read that right: “¡La mejor RF en MLB es MIA, totalmente MIA!” For one more year, anyway. Stanton’s projected 6.0 WAR makes him the closest thing to Mike Trout anyone outside Pittsburgh has. And Trout is only 33% better.
At the other end of the MLB spectrum we have, once again, those lovable Phillies. This time they build that -0.2 WAR score on the backs of four different players, the best of whom (0.1 WAR — that’s above 0.0) is legendary EFL goldbrick Grady Sizemore.
EFL: OD: 6.3; CC: 5.2; CK: 4.5; PR: 3.6; FH: 3.6; HD: 2.4; PP: 2.2; PA: 1.8; KD: 0.5
OD’s rating absurdly posits that 1/4 of Gregory Polanco’s PA’s will come in RF, where he’s listed for the Pirates. Same for Joc Pederson in the alpine region of Kansas, and (as mentioned above) Betts in Portland. That’s the method and I’m sticking to it.
Center Field
From the Fangraphs article:
Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and it is not particularly close. Trout’s 8.6 projected WAR sits 2.6 more than the second-ranked position player, which is the same difference between the number two player on the list and the 48th ranked player. The 23rd ranked player and the 24th ranked players’ combined projected WAR are less than Trout’s projected WAR for 2015. Over the last three years, Trout has been worth 193 runs above average on offense. Only eleven other players have even half that much.
Fangraphs projects Trout to create as much value in center field as the next three EFL center fielders (Pollock, Martin, Pederson) combined. (A few of us cheat by playing non-CF talent in center field.) OK, we get it: Mike Trout dominates as baseball’s best player more than any non-steroid-enhanced player in my lifetime.
EFL: PA: 8.6; CC: 5.2; FH: 3.9; OD: 3.9; PR: 2.8; CK: 2.6; HD: 1.8; PP: 1.3; KD: 0.9.
Other Hitter:
Good old Fangraphs calls this position “Designated Hitter” and only covers the AL teams. In fact, Fangraphs starts its coverage of the DH/OH by saying the position is dying since no one has a full-time Edgar Martinez-style DH anymore. Really? Nelson Cruz? David Ortiz? Billy Butler?
Maybe he was thinking of the EFL, where I counted as OH the best player who hadn’t been allocated somewhere else plus 1/4 of the best player who’d been allocated as the backup somewhere else. This underestimates the position for most of us, since we can paste together OHs out of however many stray bits we want. But I’ve got to get out and help Melanie with yard work still this morning, so you’re getting the pruned back version:
OD: 3.2; PA: 2.2; FH: 1.4; PR: 1.2; PP: 1.2; CC: 0.6; CK: 0.5; HD: 0.2; KD: 0.1
Final Note: Here’s a consolation for EFL owners who have big holes at one or more positions: the last shall be first.
No, I mean this. Think of the plight of those poor Alleghenys. They have a center fielder producing 8.6 runs per game. They have $33,000,000 left to spend. That’s not enough — there’s no way to improve on an 8.6 WAR center field with only $33,000,000, even if everyone else stayed out of the bidding.
On the other hand, the Dragons have 0.0 WAR at shortstop — the weakest position coverage of any team in the EFL. There are tons of shortstops in the draft who can help the Dragons. They have the money ($37,750,000) to go after Zobrist (4.1 WAR) or even Hanley Ramirez (only $18,500,000 on a 5-year contract for 3.4 WAR). Or Elvis Andrus (only $15,250,000 per year through 2022). They could jump 4 games in the standings in the twinkle of an eye.
If you want your team to get better, the fastest way to do that is to have holes in your lineup. The deeper your holes the faster you can get better. Also, the more holes you have the faster you can get better, as long as you also have lots of money.