Stay Clear!

Things to avoid if you want your team to prosper.

 

 

Old Detroit: W, 15 – 3. .400, .488, .686; 0 ip, 0 er.  Right now you want your pitchers to avoid Wolverine hitters! As of a week ago, the W’s had score 54.8 runs in 11 games — just under 5.0 runs per game.  Over the last 7 games the W’s scored 51.4 games, or just over 7.3 runs per game.  A team that gave up 7.3 runs per game would surrender 1182 runs in a season. The record for team runs allowed since 1900 is the 1930 Philadelphia Phillies, who surrendered 1199.  I doubt that is a recipe for success.

Haviland: “W”, 1 – 2. .189, .231, .378; 2 ip, o er.

Cottage: L, 4 – 6. .281, .286, .385;  4.7 ip, 6 er.   How did the Cheese score 4 runs (4.2, really) while the Dragons scored only 1 (1.3, really)?  Batting average doesn’t count for that much in rc/g.  OBP is the biggest factor, with SLG also having weight.  The differences between .231, .378 (Haviland) and .386, .385 (Cottage) should not make a 3 – 1 difference in the runs being scored.

So I did a little study.  Here are the two teams’ lines yesterday:

Team		AB	R	H	2b	3b	HR	RBI	BB	IW	HBP	SO	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OBPS	TB
HD		37	4	7	4		1	2	2			8					3	0.189	0.231	0.378	0.609	14
CC		26	3	6	1		1	3	2			5			1			0.231	0.286	0.385	0.670	10

The big difference?  Double plays.  The Dragons hit in2to 3 of them (2.5 after you account for Casey McGehee’s 50% allocation).  The Cheese avoided them. The Dragons’ line with all those GDPs created 1.76 runs per game.  The Cheese created 3.78. Take out the GDPs and the Dragons’ production goes up to 2.9 rc/g. Those three double plays had the same effect as if the Dragon who hit the home run had struck out instead.

So the GDPs account for at least half of the difference.  The rest has to do with the BA and OBP.  Add one walk and two hits to bring the BA and OBP into line, and you add 1.1 rc/g to the Dragon total. Do that and take out the three GDP and the Dragons’s rc/g goes up to 4.28 (those extra three doubles help). The rest of the difference can be attributed to varying allocations for the hitters.

Today’s lesson is clear:  avoid GDP!

Portland: L, 0 – 5. .161, .212, .161;  0 ip, 0 er.   It’s kind of obvious, but 0-fers will kill your team’s offense. The Rosebuds amassed six 0-fers — seven if you count Kiermaier’s 0 for 0.  The other three Rosebud hitters went for a combined 5 for 12 , but it wasn’t enough to move the needle much.  Also, 9 strikeouts in 31 AB cuts almost a third of a run from the team’s total. Strikeouts aren’t a major problem individually but 30% strikeouts will make a noticeable dent in the team’s offense.

Peshastin:  L, 3 – 4.  .286, .375, .381; 0 ip, 0 er. Three teams already without any pitching Saturday?  I don’t think this is a good idea in general. The Pears, for example, have 8 replacement relief innings.  Couldn’t they talk anyone into going out there Saturday? Oh, and Phil, could you talk to Logan Morrison about the double-play thing?  He just hit into one to kill a Mariner rally.

Pittsburgh: DNP, 2 – (-1).  .348, .444, .565; 19 ip, 7 er.    Clearly the Wolverines and Dragons know how crucial it is to avoid the Alleghenys. Since the A’s began their ascension from the basement, the W’s and the D’s have kicked their games up a notch trying to keep a safe distance ahead. It worked yesterday — the Dragon/Wolverine tag team kept the A’s 5.5 games out of first.   But there is no such thing as a safe lead over Pittsburgh, which is why the W’ and D’s will run like scared rabbits to escape the seismic inevitability of the Alleghenys.

Flint Hill: W, 6 – 5. .250, .341, .333; 0 ip, 0 er. The Tornados have Everth Cabrera at 0%. They have Desmond Jennings at 33% — all at OH where Chris Davis and Andy Dirks also hang out, meaning too many AB are accumulating there.  About 1/7 of them don’t get counted.  Yesterday it all worked out.  Take out Cabrera’s 0 for 4 and a little more than 2/3 of Jennings 1 for 3 and the Flint Hill batting line turns into .287, .407, .389, which is enough to produce more than 6 runs per game. So — you don’t have to stay away from 0-fers if they’re by people you haven’t allocated.

Canberra:  L, 3 – 3. .192, .250, .308;  11 ip, 2 er.  Kangaroos Daniel Norris (first round pick) and Erasmo Ramirez (in his last week as a Kangaroo) had rough starts to 2015.  They faced each other yesterday in some sort of intrasquad deal.  Probably not a good idea — if they kept pitching like they have been they could sink the ‘Roos deep into last place.  But even though I would advise not putting so much kindling on the mound at once, it worked out this time.  Norris did 7 innings, 1 earned run.  Erasmo (who is allocated at 0%, by the way) did  4 and 1.  Whew! It was a good thing because…

Kaline: W 2, L (-1), 7 – 1. .250, .372, .472; 12 ip, 1 er.  Tom Koehler!  He pitched 7 scoreless innings.  You probably want to avoid him right now if you’re a hitter.  Those Drive are not dead yet!