Commissioner Jitters

After yesterday’s multiple Commissioner errors, I am just a little on edge this morning.

 

Old Detroit:  W, 8 – 0.  .295, .347, .523; 28.7 ip, 8 er.  If it weren’t for Erasmo Ramirez — the time bomb the ‘Roos planted in my roster, which is better than most time bombs because it’s prone to going off repeatedly — and his 6 ip, 5 er performance, Sunday could have been really special. As it was, it was just great, led by Francisco Liriano’s kluberian 12 strikeouts in 6 innings and Justin Upton’s 2 for 4 with a double and a homer and 6 RBIs. Liriano and Upton have had trouble living up to expectations, so yesterday was redemptive for both of them.

Haviland: ‘L’, 6 – 6. .381, .481, .857; 1.3 IP, 2 ER.  Six runs doesn’t seem like much for a daily OPS of 1.339. And given the glut of Commissioner errors we’ve been experiencing lately, it makes me nervous. But I can’t find any mistakes this time. And consider these factors:

1.  This is only over 26 plate appearances, (21 AB, 8 hits, 1 2b, 3 hr, 5 walks) so it’s light to begin with.

2.  Three of the top producers (Coghlan, Martinez, and Rosales) are allocated under 100%.  In essence, you lose an entire player’s production amongst them. The line after you take out 1/3 of their work is something more like 18 AB, 6 h, 1 2b, 2 hr, 4 walks.

3.  About half a replacement player (at 3b) is added back in:  20 AB, 6 h, 1 2b, 2 hr, 5 walks, maybe, rounding decimals down for h and 2b, and up for walks.

4.  The Dragons hit into 2 DP and got caught stealing twice.  Each of those is like erasing a walk or a hit.  20 AB, 4 hits, 1 2b 2 hr, 3 walks — an effect made even more dramatic on a light day like this.  That’s something like .200, .304, .550, which would be worth about 6 runs.

Pittsburgh: “L”, 5 – 3.  .219, .342, .406.  1.3 ip, 0 er. The Alleghenys have absorbed the blow of counting Archie Bradley’s stats already, so this mediocre result is all on the players.  Maybe the juggernaut isn’t so juggery as all that after all. Ah, but remember the wise man’s words: “These things can change so fast.” Do not let your hopes get too high just because of a small hesitation.

Cottage: W 2, L (-1); 7 – (-5). .357, .357 .536; 8.3 ip, 0 er.  Plus add back in Clay Buchholz’ 3.54 ERA over 28 innings –accidentally omitted from yesterday’s stats — and you have a very nice day at the Cottage.

Kaline: L, 4 – 5. .257, .316, .343; 13.3 ip, 5 er.   That 3.37 ERA for the day would have added only 3.37-ish runs, except for two factors.  First, the Drive are overflowing with starting pitching.  Starting pitchers can account for mo more than 7 runs a game without duplicating their efforts.  Kaline’s starters have 180.6 ip in 23 May games, or almost 20 extra innings.  Those 20 innings tend to blunt the effects of a good (or a bad) day among the starters. Second, the Drive are short on relief innings. With no relief coming yesterday, 2 relief innings were added to the total, meaning the “real” EFL line was more like 15.3 ip, 6.67 er — which at least gets us to 4 earned runs in 9 innings. The Cheese allowed 4.6 runs; they have a slightly above average defense (36.4), so they allow about 1 unearned run for every 10 earned runs.

Peshastin:  L, 5 – 5. .267, .389, .400; 0.3 ip, 0 er.  Very light day for the Pears — only 18 plate appearances.  That’s not a great number, for a fully-scheduled Sunday.  A team coming up 9 plate appearances short on a Sunday should be running significant replacements , but the Pears only have 15 replacement plate appearances this month, mostly at 2b where Devon Travis is injured and the Pears haven’t posted a replacing move. Peshastin also has piled up 18.7 replacement relief innings.

Flint Hill: W 2, L (-1); 11 – 4. .469, .538, .813;  6 ip, 2 er.  The Tornadoes got a robust 38 plate appearances yesterday, including enough to pick away at the replacements they’ve accumulated at catcher and 1b.  This was enough to give them an EFL-style surge in the standings with the erased loss and all. Evan Gattis’ 3 for 4 with a triple, homer and walk semi-cycle was especially helpful from the catcher’s position.

Canberra: L, 8 – 11.  .308, .379, .538; 10 ip, 10 er. The mighty Kangaroo offense performed again yesterday, adding 2 stolen bases to the hitting to boost things along. But the pitchers betrayed them, especially nonuple chulking Cam Bedrosian with his 3 er in 0.3 ip.

Portland: L, 3 – 4. 194, .237, .417; 13 ip, 6 er.   Mark Canha had a big day — 2 for 3 with a double, a homer and a walk — but the rest of the team could only muster a .151, .177, .273 line.