Logistical Notes Speculations

Expansion Draftiness

I have spent much of my MLK weekend setting up the expansion draft list.  We need to do these more than once every three years, because while I know what I am supposed to produce, I can never remember what process I used the last time I did it.  The one I am using now will end up being the spiffiest list ever, but it’s also taking FOREVER.  I am going to have to set it aside for a while and get some job-related work done. I think I can finish the expansion list by the end of the week.

NEWS: Giancarlo Stanton is on the Expansion List!

Other News: …at the low, low price of  $26,541,667 per year through 2027. Also draft David Wright ($17,400,000 per year through 2020) and Johnny Cueto ($21,666,667 per year through 2021) and you’ll have enough left over to complete your roster with minimum wage players every year for the rest of the decade. (Although — so sad — you won’t be able to afford that 1st pick of the draft. Oh well, maybe next year!… Nope, not even then… but there’s always 2021!)

Before I move on to “real” work, I wanted to share something I stumbled into while lurching around the internet researching the Expansion List:  this Baseball Prospectus article by Sam Miller.  It’s his report on the Internet Baseball Awards — elections for MVP, etc. done by BP readers (I guess).

As usual, we brainiacs in the EFL overperformed on making good use of the best players:

AL Player of the Year:

Rank Player
1 Josh Donaldson
2 Mike Trout  
3 Manny Machado
4 Lorenzo Cain
5 Dallas Keuchel
6 David Price
7 Jose Bautista
8 Nelson Cruz
9 Chris Davis
10 Miguel Cabrera
11 Carlos Correa
12 Chris Sale
13 Kevin Kiermaier
14 Jose Altuve
15 Mookie Betts
16 Edwin Encarnacion
17 Prince Fielder
18 Adrian Beltre
19 J.D. Martinez
20 Sonny Gray
21 Alex Rodriguez
22 Jason Kipnis
23 Chris Archer
24 Wade Davis
25 Xander Bogaerts

The names in bold were ours — 14 out of 25.  Considering our share is only 30%, getting 56% is outstanding.  And their 3-man hoard (nos. 11, 19, 23) might help explain how the Dragons won — and how the Alleghenys slipped into second place at the last second with their own 3-man mother lode.

NL Player of the Year: 

Rank Player
1 Bryce Harper
2 Paul Goldschmidt
3 Jake Arrieta
4 Joey Votto
5 Clayton Kershaw
6 Zack Greinke
7 Andrew McCutchen
8 Anthony Rizzo
9 Nolan Arenado
10 Buster Posey
11 A.J. Pollock
12 Kris Bryant
13 Yoenis Cespedes
14 Max Scherzer
15 Jason Heyward
16 Matt Carpenter
17 Jacob deGrom
18 Madison Bumgarner
19 Carlos Gonzalez
20 Dee Gordon
21 Giancarlo Stanton
22 Curtis Granderson
23 Gerrit Cole
24 Adrian Gonzalez
25 Todd Frazier

12 out of 25, for 26 out of 50 overall. (Maybe 27 — I can’t remember if someone had Jacob deGrom, and I’m too lazy busy to look it up.) Very nice!

The Wolverines got 3 in the NL, so they tied with the Dragons for 5 out of 50 — both leaving those pesky Alleghenys in the dust. So now we’re still searching for explanations. I mean, even the Pears had as many of the top 50 (3) as the Alleghenys.

As usual for a Sam Miller article, the rest of it is well worth reading. I want to highlight one section, about BP’s predictions for Rookie of the Year.

Did I say “highlight”?  I meant “cut and paste.”  According to a whole bunch of my students, there are no important moral issues with doing this, so I’m sure it must be ok:

NL Rookie

The winner: Kris Bryant
The runner-up: Matt Duffy
… [Ed. Note — see that ellipsis? I skipped a part. I am displaying editorial judgment here. So how can it be plagiarism?]

Get hyped: We predicted baseball! Kris Bryant was the staff’s preseason pick for the award, and you are Jack’s complete lack of surprise that he won. But Rookie of the Year is deceptively tough to get right—rookies being inherently unpredictable, of course, but also the complications of playing time, call-up dates and age upon promotion. Here’s how our preseason rookie picks all finished in IBA voting:

Rank Player Actual finish
1 Kris Bryant 1
2 Joc Pederson 6
3 Jorge Soler 16
4 Noah Syndergaard 3
5 Yasmany Tomas 29
6 Jung-Ho Kang 4
7 Archie Bradley No votes
8 Michael Taylor 24
8 Hector Olivera No votes
10 Marco Gonzales No votes
10 Steven Matz 15
10 Kyle Crick No votes
10 Jon Gray 25
10 Raisel Iglesias No votes

Not named: Matt Duffy, who got only three first-place checkmarks from IBA voters (fewer than Syndergaard and Kang) but who nearly lapped the field for second-place votes. All in all, though, we could have done a lot worse.

No, really, we could have done a lot worse.

[AL Rookie – see, here I’m inserting a heading Miller left out so you can understand this chart. More editorial judgment!)

Rank Player Actual finish
1 Carlos Rodon 8
2 Rusney Castillo 42
3 Daniel Norris 22
4 Dalton Pompey 42
5 Steven Souza 20
6 Aaron Sanchez 16
7 Andrew Heaney 12
8 Alex Meyer No votes
9 Kendall Graveman 36
9 Francisco Lindor 2
11 Rob Refsnyder 52
11 Brandon Finnegan No votes
13 Carlos Correa 1
14 Keone Kela 42
14 Ryan Rua No votes
14 Dylan Bundy No votes
14 Micah Johnson No votes
14 Chi Chi Gonzalez 41
[end of quote]

What are the take-aways?

  1.  The D.C. Balk need a Baseball Prospectus subscription right now so they can follow a trustworthy source, rather than our biased advice, and invest that precious first pick on Carlos Rodon.
  2. To answer Ryan’s question maybe 8 months late: yes, apparently we all did know something about Raisel Iglesias you didn’t know. Although I admit I didn’t know until just now what I knew that you didn’t.
  3. Who is Kyle Crick?
  4. This adds a poignant layer to the amusement most of us felt last spring watching John nearly pass out when the computer took Rusney Castillo after somebody had spent the league’s second-round pre-emption on sure-fire-Hall-of-Famer Arismendy Alcantara.  I remember getting a little thrill then, seeing the Dragons’ season crumble into ruins before it had even begun.  All that drama for the 42nd best rookie (tied) in the American League!

3 Comments

  • >This adds a poignant layer to the amusement most of us felt last spring

    I’m not sure “poignant” is the correct word, here. “Neener, Neener” puts it more succinctly, I think.

  • One other note — I think I’ve told some people that each EFL team can protect 15 players in the expansion draft. I was wrong. Each EFL team can only protect 14 players in the expansion draft.

    The good news — you can’t lose more than one player in the expansion draft.

    So — to summarize:

    1. A week before the Winter Meeting and its Rule 5 draft, you need to submit your roster showing no more than 20 names protected from the Rule 5 draft. You can lose (and gain) up to 2 players in the Rule 5 draft.

    2. A week before the as-yet unscheduled Expansion Draft (to be held mid-February) you’ll need to submit your roster again with up to 14 players marked as protected. You can lose 1 player in the Expansion Draft.

    3. The D.C. Balk will be drafting against the legendary Dundee Dummies in the Expansion Draft. At the Winter Meeting we’ll form a committee of 2 or 3 EFL owners qualified to work for the Dummies during the expansion draft. (Alas, I cannot be on the Dummies Draft Committee since I need to serve as the neutral manager of the draft.) The Dummies will do their best to build the core of a good expansion team, in the process soaking up half the good players. But those players will be held on Fantasy Farsi Island only until the draft is over, and then will be immediately released back to their original state as a sign of improving relations.

    • One more reminder: The salary cap is $87,500,000. That means the first round pre-emption requires an OPENING bid of $11,500,000.