A month or so ago I published a list of rookies as the drafting program rated them. I only included the players that had a nonzero probability of being drafted #1 overall (ignoring the completely random pick which has a 3% chance of happening on any pick). But maybe you want to know more. I ran the first round of computer picks (21 instead of 20 because I didn’t know then that we would have an expansion team) 10000 times (ignoring the 3% random pick) and here are all the players who got selected, ranked in the order the computer views them:
1 Bryant Kris
2 Osuna Roberto
3 Herrera Odubel
4 Lindor Francisco
5 Syndergaard Noah
6 Russell Addison
7 Rodriguez Eduardo
8 Tepera Ryan
9 Kela Keone
10 Correa Carlos
11 Kang JungHo
12 Rivero Felipe
13 DeShields Delino
14 Anderson Cody
15 McCullers Lance
16 Canha Mark
17 Rosario Eddie
18 Cunniff Brandon
19 Gott Trevor
20 Osich Josh
21 Robles Hansel
22 Graham JR
23 Rodon Carlos
24 Marte Ketel
25 Goforth David
26 Severino Luis
27 Oberg Scott
28 Eickhoff Jerad
29 Gilmartin Sean
30 Conforto Michael
31 Jungmann Taylor
32 Givens Mychal
33 Nola Aaron
34 Tomas Yasmany
35 Sano Miguel
36 Schwarber Kyle
37 ORourke Ryan
38 Swihart Blake
39 Seager Corey
40 Thompson Trayce
41 Tucker Preston
42 Iglesias Raisel
43 Duffey Tyler
44 Saladino Tyler
45 Piscotty Stephen
46 Perez Carlos
47 Lorenzen Michael
48 Araujo Elvis
We have picks 1, 3, 7, 11, 16 19, 25, 28, 29 and 30. So, if things went according to the computer’s predictions, and we all picked like the computer, here’s what we’d get in the first round:
DC gets Kris Bryant
PR gets Odubel Herrera
KD gets Eduardo Rodriguez
OD gets Jung Ho Kang
CC gets Mark Canha
PP gets Trevor Gott
FH gets David Goforth
CK gets Jerad Eickhoff
PA gets Sean Gilmartin
HC gets Michael Conforto
I think I could get behind a commitment to follow this slavishly, and then have freedom to go after later rounds as we see fit.
Some of you might prefer to step out of line and pick players scheduled to come after you, but think about it: such an agreement would leave some real riches to the second round! If you think you should be able to reach back and snag a Syndergaard or a Correa, others will reach back and take a Tomas and a Sano. Wouldn’t it be worth getting a slightly lesser light in the first round in order to preserve more talent for later?
Here I am, with the least money left in the draft, least able to compete in later rounds of bidding, proposing a scheme that would put a premium on available cash. And I’m not even the one who ends up with Kris Bryant. How could you not agree to this plan?
And isn’t it your duty as a patriotic EFLer to keep top players from being taken by the computer? If you dally with a 34th pick when you have the 3rd pick, you are letting prime talent disappear into the computer’s maw. It would be another alcantastrophe!
Here, as a reminder, is our draft order:
D.C. Balk 1
Philadelphia Phillies 2
Portland Rosebuds 3
Atlanta Braves 4
Colorado Rockies 5
Oakland A’s 6
Kaline Drive 7
San Diego Padres 8
Detroit Tigers 9
Seattle Mariners 10
Canberra Kangaroos 11 (1st Round to Old Detroit)
Boston Red Sox 12
Arizona D’backs 13
Baltimore Orioles 14
Cleveland Indians 15
Cottage Cheese 16
Washington Nationals 17
San Francisco Giants 18
Peshastin Pears 19
Houston Astros 20
New York Yankees 21
Texas Rangers 22
Los Angeles Dodgers 23
Toronto Blue Jays 24
Flint Hill Tornadoes 25
Kansas City Royals 26
Pittsburgh Pirates 27
O. Detroit Wolverines 28 (1st rd. to Canberra)
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 29
Haviland Dragons 30