Speculations

A Just-So Draft

A rookie draft in the EFL is supposed to accomplish all the following:

–Nothing should come easy. Computer picks should frustrate us all a moderate amount. Fellow EFL owners should frustrate us all almost more than we can bear.

— We should all feel like we wrested some of what we  wanted away from the draft and each other, through guile, guts, and willpower.

— We should all feel like someone else did the same at our expense.

— The teams who finished lower in the standings last time should have a little more success than the ones who finished near the top.

 

I can check off each item on the list, from my perspective.  And I have already had a note from one owner who felt this was one of the funnest drafts ever.  Thanks to everyone who made it go smoothly — John for the technology and hosting us, Mark J for the coffee, and Dave for the treats and the improved recordkeeping.

 

So we all won in the sense we had a mutually enjoyable draft.   What a nice thought…

 

Aw, come on, who am I kidding?  What’s the point of a draft that everyone wins?  Obviously someone did better than everyone else.  What we want to know is “who”!

 

And I have the answer, measuring success in three different ways, from crudest to best:

1> Who got the most players?

2> Who added the most projected wins to his team?

3> Who spent his money the wisest — that is, who got his wins cheapest?

 

  1.  The team that got the most players was:  The DC Balk!  We drafted as a group 55 players, which would average 5.5 each.  The Balk came away with 14 of them. In a very distant second place were Cottage and Canberra, each with 7.  The teams with the fewest: Kaline and Pittsburgh, with 2 each.
  2. The team that added the most projected wins?  I looked up each drafted player on Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs to see how many wins above replacement they were projected to produce.  Then I averaged the BP and FG WARs, and added them up for each team.  Here is how we finished in terms of adding wins to our stockpiles of talent:
DC 6.8
KD 6.55
PR 6.3
CK 5.9
OD 5.65
PP 5.45
CC 5.45
HD 4.65
FH 4.15
PA 1.35

Notice how the number of wins we added correlates pretty strongly with how many losses we suffered last season.  This means the draft worked to give weaker teams a chance to catch up a little.

 

3.  Who spent most effectively?  Cottage spent most… period, at $43.5 million.  DC was right behind at $41.0 million.  Pittsburgh spent the least: only $7.75 million — which was $7.75 million more than the Allegheny’s spent last year. (Welcome back to the Rookie Draft, Mark!)

The average EFL team spent $5,023,950 for each win it added to its projected WAR.  Cottage spent $7,981,650 per win.  Two teams were super-efficient, spending only about half as much as the average team per win:  the Rosebuds spent only $2,777,780 per win, which is amazing, but not as amazing as the Kaline Drive, who got their 6.55 wins at the low, low price of $2,366,41 per win.

 

So — who won the draft?  DC added the most wins, and got the most players, but Kaline and Portland also added a lot of wins and did it much  more effectively.  Sometimes less is more — and I’d say, by getting the second most wins with the least amount of money spent, Kaline Drive won the draft.

 

Congratulations, Kaline.  So far you’re having the best season of anyone in the EFL!

 

 

Team     Players   $$ fWAR WARP Average $$/War
Haviland 28250 5.4 3.9 4.65 6075.268817
Miguel Sano 11500 3.5 3.1 3.3 3484.848485
Gary Sanchez 4750 0.6 0.1 0.35 13571.42857
Miguel Almonte 1000 0.1 0.2 0.15 6666.666667
Vincent Velasquez 11000 1.2 0.5 0.85 12941.17647
Pittsburgh 7750 1.1 1.6 1.35 5740.740741
Socrates Brito 1500 -0.1 0.1 0 #DIV/0!
Stephen Piscotty 6250 1.2 1.5 1.35 4629.62963
Old Detroit 19500 5.4 5.9 5.65 3451.327434
Kyle Schwarber 11500 2.7 3.5 3.1 3709.677419
Austin Hedges 750 0.2 0.4 0.3 2500
Brandon Drury 2000 0.1 0.1 0.1 20000
Michael Broadway 1000 0.1 0.3 0.2 5000
John Lamb 3750 1.5 1.2 1.35 2777.777778
Colin Rea 500 0.8 0.4 0.6 833.3333333
Flint Hill 17500 2.6 5.7 4.15 4216.86747
Brian Johnson 1000 0.3 0.5 0.4 2500
Alex Meyer 1000 0.5 0.4 0.45 2222.222222
Tony Zych 4000 0.2 0.2 0.2 20000
Byron Buxton 11500 1.6 4.6 3.1 3709.677419
Peshastin 35250 5 5.9 5.45 6467.889908
Severino Gonzalez 1000 0 0.5 0.25 4000
Raisel Iglesias 11500 2.9 2 2.45 4693.877551
Frankie Montas 4000 0 0.1 0.05 80000
Joey Gallo 7250 0.8 1.1 0.95 7631.578947
Trea Turner 11500 1.3 2.2 1.75 6571.428571
Cottage 43500 6.5 4.4 5.45 7981.651376
Archie Bradley 4000 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.4
Tim Cooney 4250 0.3 0.3 0.3 1
Luis Severino 9750 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.210526316
Matt Wisler 4750 0.5 0.7 0.6 7916.666667
Greg Bird 3250 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Max Kepler 6000 0.1 0.1 0.1 60000
Addison Russell 11500 2.6 1.5 2.05 5609.756098
Canberra 36500 6.1 5.7 5.9 6186.440678
Shawn Armstrong 3000 0.3 0.4 0.35 8571.428571
Adrian Houser 750 0.1 0 0.05 15000
Stephen Matz 11500 2.2 1.6 1.9 6052.631579
Austin Barnes 2250 0.2 0 0.1 22500
Michael Conforto 12500 2.1 2.5 2.3 5434.782609
Richie Shaffer 500 0 0.1 0.05 10000
Blake Swihart 6000 1.2 1.1 1.15 5217.391304
Kaline 15500 7.4 5.7 6.55 2366.412214
Kris Bryant 11500 5.8 4.8 5.3 2169.811321
Carlos Perez 4000 1.6 0.9 1.25 3200
Portland 17500 7.1 5.5 6.3 2777.777778
Adam Conley 1000 0.3 0.4 0.35 2857.142857
Jonathan Gray 4000 2.3 1.2 1.75 2285.714286
Tyler Wagner 500 0.1 0.1 0.1 5000
Carlos Correa 11500 4.4 3.7 4.05 2839.506173
Cheslor Cuthbert 500 0 0.1 0.05 10000
DC 41000 6.4 7.1 6.8 6074.074074
Elvis Araujo 2250 0 0.3 0.15 15000
Kyle Barraclough 1250 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Jorge Lopez 4750 0.4 0.2 0.3 15833.33333
Henry Owens 5750 0.2 0.3 0.25 23000
Ramon Cabrera 500 0.2 -0.3 -0.05 -10000
Matt Duffy (Hou) 2250 0.1 0.2 0.15 15000
Tayler Featherston 750 0 0.5 0.25 3000
Ramon Flores 500 0.5 0.3 0.4 1250
Adonis Garcia 3500 1 0.6 0.8 4375
Hector Olivera 2750 0.8 0.7 0.75 3666.666667
Scott Schebler 3500 0.1 0.8 0.45 7777.777778
Corey Seager 11500 2.8 3 2.9 3965.517241
Giovanny Urshela 1750 0.3 0.5 0.4 4375
Average EFL Team 26225 5.3 5.14 5.22 5023.94636
League Totals 262250 53 51.4 52.2 5023.94636
Ave Player 55 4768.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 5023.94636

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Comment

  • As the new club on the block, I just want to say that I had a heck of a good time at yesterday’s draft. Doubtless I made plenty of rookie mistakes in my picks and spending, but am really looking forward to things to come. I especially appreciate everyone’s good spirit.

    And I’d like to second the kudos to all who made it happen through attention to technology, treats and organization.

    All of a sudden, I seem to have a baseball team….