League Updates

A package of surprises

My dad is not a big baseball fan.  I had to wheedle my uncle to get someone to take me to my first baseball game when I was 9.  My mom knew more about the game while I was growing up. Even though she grew up in Anderson, Indiana, she was a Dodger fan because Carl Erskine came from Anderson.

But my dad made one of the most insightful comments about baseball I’ve ever heard once while we were sitting in the stands down the right field line at Tiger Stadium.  Kent Hrbek had just hit a homer onto the third deck porch in right field — hey, this is my memory here, don’ you go checking Baseball Reference! — when my dad said “I think baseball is essentially a package of surprises.”

(My memory has us looking down at Hrbek’s booming fly ball for its entire trajectory, which would be impossible unless we were sitting on the roof of the stadium and the fly ball was a 600- foot line drive interrupted at its highest point as it hit that abandoned right field 3rd deck porch.   But I assure you that’s the only thing improbable about this memory!)

This was before Forrest Gump — who essentially stole Dad’s insight and dressed it up as a box of chocolates.

If he meant baseball is just random events, then he was accusing it of being just a super-elaborate game of Candyland.  It isn’t. Players are generally neck-deep in randomness; the outcome of any pitch is unknown until it happens.  The best players find ways to surf baseball’s massive randomness, to bend results over a season a little bit in their favor. It takes commitment to their craft and concentration and effort, sometimes to push inherently random events only a tiny, essentially imperceptible distance in one’s own favor.

But then there are big surprises!  Maybe they are extreme outliers in the bell curve.  Or maybe they are stunning human achievements in bending the bell curve.  Let’s see what came out of the package of surprises yesterday.

EFL
Team Wins Losses Pct. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 46 24 .657 397.2 288.1
Portland Rosebuds 44 28 .613 2.9 367.6 286.5
Haviland Dragons 43 29 .595 4.2 354.7 296.5
Canberra Kangaroos 40 32 .562 6.5 350.0 305.8
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 38 32 .536 8.5 338.0 312.2
Flint Hill Tornadoes 36 34 .521 9.6 311.5 299.2
Peshastin Pears 37 35 .514 10 313.4 303.7
Cottage Cheese 34 35 .491 11.6 338.6 337.7
Kaline Drive 28 44 .384 19.3 324.6 411.9
D.C. Balk 23 49 .325 23.6 279.2 409.5

Old Detroit:  W 2, L (-1);  6 – (-5).  (.325, .404, .475;  16 ip, 2 er).  Anthony DiSclafani and Corey Kluber combined for 16 ip, 2 er Tuesday.   You may remember the pleasant surprise Old Detroit got a couple of weeks ago when Kolten Wong was demoted to AAA for sucking at hitting, allowing the Wolverines to plug the hot-hitting prospect Jurickson Profar into the lineup.  Well, Wong went town to Memphis and hit .429, .529, .929 0ver 34 plate appearance.  So now Wong is back, playing outfield! And hitting .231, .286, .231… So no surprise, really.

Portland: W, 4 – 2. (.263, .341, .421; 24.3 ip, 7 er).  The Rosebuds have the league’s second best offense (after the W’s) and best pitching/defense (just ahead of the Dragons and the W’s, who are essentially tied).  Johnny Cueto leads the defense with his 1.30 ERA.  Who leads the offense is hard to tell.  No Rosebud is OPsing over 1.000 in June.  But SIX Rosebuds have OPSes between .990 and .932!  (They go .990, .985, .977, .964, .960, and .932.)  They play, in order, OF, SS, SS, Util (OF and IF), C, Util (OF and IF).  So the Rosebud OPS bell curve looks like the east half of Mr. Rainier, viewed from Seattle, with the west half surgically removed. In other words: highly improbable!

Haviland: “W”, 2 – 3. (.231, .286, .462;  3.7 ip, 0 er)  Five Dragons have started and pitched more than 20 innings in June — ranging from Gausman’s 20.3 to Archer’s 25.7, with Carrasco, Duffy, and Carlos Martinez ranged in between.  Which one of those would you expect to have the lowest ERA in June?  Who do you suppose that is, and what was his ERA?  Hints — Gausman is highest at 5.75; then Archer (4.56), Carrasco (3.96) and Duffy (3.09).   Martinez leads the team at 1.69.

Also — the team’s best hitter in June is J.D. Martinez — or was, until he was injured. Of course the leader among active Dragons is… Kurt Suzuki, with his 1.012 OPS.  And the second best?  Why, of course, Hank Conger (.968).  Good thing they got Chris Herrmann in the last draft!

Canberra: W (-1), L 2; 2 – 8. (.220, .273, .320;  2.7 ip, 4 er).  Not a great day in D.C. where Canberra management is these days.  Very hot. Not the Kangaroos — just the weather. Bryce Harper loves the heat — he managed a 1.400 OPS yesterday.  Michael Tonkin isn’t  a fan, though: 1.7 ip, 4 er in June.  The surprise? Maybe a guy whose ERA after 9 June innings is 4.00, but whose FIP is 0.88 because of his 13 strikeouts and only 2 walks?  That would be 2015 first-round pick Shane Greene.  So it’s only a surprise if you look at it from a certain recent-centric perspective.

Pittsburgh: W, 5 – 4.  (.343, .395, .629;  8.7 ip. 4 er.)  Mike Trout isn’t having a monster month: .254, .359, .433: very pedestrian by his standards, only the 3rd best on the Alleghenys.  You probably could guess #2, if you’ve been paying any attention: EWIE Jose Altuve.  #1?  Pedro Alvarez!. This clearly surprised Allegheny management, too: Pedro is allocated at only 50% this month.

Peshastin: “L”, 5 – 5.  (.222, .282, .500;  4.3 ip, 0 er) Zack Cozart has been a shock this year. Normally a classic no-hit all-star glove, Yesterday he went 2 for 4 with a homer and a walk. For the month his OPS sits at a showy .878, better than Trevor Story or Devon Travis.  Oh, here’s another shock: an eighth pitcher has appeared this month for the Kangaroos — Raisel Iglesias and his 2 scoreless innings.

Flint Hill: W, 7 – 3.  (.286, .372, .514; 8.7 ip. 2 er). I never thought I’d see Jesse Hahn with a 22.85 June ERA, 11 er in 4.3 innings.   The most effective Tornado twirler?  How about a guy Tornado management didn’t even think was worth activating at the beginning of the month? Doug Fister now leads the FH starting rotation with an ERA of 1.71.

Cottage: W, 6 – 1. (.282, .333, .410;  12.7 ip, 3 er).  Here’s a surprise: the Cheese have 4 guys OPSing over 1.000 for June:  Wil Myers (1.245), Jorge Soler (1.084); Salvador Perez (1.035); and Jay Bruce (1.040).  Bruce reached that height thanks to a 3 for 4 day yesterday with a homer and a double.  Both Bruce and Myers can be viewed as disappointments before this year — LOTS of hype, much less production.  But Bruce’s resurrection is more surprising given his relatively advanced age (29) compared to Myers’ (25).

Kaline: W, 3 – 3. (.216, .256, .405;  19.3 ip, 9 er).  Michael Saunders’ June line: .355, .414, .774.  Sigh. That’s better than I ever hoped he’d be — a very pleasant surprise if you’re a Drive fan (or a Canadian).  On the other end, I never thought I’d see Marcus Stroman with a monthly OPS worse than replacement (7.89).  Joe Kelly’s is worse (27.00) thanks to a single triple chulk, but his owners’ staunched the bleeding by refusing to let him pitch again.

D.C.: L, 3 – 7. (.227, .320, .273;  2.7 ip, 1 er).  Corey Seager OPSing .964 in June?  Not a schock, we all knew he had that in him.  Mitch Moreland’s .951 OPS?  Well, his established track record is about .200 points lower, but we’ve seen stuff like this in past for spurts. Franklin Gutierrez’ .867 OPS?  A wonderful surprise considering what his health did to him, but not in light of his demonstrated ability.  I’m going for Robbie Grossman’s .875 June OPS, including his one for 3 with a double and two walks yesterday.  I had barely heard of him this spring despite spending half the winter setting up drafts. I’m still not entirely sure who he is.  But whoever he is, he’s got a showy set of batting statistics.