The other day I posted in a comment to Dave’s confession of avarice, greed, and connivery a comment purporting to give you PECOTA’s predictions for the outcome of the 2017 pennant race, like this:
DC: 74 – 88 (12.0 WAR offense, 10.0 WAR pitching)
Flint Hill: 82 – 80 (19.7 WAR offense, 8.1 WAR pitching)
Canberra: 83 – 79 (16.5 WAR offense, 12.5 WAR pitching)
Pittsburgh: 84 – 78 (20.0 WAR offense, 10.3 WAR pitching)
Haviland: 87 – 75 (18.8 WAR offense, 13.9 WAR pitching)
Kaline: 89 – 73 (22.2 WAR offense, 13.3 WAR pitching)
Old Detroit: 94 – 68 (23.3 WAR offense, 16.9 WAR pitching)
Cottage: 96 – 66 (30.4 WAR offense, 11.1 WAR pitching)
Peshastin: 99 – 63 (27.7 WAR offense, 16.1 WAR pitching)
Portland: 101 – 61 (29.6 WAR offense, 17.5 WAR pitching)
But then I discovered I had not finished all my updates to our BP rosters. I have now done so. Here are the corrected predictions (again: SCROLL DOWN SLOWLY for added dramatic effect):
DC: 76 – 86 (12.4 WAR offense, 10.0 WAR pitching, 22.4 total)
Flint Hill: 82 – 80 (20.2 WAR offense, 7.9 WAR pitching, 28.1 total)
Pittsburgh: 85– 77 (20.4 WAR offense, 10.3 WAR pitching, 30.7 total)
Canberra: 87 – 79 (20.8 WAR offense, 12.5 WAR pitching, 33.3 total)
Haviland: 88 – 74 (18.8 WAR offense, 15.0 WAR pitching, 33.8 total)
Kaline: 91 – 71 (23.7 WAR offense, 13.2 WAR pitching, 36.9 total)
Old Detroit: 95 – 67 (23.3 WAR offense, 17.7 WAR pitching, 41.0 total)
Portland: 96 – 66 (25.9 WAR offense, 15.9 WAR pitching, 41.8 total)
Cottage: 99 – 63 (30.4 WAR offense, 14.9 WAR pitching, 45.3 total)
Peshastin: 102 – 60 (31.8 WAR offense, 16.3 WAR pitching, 48.1 total)
Caveat: BP is a little bit eccentric with some of its predictions (Welington Castillo: -0.3 WARP? James McCann: – 0.6? Omar Narvaez: -1.2? Is Yasmani Grandal eating his fellow catchers? Is that how he got his bloated 6.3 WARP rating?) and assumes a replacement team would win about 54 games.
Still – it’s all right there: Canberra slips past Pittsburgh. Kaline is projected to pass 90 wins. Cottage is on the verge of 100 wins. Peshastin is over 100. And Portland tumbles to third place, practically in the Wolverines’ laps.
But here’s the important thing: the Cheesy Perfidy STILL does not attain its main goal, because the Pears — isn’t this sweet, the Cheese’ hated rival Pears, of all teams — stand athwart the path and declare “You shall not pass!”
I can think of only one story line that would be better. Oddly enough, I think 9 of you might agree on that.