League Updates

Outliers or Outliars?

It’s still early in the season — this is how Wolverine fans greet each other every time.  “It’s still early in the season. Manny Machado will not bat .176 all year.”  But they could also greet each other less cheerily: “It’s still early.  Clayton Richard is still a mirage.”

Perhaps one could triangulate to an accurate vision of the future by taking into account both the highs and the lows in early season stats.  If we homogenize them this way, can we foresee our teams’ futures?  Let’s find out.

EFL Standings for 2017
EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Cottage Cheese 13 3 .804 102.2 50.5
Peshastin Pears 12 4 .753 0.8 69.5 39.9
Haviland Dragons 10 6 .620 2.9 101.7 79.5
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 9 6 .610 3.2 62.1 49.7
Kaline Drive 9 7 .562 3.9 63.8 56.3
Flint Hill Tornadoes 7 7 .519 4.6 58.9 56.7
Portland Rosebuds 7 9 .435 5.9 58.0 66.1
Canberra Kangaroos 6 9 .387 6.6 53.6 67.4
Old Detroit Wolverines 5 9 .365 6.8 47.0 61.9
D.C. Balk 5 10 .324 7.5 64.4 93.0
Cottage:  W,  10 – 3.  (.357, .387, .857;  no pitching).  The Cheese are OPSin .904 as a team. Their team ERA is 3.05. Sick. But that’s not our focus today. What we want to know is:  Who are the Cheese’ best and worst, so far? Hitters: Bryce Harper (68 PA, .400, .515, .818);  Maikel Franco (10 for 58, .172, .246, .362). Pitchers: Archie Bradley (9.3 ip, 0 er); Sean Manaea (16.3 ip, 10 er –but 20 SO v. 9 walks, so he’s going to get better) (just great).
Peshastin: DNP,  1 – (-2). (.292, .393, .542; 3.3 ip, 2 er).  Hitters: Probably Khris Davis (1.071 OPS in 64 PA) but I’m going with Trey Mancini (.321, .367, .786 in 30 PA);  Devon Travis (.104, .173, .104 over 31 PA).
Haviland:  W, 10 – 6.  (.353, .450, .941; 11 ip, 6 er). Hitters:  Zach Cozart (!) (53 PA, .400, .481, .667)… don’t believe it? OK, how about Steven Souza (73 PA, .349, .438, .603)… can’t imagine former Hagerstown Suns as star hitters? OK how about Geovany Soto (18 PA, .267, .389, .867)… too few plate appearances?  Boy are you picky… OK, OK,: Miguel Sano (65 PA, .235, .400, .588).   Well, Jabari Blash and Raisel Tapia have 17 PA between them without a hit.  Next worse — and here the rest of the league will heave a sigh of relief — is Gary Sanchez (24 PA, .150, .190, .300). Pitchers: Ervin Santana (28 ip, 2 er, 0.64 ERA);  Tyler Glasnow (6.7 ip, 9 er, 12.15 ERA).
Pittsburgh: W, 5 – 0.  (.258, .361, .387;  13 ip, 2 er).  Hitters:  Jake Marisnick is batting .313, .450, .688 but only has 19 PA.  Tyler Flowers (.407, .484, .444) has only 31 PA.  Michael Brantley is the best full-time hitter (56 PA, .286, .375, .469).  Not that great for a 4th place team.  Pitchers:  Stephen Strasburg (28 ip, 9 er, 29 k, 2.89 ERA); Jake Odorizzi (13 ip, 6 er, 4.15). Yes — the worst Allegheny pitcher is better than the Wolverine team.
Kaline:  L, 4 – 8.   (.235, .316, .353;  4.3 ip, 5 er).  Pitchers:  James Paxton compiled 23 scoreless innings before getting beat up a little bit last night.  He’s still the best of the Drive with 25.3 ip, 30 k, 5 er, 1.78 ERA.   The worst:  Jhoulys Chacin (23 ip, 12 r, 4.70).  That’s a pretty high floor.  Hitters:  It would be Christian Vazquez (.563, .611, .875) if he had more than  18 plate appearances.  Yoenis Cespedes (68 PA, .263, .377, .632) and Aaron Judge (53 PA, .277, .358, .660) are his competitors.  Leonys Martin, alas, is the Basketcase of the Drive:  57 PA, .111, .172, .139.
Flint Hill: L, 3 – 6. (.167, .211, .222;  1.3 ip, 0 er). HittersDaniel Murphy (64 PA, .344, .375, .557);  John Jaso (.100, .217, .100).  Pitchers:  Brad Hand and Tony Zych have combined for 9 scoreless innings.  Otherwise the best is CoreyKnebel (8.3 ip, 1 ER, 12 k, 4 bb).  
Portland:  W 1, L (-1); (-1) – (-8). (.167, .286, .292;  8 ip, 0 er). Hitters:  either Corey Dickerson (63 PA, .322, .365, .576) or Yasiel Puig (65 PA, .273, .273, .545).  At the other end of the offensive spectrum: Carlos Perez ( 13 pa, 1 single).  Pitchers: Chris Sale (29.7 ip, 3 er, 42 k !!); Jimmy Nelson (18.3 ip, 9 er, 4.42). 
Canberra:  L, 2 – 9. (.219, .212, .281;  6.3 ip 7 er). Just an awful day in Canberra.  Alas.  Hitters: Michael Conforto (29 PA, .320, .387, .600) or Mark Reynolds (60 PA, .291, .344, .564). More abysmally, Billy Hamilton (66 PA, .226, .269, .274).  Pitchers: Blake Snell (16.3 IP, 5 er, 2.76); at the bottom, the tandem of Dan Altavilla (7.3 ip, 6 er ) and Shawn Armstrong (5.3 ip,  5 er).  High floor, low ceiling, team ERA of 4.18.
Old Detroit: “L”, 4 – 3. (.214, .267, .357; 6.7 ip, 1 er). Hitters: Kyle Schwarber (68 PA, .232, .368, .446); Steve Pearce (.154, .214, .154).  Pitchers: Clayton Richard (26.7 ip, 9 er, 3.04 ERA) or maybe Madison Bumgarner (27 ip, 9 er, 3.00 ERA) (probably Madison, considering Richard is just a mirage); Corey Kluber (18.3 ip, 13 er, 6.38 ERA).
DC:  L, 4 – 7.  (.233, .303, .267; 0 ip).  Hitters:  Mitch Moreland ( 69 PA, .344, .420, .574); Phil Gosselin (1 for 13, .077, .077, .077).  Pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson (17 ip, 3 er, 13 s0); Jeff Samardzija (19 ip, 13 er, 6.16 era). If Samardzija is your worst pitcher (who struck out 24 in 19 innings, with 6 walks) you are in great shape.
AL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Baltimore Orioles 10 4 .714
New York Yankees 10 5 .667 0.5
Boston Red Sox 10 6 .625 1
Tampa Bay Rays 9 8 .529 2.5
Flint Hill Tornadoes 7 7 .519 2.7
Old Detroit Wolverines 5 9 .365 4.9
Toronto Blue Jays 3 12 .200 7.5
NL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Washington Nationals 10 5 .667
Miami Marlins 8 7 .533 2
New York Mets 8 8 .500 2.5
Atlanta Braves 6 9 .400 4
Philadelphia Phillies 6 9 .400 4
Canberra Kangaroos 6 9 .387 4.2
D.C. Balk 5 10 .324 5.1
AL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 9 6 .610
Detroit Tigers 8 7 .533 1.1
Chicago White Sox 8 7 .533 1.1
Cleveland Indians 7 7 .500 1.6
Minnesota Twins 7 8 .467 2.1
Kansas City Royals 7 8 .467 2.1
NL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Cottage Cheese 13 3 .804
Cincinnati Reds 9 7 .563 3.9
Chicago Cubs 8 7 .533 4.4
Milwaukee Brewers 9 8 .529 4.4
Pittsburgh Pirates 6 9 .400 6.4
St. Louis Cardinals 6 10 .375 6.9
AL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Houston Astros 11 5 .688
Haviland Dragons 10 6 .620 1.1
Kaline Drive 9 7 .562 2
Oakland A’s 8 8 .500 3
Seattle Mariners 7 10 .412 4.5
Los Angeles Angels 7 10 .412 4.5
Texas Rangers 6 10 .375 5
NL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Peshastin Pears 12 4 .753
Colorado Rockies 10 6 .625 2
Arizona Diamondbacks 10 7 .588 2.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 8 8 .500 4
Portland Rosebuds 7 9 .435 5.1
San Diego Padres 7 10 .412 5.5
San Francisco Giants 6 10