Big Brother Is Trying To Take Over the EFL!

About a year ago I warned everyone of the Portland Rosebuds’ impending dominance of the EFL.  Projections by Fangraphs, confirmed by most other projectors, had the Rosebuds running away with our league, already at 50+ wins above replacement with all the spring drafts still to go.

The Rosebuds were subtle about it, letting several other teams dream for a while about winning, even staying out of first place until July. Then, in a masterstroke, they ceded first place to the Wolverines on the last day of July, let the poor W’s believe for an entire month, and then crushed them in September, winning by almost as big a margin as I had predicted in January.

Well, friends, Mark Johnson is at it again. Except this year we discover he has a big brother!

 

Flint Hill	Tornados	(Jamie	Johnson)	Players:21  Spent:76,000  Rem:23,500	WAR	46.1
Portland	Rosebuds	(Mark	Johnson)	Players:14  Spent:52,000  Rem:47,500	WAR	45.2
Cottage	Cheese	(Dave	Votaw)	Players:28  Spent:59,500  Rem:40,000	WAR	38.3
Canberra	Kangaroos	(Ryan	Mock)	Players: 19   Spent: 46,633  Bal: 52,867	WAR	38.2
Old Detroit	Wolverines	(Ron	Mock)	Players: 21  Spent: 36,500  Rem: 63,000	WAR	38.1
Pittsburgh	Alleghenys	(Mark	Weinert)	Players 22,  Spent: 58,500  Rem:41,000	WAR	35.9
Peshastin	Pears	(Phil	Smith)	Players:27  Spent:38,000  Rem:61,500	WAR	32.8
D.C.	Balk	(Rob	Bohall)	Players:20  Spent:54,000  Rem:45,500	WAR	33.8
Haviland	Dragons	(John	Johnson)	Players:18  Spent:47,000  Rem:52,500	WAR	30.5
Kaline	Drive	(Tom	Johnson)	Players:19  Spent: 32,750  BAL:66,750	WAR	29.6
Brookland	Outs	(Brooks	Lampe)	Players: 14   Spent: 42,500  Bal: 59,000	WAR	17.4

Some notes:

1.  That 7 to 8 game gap between the front-running brothers and the cluster of nearest competitors is going to be hard to close.  Even the Wolverines, with $15,500,000 extra to spend, can only expect to gain a game or two at current prices for wins.
2. The Tornados are relying heavily on Mike Trout (9.2 WAR) and their second-most-valuable player, newly-acquired James Paxton (4.0 WAR).
3. There’s trouble ahead for the Tornados, however.  They have the least money to spend, by a substantial margin. And they traded away their first round draft pick to the third-place Cheese.
4. Whereas the Tornados are spending $33,750,000 on Paxton and Trout to get 13.2 WAR, the Rosebuds are spending $16,500,000 on Sale (6.6 WAR) and Betts (7.4 WAR) to get 14 WAR.
5. The Cheese spend $2,00o,000 on their two best players (Corey Seager 5.6 and Luis Severino 4.6) to get 10.2 WAR.
6. The Kangaroos spend $13,500,000 on Alex Bregman ($500,000 for 5.3 WAR) and Corey Kluber ($13,000,000 for 4.8 WAR) to get 10.1 WAR.
7. The scouting-talent-deprived Wolverines spend $1,500,000 on Trea Turner ($1,000,000 for 4.4 WAR) and Eloy Jimenez ($500,000 for 3.5 WAR) to get 7.9 WAR. The good, and the bad, news is the long error bars on the Eloy Jimenez projection.
8. Other top twos:
   1. Pittsburgh: Altuve (4.5) and JD Martinez (4.1) for $17,250,000.
   2. DC:  Matt Chapman (4.5) and Carrasco (4.5) for $10,500,000.
   3. Peshastin:  Gallo (3.6) and Taillon (3.3) for $1,500,000.
   4. Haviland:  Gary Sanchez (3.5) and Zack Cozart (3.1) for $3,750,000.
   5. Kaline: Kris Bryant (5.7) and Aaron Judge (4.8) at $1,500,000.
   6. Brookland: Cody Bellinger (3.9) and Charlie Morton (2.8) at $5,500,000.
9. Bryce Harper was a Dragon until they DFA’d him.  He’s awfully tempting at 4.9 WAR.  He’s awfully expensive at $17,500,000.  But he’ll be a lot more expensive by the time we get to the Free Agent draft.
10. Still, Flint Hill should probably take Harper, if they get the chance, to put the greatest distance between them and the Rosebuds, even if it leaves them with only $6,000,000 to spend. Won’t it be fun to scrounge for pennies to fill out the roster?
11. That 50 WAR is the target, after all.  It will make you a factor in the EFL pennant race!
12. My apologies to the Balk.  They should be listed ahead of the Pears.  It would take me five minutes to fix that. Five minutes I should be spending on my assessment report.
13. The Outs may be in shock.  After a wildly successful debut last year, finishing in fourth place as an expansion team with 88 wins, they project to be in 11th place now with about 63 wins.  Take heart, Brookland fans!  The new expansion franchise has 0.0 WAR on its roster so far!