Sympathy for the …

…well, not quite the Devil, just someone surprising.

(RESULTS BELOW COMBINE MONDAY AND TUESDAY GAMES)

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Portland: W (-1), L 2; 1 – 8. ( 62 PA, .192, .283, .308;  5.7 ip, 6 er, 9.53 ERA).  I think I am learning compassion! The only two hitters OPSing over .667 the last two days were Realmuto (.958) and Rendon (1.000).  Three Allegheny pitchers got through 4.7 ip allowing only 1 run — but then the great Brad Hand quintuple-chulked to ruin the day(s).   Even though most of me rejoiced seeing the Rosebuds wilt over the last two days, part of me is alarmed for them.  These are not one-day fluke numbers. They’re TWO-day numbers. Like a statistical sample, or something. They are ominous!  Wouldn’t it be awful if your team was flying high right through the summer solstice, then suddenly began to play like replacements for, say, the rest of the season? Or something?  Wouldn’t that be awful to have to go through?  I think so — but I’m kinda busy right now, so I’ll have to finish thinking about it in October.

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Flint Hill: W 1, L 1; 8 – 7.   (46 PA, .195, .283, .390; 14.7 ip, 5 er, 3.07 ERA). The Tornados tried to walk with their brothers through the pain of sudden reversal of fortune, with only three hitters OPSing over .500 (Baez 1.071, Bogaerts 1.556, and Grandal 1.000),  but their pitchers kept making inappropriate whooping noises. Not Tyler Mahle or Jace Fry — they were super empathetic, emphasizing the pathetic, combining for 5.7 ip and 5 earned runs.  But the other three Tornado hurlers completed an entire 9 inning shutout, so the supposedly fellow-travelling Tornados actually earned a win.

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Old Detroit: W 2, L 0; 12 – 7. (85 PA, .253, .329, .493; 18.7 ip, 6 er, 2.89 ERA).  I have to admit the Wolverines didn’t really have their hearts in it when they tried to show solidarity toward those poor, suffering, first-place defending champion Rosebuds.  Sure the W offense was a little down, but Rafael Devers went 4 for 4 Tuesday with three doubles, so it was hard to hide the team’s lack of true compassion.  And, of course, the pitchers were hopelessly out of synch.

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Peshastin:  “L”, 9 – 8. (57 PA, .302, .345, .528; 16 ip, 13 er, 7.31 ERA).  I’m not sure how deeply into the league the news of the Rosebuds’ mishap sank. Zach Eflin and Jack Flaherty seem to have sent their heartfelt condolences (combining for 9.7 ip, 13 er) but a bunch of typically ruthless relievers twirled 6.3 scoreless innings to preserve a de facto win.

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Pittsburgh:  W, 7 – 4.  (81 PA, .301, .370, .616; 5 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA)  Accused of shameless disregard for the Rosebuds’ time of need, Allegheny management defended his team’s excellent play.  “Look,” he said, “We were busy.  We hired two replacements to pitch an inning each as similar as possible to how the Rosebud pitchers did, to show we were there for them.  It’s not our fault the replacements pitched 2 earned runs per game better than the Rosebud staff did.”

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Canberra: W 0, L 2; 16 – 23.  (68 PA, .313, .338, .719; 16.7 ip 17 er, 9.18 ERA).  Leave it to the sensitive, kind Kangaroos to show true empathy.  Look how they almost exactly replicated the Rosebud pitching line — but did it at three times the scale!  Blake Snell even executed a real chulk, albeit the plain-vanilla, barely twice as many runs as innings pitched variety (3.3 ip, 7 er). Kangaroo hitters were not participating, however, with 6 of them OPSing above 1.000. So despite taking on two losses, the ‘Roos gained almost an entire game (0.9) on the Rosebuds.  That’s something you don’t see in regular, stodgy old MLB.

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Kaline: W, 5 – 3. (55 PA, .286, .364, .531; 15 ip, 7 er, 4.20 ERA).  Yuli Gurriel and Aaron Judge posted identical batting lines, in all material respects: 2 for 3 with a homer and a walk, 2.417 OPS.  It’s always nice when the players matching their batting lines are also hitting the best on the tem.  Except that’s not what happened here.  Willy Adames went 2 for 2 with a homer, for a 3.500 OPS.

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Haviland: L, 1 – 6. (60 PA, .200, .250, .418;  4.7 ip, 2 er, 3.86 ERA).   I don’t know. I’m getting sort of tired of this “feeling sorry for the Rosebuds” stuff.  Empathy fatigue, that’s what it is. I suspect, after all this time, the Dragonmaster might be weary, too.  Haviland hired replacement mourners for at least 2.3 innings, following (or setting) the example set by (or for) Pittsburgh.

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Cottage: W 0, L 2; 10 – 15. (55 PA, .438, .473, .667 )(!).  No pitching. (Also !, but for the opposite reason).  Francisco Mejia finally did something to threaten Austin Hedges job at San Dievo:  2 for 3 with a homer and a walk.

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Bellingham: W, 9 – 8. (57 PA, .300, .368, .580;  no pitching).  No pitchers pitched for Bellingham the last two days.  We already discussed how one-day flukes turn into something much more when repeated. Bellingham management may need to come inside out of the gorgeous June weather and tend to his pitching staff — get them out of their hospital beds and up on the mound.

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Brookland: W 1, L 1; 10 – 12. (38 PA, .250, .289, .333;  7.3 ip, 2 er, 3.37 ERA).  The Outs were so-so at the plate, but very good on the mound… but only pitched enough innings for one game. That other game, completely staffed by replacements, was not destined to be a win.

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DC: W 0, L 2; 6 – 13. (57 PA, .222, .246, .352; 8.3 ip, 5 er, 5.40 ERA).  The Outs walked twice in two games. They do not like to walk.  You can get an idea about how much a team relies on the walk as part of its offense by looking at the difference between the teams batting average and its on-base percentage.  Here is a chart for you, referring to June stats only:

	BA	OBP	Diff	Diff as % of OBP
Flint Hill	258	347	89	25.6%
Portland	268	349	81	23.2%
Old Detroit	273	351	78	22.2%
Brookland	275	348	73	21.0%
Haviland	271	343	72	21.0%
Bellingham	259	331	72	21.8%
Pittsburgh	268	339	71	20.9%
Cottage	308	377	69	18.3%
Kaline	256	325	69	21.2%
Peshastin	276	344	68	19.8%
Canberra	260	324	64	19.8%
DC	255	313	58	18.5%

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I want to say it looks like a strong correlation between a high percentage of walks and better offense.   And look here, the top three teams in the standings have the biggest difference between BA and OBP!  Ta da!  Walking a lot leads to wins!

But I regret to inform you: the top three teams in runs created per game in June are Cottage, Haviland and Detroit.  Good Old Detroit, so compliant, sticks to its place in line no matter what. Flint Hill drops from 2nd to 4th when you look at actual effectiveness, and Portland drops all the way to 8th!  Our first place team is the 8th best in the league at scoring runs!!

Don’t let your eyes deceive you — even with the wanderers among us, it is still pretty clear that lots of walks are good for the offense.