Today’s update is so full of caveats you might end up with a tummy ache, considering how much “caveat” sounds like “caviar.” Both are rare delicacies, and (frankly) acquired tastes. It’s just that my caveats are both better and cheaper — and fresh off the griddle today. No hogging! There are plenty for everyone.
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EFL Standings for 2018
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 34 | .632 | — | 488.3 | 364.1 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 55 | 38 | .596 | 3.2 | 423.0 | 346.7 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 53 | 37 | .589 | 4.1 | 401.6 | 337.4 |
| Brookland Outs | 52 | 40 | .562 | 6.4 | 489.1 | 432.9 |
| Cottage Cheese | 50 | 42 | .546 | 7.9 | 457.7 | 417.8 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 49 | 44 | .532 | 9.2 | 408.1 | 376.7 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 47 | 43 | .524 | 10 | 480.7 | 462.1 |
| Kaline Drive | 47 | 47 | .496 | 12.5 | 413.6 | 413.2 |
| Peshastin Pears | 42 | 50 | .458 | 16 | 390.5 | 426.6 |
| Haviland Dragons | 42 | 52 | .451 | 16.8 | 397.8 | 444.4 |
| D.C. Balk | 37 | 53 | .414 | 19.9 | 382.6 | 458.7 |
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Portland: W, 4 – 3. (43 PA, .342, .419. .526 — Happy Edgar Martinez Day!; 0.3 ip, 0 er , 0.00 ERA). The Rosebuds grabbed Austin Meadows at the beginning of June. To my regret. But here’s my First Caveat, Part I: not everything that glitters is gold. Meadows had a so-so June, and has been having a not quite so so-so July. Even after going 2 for 2 yesterday to lead the Rosebuds in daily OPS, he’s still OPSing only .556. Here’s my Second Caveat, Part I: these stats do not reflect the contributions of Adalberto Mondesi at 2b. He used to be Raul Mondesi, as recently as Opening Day, but got tired (I guess) of being confused with his dad who also used to be Raul Mondesi until he flaked out at the end of his career and forged the EFL’s path to its rules about restricted lists. So Raul Mondesi the son changed his name to Adalberto. BP took a while to catch up, and now our database is trying to work through its confusions and has lost track of Adalberto in July. Once that is cleared up, look for the Rosebuds to… well, stay about where they are, considering my Second Caveat, Part II: Adalberto is OPSing only .719 (against the team’s July OPS of .837), and is defending 2b at a 6.7 rate compared to a replacement’s 6.0.
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Old Detroit: “L”, 7 – 3. (55 PA, .289, .385, .600; 8 ip, 4 er, 4.50 ERA). Monday the W’s “won” despite getting one-hit by an amorphous network of pitchers spanning the continent. Today the W’s “lost” despite hitting almost as well as the Rosebuds and pitching ok. But here is my First Caveat, Part II: not everything that goes wrong goes wrong. I missed out on Meadows so had to settle for Max Muncy, whose line as a Wolverine is .296, .461, .704. That’s an OPS of 1.165. Of course he couldn’t really keep that up. So naturally his July line has plunged to .313, .450, .688, a collapse of almost 0.030 in his OPS. Last night all he could manage was 2 hits in 3 at bats, only one of which was a homer. Also he walked.
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And here is my First Caveat, Part III: Some things that go wrong quit going wrong at the wrong time. Take the aptly named Kolten Wong, whose batting this year has been so bad I had to trade Alen Hanson for Jose Iglesias so I could move Trea Turner full time to second base. Trea is doing ok so far in July — only OPSing .726, but that was about .100 points better than Wong. Except Wong went 4 for 5 last night with a double and a homer — almost as good as Max Muncy. Wong’s July line is now .444, .467, .741. That’s over 30 plate appearances, a sample size so large it cannot possibly go Wong… I mean, wrong.
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And if you’ll indulge me a little further, I can make it profitable for you with my First Caveat, Part IV: some things that go wrong just stop going wrong for no apparent reason. Like Austin Hedges, who has all season been the certifiably worst hitter on the Wolverines, even including several of the pitchers. But he got off the DL just as July was beginning, and has so far hit .368, .429, .737. That’s only over 21 plate appearances, so we’re still a good 12 or 15 away from absolute solid predictive validity…
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What does all of this good news mean? Probably that the Wolverines have zoomed past the Rosebuds and are running away with the pennant race. It doesn’t exactly show up that way on the standings so far, but that’s probably just database rounding errors waiting to sort themselves out.
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Canberra: W1, L 1; 8 – 5. (42 PA, .256, .310, .462; 0.7 ip, 1 er, 13.50 ERA). Third Caveat: Box scores don’t tell you everything you need to know. Take Alex Bregman for example. He hit two homers yesterday, and walked, but the key blow leaves no trace on his batting line. He came up with the score tied and one out in the bottom of the eleventh, runners on first and second. He swung mightily, and tapped the ball eight feet up the first base line. (The headlines will tell you it was 5 feet, but they’re lying. Fourth Caveat, Part 1: When it come to the mainstream media or me, you’re better off believing me.) Bregman took a step or two toward first, and hesitated, apparently thinking the ball would roll foul. Jonathan Lucroy sprang out of his catcher’s crouch, pounced at the ball, and swung it toward Bregman for the tag. Bregman, still holding his bat, retreated a step, Lucroy’s tag missed, Lucroy bobbled the ball and dropped it, Bregman dropped the bat and took off for first. Lucroy recovered the ball and fired it down the right field line. The runner scored all the way from second.
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I said the key blow left no trace. I was wrong. (Fourth Caveat, Part II: I make mistakes regularly. Just think how bad the mainstream media must be!) It did leave a trace: Bregman got an AB but not a hit. So even though his quick wits and reflexes got the Astros their winning run, Bregman’s batting stats for EFL purposes took a hit. It’s a good thing, too (see First Caveat, Part II.), due to my Fifth (and probably most important) Caveat: We are dangerously close to a situation where the Kangaroos could finish the season in front of the Wolverines. No one knows if the universe can survive such an event.
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Brookland: W 2, L (-1); 10 – 1. (50 PA, .378, .440, .600 – – Happy EM Day! 13.3 ip, 1 er, 0.67 ERA). Manny Machado OPSed 3.050 yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two homers, a walk and a single. The alphabetically adjacent Jose Martinez also went 3 for 4, without the homers but with a double and two walks. Alphabetically adjacent to Martinez was Daniel Murphy, who went 4 for 4 with two doubles. Which is all fine, even for an expansion team, except the Out pitchers outpitched everyone else in the EFL, too, with that puny 0.67 ERA. True, Hellickson’s July ERA, after his 5 shutout innings Tuesday, is still a robust 8.00. Which is probably a good thing, because of my Sixth Caveat: We are still too close to a situation where an expansion team beats the Wolverines. But if that happens, the Kangaroos will probably have passed the W’s, too, and who cares what happens after the dissolution of the cosmos?
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Cottage: L, 5 – 5. (41 PA, .263, .293, .553; 6 ip, 3 er, 4.50 ERA). Greg Bird led the Cheesy offense with a homer in 3 at bats. I dunno, Cottage: when your best hitter is a Yankee, can anything good come of it? Let’s consult my list of caveat’s to see if we can find an answer. Why, yes, here is one, the Seventh Caveat: Nothing good comes from having a Yankee on your team. I do believe the fates will overlook having a token Yankee who isn’t really that crucial to your success. But if you are relying on that Yankee for your success? That never turns out well, especially when you take into account the effects on your immortal soul.
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Calm down. It’s the Seventh Caveat, not the Seventh Seal. Just a friendly warning, is all. As long as the W’s finish ahead of the K’s, I am reasonably sure the universe will not unravel.
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Flint Hill: “L”, 8 – 6. (52 PA, .298, .365, .489; 7.7 ip, 3 er). Mike Trout went 2 for 4 with a walk. That’s a daily OPS of 1.100, not too shabby. Probably worth all the resources you poured out to get him. Where else are you going to get 1.000 + OPSes. OK, sure, Jonathan Schoop amassed an OPS of exactly 1.000, but didn’t you get him in that trade, too. All right, all right, you got 1.500 from Jackie Bradley, Jr., but that’s par for the course for ex-Wolverines. Everyone knows they are cheap sources of winning mojo. What’s that? Your best hitter yesterday was Marcus Semien, who is on his last year as a rookie at only $2,000,000? Who went 3 for 4 with two doubles and a a triple, for an OPS of 2.500, more than twice Trout’s? Well, maybe you should have heeded my Eighth Caveat: Having the best doesn’t make you the best.
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Pittsburgh: L, 3 – 7. (.270, .325, .459; no pitching). Dominic Smith got demoted to the bench yesterday. He promptly went 1 for 1 as a pinch hitter. Despite his 2.000 OPS, Smith probably the best hitter in Pittsburgh’s lineup yesterday. That would be Maikel Franco, who went 2 for 4 with a homer. I think my First Caveat, Part I applies here. Also the Ninth Caveat: You need pitching, even when you don’t think you do.
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Kaline: W, 6 – 5. (35 PA, .313, .371, .531; 8.3 ip, 4 er). Even though Chris Owings has the showy OPS (3.000, because he doubled in his lone plate appearance) and Wil Myers and new Drive AJ Pollock blasted homers (in their only plate appearances), the key to the Drive’s win was this: all nine of their hitters g0t a hit (and Yulieski Gurriel got two). That team-wide effort helped Marcus Stroman (7 ip, 1 er) overcome AJ Minter’s nonuple chulk (0.3 ip, 3 er). Which leads me to my Tenth Caveat: There is no LeBron James in baseball. There’s not even an Eli Manning or whoever is the big quarterback these days. Another reason baseball is such a great sport: it takes a team to win.
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Peshastin: W, 7 – 3. (.323, .400, .581 — Happy EM Day!; 5 ip, 1 er). Mitch Haniger, on his way to the All Star game, went 2 for 4 with a double and a homer to lead the Pear offense. But it wasn’t enough, in Peshastin or Anaheim, to secure a win. Yet the Pears DID get a win out of it, because they hit well as a team, eight of their hitters reaching first safely at least once (except Jacoby Jones). Also, the Pears didn’t have Mike Leake leaking runs liberally. As a result, Peshastin’s strategy to use 2018 as the key to building the Pears into competitors for the EFL title in 2019-22 is running into a problem: they keep rising in the standings! Eleventh Caveat: The problem with counting on things going wrong is they can go wrong about going wrong. (Yes, as you’ve noticed, the Eleventh Caveat sounds more like it’s Part V of the First Caveat. But what did you expect? A caveat about things going wrong pretty much needs to go wrong itself, don’t you think?)
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Haviland: L, 4 – 6. (36 PA, .250, .333, .406; 9 ip, 6 er). It’s been a dreary year for the Dragons, languishing now in 10th place. But Amed Rosario should have brought a smile to Dragon-fan faces yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two triples. (Juan Soto did well, too, 3 for 4 with a walk, but he’s just a debutant. Hmm.) Twelfth Caveat: It is no great honor to be hard to please. So I am sure the Dragonmaster is taking pleasure in the small things, like an excellent day for Amed Rosario.
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DC: W 1, L 1; 12 – 12. (53 PA, .340, .415, .511 — Happy EM day!; 5 ip, 2 er.) Kole Calhoun stood out among the Balk yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a homer and a walk. If only the Balk had more pitching deployed, they might have swept their doubleheader. See the Ninth Caveat. Also the Tenth. And the Twelfth: I hope the Balk are noticing they have moved well above the bottom tier of big league baseball teams. As of today, there are five MLB teams with records inferior to the Balk’s:
Mets .404
Marlins .404
White Sox .330
Royals .286
Orioles .283
Every one of those teams has won a World Series in my lifetime. Most have won several. So take heart with the above caveats, and this Thirteenth Caveat: Given that the odds of dying in a car wreck are above zero, the only thing preventing it from happening to you is something else killing you first. Actually, what I mean is more positive, as expressed in this Thirteenth Caveat (Alternate Version): Even the Mariners will win the World Series eventually. You can do your part by working to live long enough to see it.
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Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 64 | 29 | .688 | — |
| New York Yankees | 59 | 31 | .656 | 3.5 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 55 | 38 | .596 | 8.5 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 49 | 44 | .532 | 14.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 47 | 44 | .516 | 16 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 48 | .467 | 20.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 26 | 66 | .283 | 37.5 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 53 | 37 | .589 | — |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 51 | 39 | .567 | 2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 50 | 40 | .556 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 46 | 45 | .505 | 7.5 |
| D.C. Balk | 37 | 53 | .414 | 15.8 |
| New York Mets | 36 | 53 | .404 | 16.5 |
| Miami Marlins | 38 | 56 | .404 | 17 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Cleveland Indians | 49 | 41 | .544 | — |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 47 | 43 | .524 | 1.8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 40 | 49 | .449 | 8.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 40 | 54 | .426 | 11 |
| Chicago White Sox | 30 | 61 | .330 | 19.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 65 | .286 | 23.5 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 37 | .598 | — |
| Chicago Cubs | 52 | 37 | .584 | 1.5 |
| Brookland Outs | 52 | 40 | .562 | 3.3 |
| Cottage Cheese | 50 | 42 | .546 | 4.7 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 47 | 43 | .522 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 42 | 49 | .462 | 12.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 51 | .446 | 14 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Houston Astros | 62 | 32 | .660 | — |
| Seattle Mariners | 57 | 35 | .620 | 4 |
| Oakland A’s | 51 | 41 | .554 | 10 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 47 | 45 | .511 | 14 |
| Kaline Drive | 47 | 47 | .496 | 15.4 |
| Haviland Dragons | 42 | 52 | .451 | 19.6 |
| Texas Rangers | 40 | 53 | .430 | 21.5 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Portland Rosebuds | 58 | 34 | .632 | — |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 51 | 41 | .554 | 7.1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 49 | 42 | .538 | 8.6 |
| San Francisco Giants | 48 | 46 | .511 | 11.1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 46 | 45 | .505 | 11.6 |
| Peshastin Pears | 42 | 50 | .458 | 16 |
| San Diego Padres | 40 | 54 | .426 | 19.1 |