Wolverines Repeat! My O My!

The Wolverines are the 2022 EFL Champions.  How did they do it?

They did not play the best.  The Seraphim have a better raw record, one that on average would have produced 112 – 50 record. They underperformed their run differential by 11 wins. That’s a lot — but not an unprecedented amount.  The Alleghenys finished 12.5 shy of their projected record, and the Rangers  came out 9 wins short of their projected 77 wins. But those teams were suffering from differences in degree of being out of contention.  The Seraphim lost the trophy, and finished in third place.  

Perhaps it’s just bad luck, the obverse of the kind of good luck that, last year, made a 90-win team out of the 76-win-worthy Mariners.  That was by far the biggest difference between expected and actual winning percentage in the 2021 season. Here are the biggest gaps over the last 10 seasons (ignoring 2020):

• 2021:    + 14      Seattle
• 2019:    +  8       Milwaukee 
• 2018:    + 12      Seattle
• 2017:    + 12       San Diego  
• 2016:    +13       Texas
• 2015:     – 9       Toronto
• 2014:    -11        Oakland 
• 2013:     +7        Philadelphia
• 2012:    +11        Baltimore
• 2011:     – 8        San Diego   

So the Seraphim’s poor fortune is remarkable, but not out of line with recent experience.

But maybe it’s NOT just luck.  Maybe there’s a REASON the Seraphim fell.  Maybe it’s OK if the team with the second-best runs scored/runs allowed ratio wins the championship, if they have done better in some other important categ-o-ry.

The Seraphim were in first place just 10 days ago. On the morning of September 25, this is where the top four teams stood:

Salem and Old Detroit were having their face-to-face series. I entitled the update “The Mighty Can Also Fall” in reference to the spate of injuries MLB had just seen, especially the one that sent Julio Rodriguez to the IL. Maury Wills was the featured photo in recognition of his death.  I never mentioned Salem, but I admit the implication was there: just because Salem had ridden untouched for weeks above the fray, didn’t mean they were immune from calamity. 

If I believed in jinxes, I would have been trying to jinx the Seraphim.  As doomed as such a project sounds, when aimed at heavenly beings.

That day Wolverine pitchers covered 18 innings while allowing only 2 earned runs, shaving more than 5 runs off their weekly  ERA to bring it down to 1.24 for the week. Counting that day, and the ten days since (and not counting Mitch White’s work in AAA, which didn’t affect the standings), Wolverine pitchers have completed 66 innings with 9 earned runs, for a 1.28 team ERA.  In Week 27, they did even better (again excluding Mr. White): 41.3 innings, 3 earned runs: an 0.65 group ERA. (A small dose of replacement innings brings the team’s ERA for Week 27 up to 1.01.)

This explains how the outmanned Wolverines seized the castle and held it long enough for the season to expire. It does not, however, explain why that was fair. 

So let’s get into the metaphysical, shall we? I think there’s a pretty obvious explanation, once you look closely.

Here are the monikers of all our owners, in order of their finish. 

• Ron Mock
• Rob Bohall
• Dave Votaw
• Ryan Mock
• John Johnson
• Tom Johnson
• Jamie Johnson
• Mark Johnson
• Mark Weinert
• Phil Smith
• Andre Duke

Notice anything?

Let me give you a clue:

• Ron Mock
• Rob Bohall
• Dave Votaw
• Ryan Mock
• John Johnson
• Tom Johnson
• Jamie Johnson
• Mark Johnson
• Mark Weinert
• Phil Smith
• Andre Duke

See it?

All of the first 8 team owners have an “o” as the second letter of their last name. This separates them from the poor o-less wretches tossed in a random mound at the bottom of the standings.  

The 8 o-ful among us are sorted into two tiers: those with extra “o”s in their last name — the o-stentatious ones showing off their o’s — and those with a single “o” in the last name. The more modest among us are elevated to the top of our respective tiers.  

Among the o-stentatious and the modest alike, those with an “o” as the second letter of their first name go first in the standings. So Rob and I, as double-oed but not o-stentatious, are one-two (both rankings with “o”s) in the standings, and John and Tom (also double-oed) are the top two in the second tier. 

Why does Ron Mock finish before Rob Bohall? Perhaps it’s efficiency — I lug around fewer non-o letters in my name? But then why didn’t Tom finish in front of the more lavishly-lettered John? And Mark J would need to be in front of the profligately-lettered Jamie. 

Probably it’s because the Old Detroit Wolverines carry 3 o’s, carefully limited to one per word, in their name.  But even there, the Portland Rosebuds, with both of their o’s correctly placed as the second letter, should have finished ahead of the o-stentatious Tornados. Why were the Kangaroos punished for their gl-o-rious double o’s when the Tornados were given a pass for their rather b-o-ring separated o’s?

I don’t know. It’s too complicated. 

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Now we need to give proper notice to Bellingham’s achievement: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with one day left in the season, and then hanging onto it… baaarely.

Bellingham ended up in 11th place, last in the EFL. So in keeping with the Biblical command, they shall be first in the Rookie Draft.  First among the EFL teams, that is — the Nationals and the A’s are one-two overall among all 41 big league teams.  But on the final day of the season, the Cascades carelessly let their W/L record drift back upward a bit. They had so little room to maneuver, they almost let the Reds and Pirates sneak behind them… I mean, in front of them for draft the pick.  Bellingham avoided that fate by only .006 points in winning percentage, and only .9 games in the standings. (The Pears had something to do with Bellingham’s upward drift, as they sneaked downward in the standings. They came close, too — only .004 in winning percentage above the Reds and Pirates.)  

It’s too late now for me to compute our draft order.  I will get that done in the next few days.