Posnanski Picks the Pears

Joe Posnanski wrote again today, like he normally does, and like normal it was worth reading. Especially if you’re from Peshastin.

It’s not like he explicitly picked the Pears to finish first. He wasn’t even writing about the standings, directly.  What he wanted to know was this: how many teams have a top 5 pitcher and a top 5 hitter?  The answer: One team.

The Mariners!

This is based on his lists of the top 5 hitters going into the 2015 season, and the top 5 pitchers:

Top 5 players
1. Mike Trout, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Robinson Cano, Mariners
5. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

Top 5 pitchers
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
3. Chris Sale, White Sox
4. Max Scherzer, Nationals
5. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

I looked at this list and immediately spun off into my own “thought” processes:

*  Hey!  There’s Giancarlo Stanton! Where’s the 2014 Cy Young winner? If Kluber was on the list where he belongs, the Wolverines would be as good as the Mariners!

*  I dunno.  As an M’s fan I’d love to think Cano was a top 5 player, but he doesn’t feel like one to me. Maybe this is because I ignored him all those years, as any decent person does, because he was a Yankee. Maybe it’s because his defense isn’t all that outstanding, despite all the slobbering Joe P. does. He’s good — top 20, for sure, I guess, but I’d rather have Stanton or Machado or Yan Gomes.

*  Really? Yan Gomes? Hmmm….

Cano, age 32, projected Steamer 5.1 WAR, ZIPs 5.3;  2014: 5.2.  7.4 defense at 2b.

Gomes, age 27, Steamer 4.0, ZIPz 3.9, 2014: 4.6.  8.0 defense at c (C and 2b have the same defensive scale).

An edge for Cano, but Cano is going down and Gomes is in his peak. Also Cano would cost $24,000,000 per year.  I could get 48 Yan Gomeses for that amount this year. Gimme Gomes.

* But Joe P wasn’t counting their salaries!

* So?… Hey!  There are two Pears on Joe P’s top 10.

* They’re both pitchers — Sale and Scherzer.  But still… I don’t like it. Two Pears and only one Wolverine.

* How many Alleghenys?  Just one, but it’s that darn Mike Trout again. He’s kind of worth two all by himself. Hmmm…

Altuve: 25 years old. Steamer: 3.2.  Zips: 3.9. 2014: 5.1.  Defense: 6.2.  Cost in 2015: 1,000,000.  Definitely not a top 5. Right?

 

So — Joe P thinks the Pears have the most elite elite players in the EFL.  Here’s my take on the odds that each EFL team has one player and one hitter who will end up in the top 5 in 2015:

 

Canberra:  Bryce Harper and ….  Aroldis Chapman?

We are still awaiting the Bryce Harper breakout. I expect there to be one, and this year is as likely as any.  If Jose Abreu falls to the ‘Roos he might cut in front of Harper.   But among the current Canberran pitchers? It’s going to have to be somebody suddenly bursting onto the scene.  Probably the best way the ‘Roos can meet the Pos Test would be to draft Tanaka instead of Abreu and hope for a reasonable amount of luck with Tanaka and Harper.

 

Kaline: Yoenis Cespedes and James Paxton.

I’d love to have either of these guys, but I see Cespedes as more of a top-20 or 25 guy. He could elevate into the top 5; he’s more likely now than, say, Kluber or Brantley were a year ago. Paxton would be more of a bolt from the blue. A true Kluber.

 

Portland: Starling Marte and Yordano Ventura.

Marte is another player I’d love to have, but probably a little less likely than Cespedes to blossom. But, hey, Michael Brantley almost made Pos’ top 5, so equally strange things have happened.  Ventura is about where Paxton is.  We’re still in bolts out of the blue territory.

 

Flint Hill:  Dustin Pedroia and Jesse Hahn.

There are a lot of fine young players among the Tornados, none of them high odds for top-5ness, although Pos gave Pedroia a shout-out.  I probably picked Pedroia and Hahn out of Wolverine wistfulness as much as anything.

 

Cottage:  Jason Heyward / Yasiel Puig and Sonny Gray/ Alex Cobb

None of these are more likely than not to make the top-5s, although Puig gets an honorable mention from Pos. But they each have a realistic chance. There’s a big statistical advantage in having two dice throws to work with in each category.

 

Hill City: Paul Goldschmidt and Garrett Richards.

Richards also gets an honorable mention from Joe Pos, so we are on the borders of “legitimate contender” territory. Pos overlooks Goldschmidt entirely. Inexcusable! (Richards 2014 WAR: 4.3; Goldschmidt: 4.4 — with a 5.1 projection! Cano territory!)

 

Peshastin:  Jonathan Lucroy/Anthony Rendon and Chris Sale/Max Scherzer

To go with the two Pears likely to make the top-5 pitchers list, all Peshastin needs is one legit hitter candidate.  There are some names on the list who were once expected to be in that category, perhaps: Brett Lawrie, Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison. And there’s Lucroy. I remember how delighted Phil was to get him in the rookie draft, and how puzzled I was at the time. But Phil was right: he just keeps getting better.  Lucroy, I mean. Maybe Phil keeps getting better, too, even into his 60’s, but that’s not the point. He (Lucroy) was worth 6.3 WAR last year!  That was eighth highest among all hitters and third highest among NL hitters last year after Anthony McCutchen and…

… Anthony Rendon. Another Pear. Who earned 6.6 WAR. And ranked fourth among MLB hitters. And never got a mention from Joe Pos.  So — everything I said about Cottage’s statistical advantage from having depth at the “elite” position, I can say even louder for the Pears since they have 3 players who already project to be in the top 5, and another just off the plate.

 

Old Detroit: Giancarlo Stanton/Manny Machado/Anthony Rizzo and Corey Kluber

Unless Francisco Liriano suddenly recovers all his lost potential (at the age of 31?) the W’s only have one pitcher in the top-5 race. But Stanton (#9 last year, 6.1 WAR) Rizzo (#14 last year, 5.6 WAR) and Machado (he’s out of new knees to injure, right?) are reasonable candidates.   Still — with 3 dice on one side and one on the other, we don’t have the Pears’ probability advantage with 2 and 2, and 3 of the four already in the WAR top-5.

 

Pittsburgh:  Trout. And Hamels/Strasburg

Ok, if anyone is a lock, it’s Mike Trout.  The Pears, even with all their riches in elite players, probably are only a little better than 50/50 for hitters, and somewhat better than that for getting a pitcher into the top 5.  The A’s, on the other hand, are 85% – 90% sure of having a top-5 hitter.  So all they have to do is get lucky on the pitching side.

And they do have strong candidates.  Hamels was #18 with 3.8 WAR last year, and Strasburgh was #13 with 4.3  Strasburgh gets the 8th best predicted WAR this year (3.8) and Hamels is in the ballpark at 2.7. Hisashi Iwakuma sneaks in there, too, at 3.0.

Pretty impressive. But nothing like the Pears. So  Joe is right. The Pears project best for having at least 1 pitcher and 1 batter in baseball’s top 5.