¡ Vive La Differential !

People out there in the merely real world are suddenly paying a lot of attention to “run differential” — the difference between your team’s runs scored and runs allowed.

One reason it’s such a hot item is the Cubs, whose run differential as of Monday afternoon stood at +102.  This is apparently the biggest through 30 games since the 1902 Pittsburgh — hmm, were they the Pirates then, or still the Alleghenys?  Anyway, since 1902.

Sports on Earth ran an article about this Monday. They call the run differential the “Diff”, borrowing from the Cleveland Cavaliers who feature their team’s season points differential on a scoreboard under the heading “The Diff.”  Andrew Castrovince complains about the Diff :

“Unfortunately for the Cubs, you don’t get to roll up your excess Diff in paper wrappers and take it to the bank to exchange for some victories. “

Castrovince doesn’t seem to notice the Cubs have no excess diff. They are 24 – 6.  A team scoring 184 and allowing 82 is expected to go 24-6.  They’re using every last bit of diff they’ve got. To get better they’d have to get luckier or get a bigger diff — and they’d better hurry, because as they add games they’ll need a bigger diff to get the same results.

Of course, here in the EFL we never waste any Diff, good or bad — and haven’t for over a dozen years.

Actually, the EFL has progressed far beyond  Castrovince and all the others, who are getting it wrong.  It’s not the Diff that matters. It’s the Rat: the ratio between runs scored and runs allowed.  If the Cubs allowed half the runs (41) and scored half the runs (92), their Diff would be half as big (51) but their predicted record would be the same. Or if they scored twice the runs (368) and allowed twice the runs (164) their Diff would be twice as big, but their record would be the same.

In the EFL their record would be the same.  In the merely real world, things are messier:

AS OF 30 GAMES

Team                     Record    RS-RA     Diff    PredRec  Games Up

Tigers, 1984:             26 – 4       182 – 91        91        23 – 7            7.5 up on Toronto

Cubs, 2016:               24 – 6       184 – 82      102        24 – 6          7.5 up on Pittsburgh

Mariners, 2001:       23 – 7       163 – 108      55        20 – 10        9.0 up on Anaheim

AS OF 162 GAMES

Mariners, 2001:       116 – 46     927 – 627    300     109 –  53       14 games up on Oakland (41 on Anaheim)

Tigers, 1984:            104 – 58     829 – 643    286       99 – 63       15 games up on Toronto

Cubs, 2016:               ???

The Tigers won the World Series in 1984, but didn’t get back to the Series for over 20 years and have not won again. The Mariners didn’t make it to the World Series, made the playoffs only once more (2002) and now have the longest post-season drought in baseball.

What’s the Diff between the Tigers, the Mariners and the Cubs?

Well, there is this: I am not a Cubs fan.  So, yeah, they’ll be fine. This year and probably for many years to come.