Yesterday MLB published an article on “10 ‘small sample’ starts to believe in.” It’s not worth reading.
For one thing, ALL small sample sizes are untrustworthy. ESPECIALLY the one associated with Gregory Polanco. Sure, he was OPSing 1.147 as of Saturday morning. But do you REALLY think the Wolverines would have left him vulnerable in the expansion draft if he was about to do THAT all season? Whom do you trust? Your venerable Commissioner, or your lying small-sample eyes?
But I am an open-minded man. Let’s do some small sample experiments, to see if there is any beauty to be found. Maybe some truth, too.
- As of Saturday morning, Lucas Duda was leading the Kansas City Royals in home runs. With one. It was not a tie. As of Saturday evening, the situation had changed. I’ll explain later in this post.
- As of Saturday evening, Ryan Schimpf had made his way onto the Angels’ major league roster. As you may recall, the Wolverines chose him over Brian Anderson-Johnson , because who wants the Red Sox’ fifth starter when one can get Ryan Schimpf? He started the spring in MLB with the Rays, going 0 for 14 with a walk and 8 strikeouts. Intrigued, the Braves traded for him mid-way through spring training. Ryan justified the Braves’ confidence: he improved to 0 for 16 with 4 walks and 11 strikeouts. When Atlanta (and Old Detroit) both inexplicably put him on waivers, the Angels just had to get in on the action. They snagged him and sent him to Salt Lake City, where he went 0 for 9 with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. That’s 0 for 39 with 24 strikeouts and 6 walks. That’s a 66.7% true outcomes rate! Well, then, of COURSE the Angels needed to get that kind of talent up to Anaheim as soon as possible. So they promoted him on Friday.
- Why would the Angels be in such a hurry to bring up Schimpf? Well, fellow former Wolverine Chris Young (the shorter and younger) needs help. Young has started the season 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts and no walks. Who better to bring that strikeout rate down under 60% than the world’s expert on the topic: Ryan Schimpf?
- Maybe you think it’s the other way around — that Young is intended to help Schimpf? You could be right. Young hasn’t gone hitless all spring. He was 1 for 14 with the Angels in spring training. So the Angels may be hoping to get Schimpf up to Young’s .056 combined spring training and regular season batting average, while Young gets help cutting his strikeout rate to match Schimpf’s 53.3% performance. And then they’ll go from there. It has all the makings of a wonderful partnership.
- In the bottom of the ninth Saturday, the Angels came to the plate four runs down. Pujols led off with a single, and the A’s announcer was surprised the Angels didn’t run for him. But Mike Scioscia only has three hitters on the bench: Young, Schimpf, and catcher Maldonado. Maldonado can’t be the pinch runner — what if Rivera got hurt? And of COURSE Scioscia wouldn’t waste Young or Schimpf as pinch runners. I almost always listen to the A’s announcers for games involving Oakland, because they are generally excellent, but in this case I just cannot make an excuse for this silly notion that the Angels might run Young or Schimpf for the lumbering Pujols.
- I am writing this while listening to the ninth inning. With two on and two out, and four runs down, the Angels pinch hit Schimpf for Jefry Marte. (See? I told you Scioscia had bigger plans for Schimpf than mere pinch running.) I am sure Marte doesn’t mind. He would understand. He is only batting .375, .444, .563 on the season — and that is in a totally untrustworthy sample of just 18 plate appearances. Furthermore, this is the perfect opportunity to see if the Angels’ experiment in mutual mentorship has started working yet.
- The count has gone to 1 – 2, and here’s the pitch…
- …
- Nah, I don’t want to spoil it. Let’s just say Schimpf is no Taylor Motter.
EFL Standings for 2018
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Kaline Drive | 6 | 3 | .632 | — | 42.7 | 32.5 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 5 | 2 | .654 | 0.1 | 44.1 | 32.1 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 5 | 2 | .654 | 0.1 | 35.7 | 25.9 |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 5 | 3 | .569 | 0.6 | 28.5 | 24.8 |
| Brookland Outs | 4 | 3 | .556 | 0.8 | 33.1 | 29.6 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 4 | 4 | .529 | 1 | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| D.C. Balk | 4 | 3 | .522 | 1 | 29.8 | 28.6 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 3 | 5 | .391 | 2.1 | 30.5 | 38.2 |
| Cottage Cheese | 3 | 4 | .363 | 2.1 | 25.7 | 34.0 |
| Haviland Dragons | 3 | 6 | .361 | 2.4 | 37.6 | 50.0 |
| Peshastin Pears | 2 | 6 | .197 | 3.6 | 22.3 | 45.2 |
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Kaline: W, 7 – 3. (.225, .380, .475; 13.0 ip 5 er). Hurray for the Drive! It’s their turn to try out the catbird seat. Michael Fulmer (5.3 ip, 0 er) and a brace of relievers fixed what Marcus Stroman (4.7 ip, 5 er) had broken. And Kris Bryant sort of hit for the cycle: 3 for 3 with a homer, a triple and two walks as good as a double) to lead the Drive offense. (And remember Steve Pearce, with the underwhelming hitting since he left the Wolverines? He hit a homer and walked to push up his OPS over 200 points to .813 on the season.)
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Canberra: DNP, 2 – 4. (.313, .378, .375; 8.3 ip, 9 er). Dillon Peters sort of exploded on the mound Saturday, triple chulking at 2.7 ip, 9 earned runs. Fortunately for Canberra, Peters is only 75% active, and picked an off-day to blunt the effects of his meltdown. So the Kangaroos are still right in the thick of things…
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Pittsburgh: W, 8 – 3. (.302, .415, .558 — Happy Edgar Martinez Day! 1 ip 0 er). An Edgar Martinez Day happens when an entire team bats over .300, gets on base over .400, and slugs over .500, as the great Edgar did over his entire career. Thus the Alleghenys tie the Kangaroos for second place a mere breath out of first place. Yet again. Yikes — the team with half the EFL championships ever awarded is at it again.
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Old Detroit: L, (-1) – 5. (.156 .255, .244; 12.3 ip, 6 er). The Wolverines’ days in the April sun are over. Fourth place comports with expectations. I guess the sample size suddenly got big enough on Saturday. Now we know. Sigh.
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I probably should explain why Ryan Schimpf is no Taylor Motter. It’s simple: when Scott Servais had the bases loaded with nobody out and Dan Vogelbach coming to the plate (7 HR in spring training), he pinch hit Taylor Motter, probably the worst hitter on the major league roster. Motter struck out looking. He didn’t even try to hit the ball.
But Schimpf is a EWIE (ex-Wolverine Infielder … um… I can’t remember what the other E stands for. Extraordinaire?). I established last year or maybe the year before that EWIE’s are unfailingly outstanding as soon as they earn that status, no matter how lackluster they were in their Wolverine tenure. Jose Altuve is the model here: briefly a Wolverine, with a disappointing record, became an instant superstar the moment he put on an Allegheny uniform. So when it counted, Schimpf the EWIE did not let his opportunity pass. He swung at that ball with all his might.
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And therein lies the difference between Motter, a mere honest journeyman, and Schimpf, the EWIE.
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Brookland: L, 4 – 5. (.207, .200, .345; 3.7 ip, 0 er). A weak day at the plate was almost offset by some fine relief pitching. Reyes Moronta and David Robertson combined for 8 strikeouts in 3.7 shutout innings. And I don’t think either of them faced Motter OR Schimpf.
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Portland: L, 2 – 7. (.185, .254, .241; 5.3 ip, 5 er) It would not surprise me to see this season come down to a battle between the Twin P’s: the perennial power, Pittsburgh, and the projected pre-eminent Portland. They are just toying with us for now, which is in a way kind. The Mariners’ dismantling of Jose Berrios, 4.7 ip, 5 er, helped bolster the hopes of the underdogs. So did 8 Rosebuds going 0 for the day, matching the Wolverines.
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DC: W, 3 – 0. (.273, .368, .636; 3 ip, 1 er). It seems like I write every day about Matt Chapman (1 for 3 Saturday with a triple and two walks), so today let’s do something else. How about Lucas Duda who started Saturday leading the Royals in homers with 1. Kansas City got three-hit by Trevor Bauer and the Indians. One of those hits was a homer — the second for the Royals this season. Lucas Duda hit that homer. That was KC’s 6th game of the season, putting them at precisely at the 1/27th mark out of 162 games. So, if current trends continue, Lucas Duda will end the season with 54 homers, and the Royals will, too. Wouldn’t that be a thing of beauty?
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Flint Hill: L, 2 – 6. (.174, .255, .283; 7.3 ip, 5 er). The Tornadoes, in keeping with the impatience associated with their cyclonic brand, are the first EFL team to send a player to the minors this year. Blake Parker was banished for his 1.3 ip, 2 er. This was really Blake’s first offense. Before Saturday his season line was 3.3 ip, 2 er. Also, poor Parker’s FIP for Saturday was just 3.77, bringing it up for the month to 2.80. But whatever! Each EFL manager is free to establish his own policies. If the Top Tornado thinks Blake Parker needs some tough love, who are the rest of us to raise our eyebrows and give each other meaningful glances?
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As a reminder, when this happens, I move the player’s stats as of the day of their demotion to a different section of my spreadsheet, and transfer him in Baseball Prospectus to the team’s Watched List. This seals in amber his stats to that point. Every daily update reports those frozen stats, so they are not lost but neither do they change. With our current database set-up, we cannot keep track if the player comes back up in the same month, so Parker is in the minors for the rest of the month. Dave is working on a new approach which may allow us to bring a player back up. But all that will be too late for poor Blake Parker.
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Cottage: “W”, 3 – 5. (.156, .270, .375; 1 ip, 0 er). Xander Bogaerts, the Cheese’s backup shortstop, drove in 6 runs with a homer, a double, and a walk in 4 plate appearances. Their main shortstop had a good day, t00: 2 for 5 with 2 walks. And Eric Thames hit a homer. The other seven hitters combined to go 0 for 20 with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. That’s positively Schimpfian, although lacking a little in the strikeout category. Maybe we should celebrate Ryan Schimpf Days, too, for those who have trouble achieving the Edgarian level.
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Haviland: W, 6 – (-4). (.217, .419, .391; 13 ip, 2 er). That’s a very nice day, more like the kind Dragons’ management (and everyone else) expected from this team. Yu Darvish and Vincent Velasquez produced matching 6 ip, 1 er outings, while Tyler Glasnow only pitched one scoreless inning. I wonder what’s going on with Glasnow now.
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Peshastin: “W”, 6 – 8. (.227, .414, .318; 1 ip, 1 er). The Pears accepted 7 free passes (5 walks, 2 hbp) and made them the backbone of their offense, which otherwise comprised 5 hits, including 2 doubles. Those free passes and the actual runs scored match up eerily:
Baez: 1 walk, 1 run
Gallo: 2 walks, 2 runs
Haniger: 1 walk, 1 run
Iglesias: 1 walk, 1 run
To be fair, Ozzie Albies got hit by a pitch, and didn’t score. Iglesias also got HBP. And Trey Mancini scored without a free pass (he had two hits, including a double). But clearly walks are powerful weapons. And Ryan Schimpf has been walking 13.3% of the time!
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Boston Red Sox | 7 | 1 | .875 | — |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 5 | 3 | .569 | 2.5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 4 | .556 | 2.5 |
| New York Yankees | 5 | 4 | .556 | 2.5 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 3 | 5 | .391 | 3.9 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 6 | .333 | 4.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 7 | .125 | 6 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| New York Mets | 6 | 1 | .857 | — |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 5 | 2 | .654 | 1.4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 5 | 3 | .625 | 1.5 |
| D.C. Balk | 4 | 3 | .522 | 2.3 |
| Washington Nationals | 4 | 4 | .500 | 2.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 4 | .429 | 3 |
| Miami Marlins | 2 | 6 | .250 | 4.5 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 5 | 2 | .654 | — |
| Minnesota Twins | 4 | 3 | .571 | 0.6 |
| Detroit Tigers | 3 | 4 | .429 | 1.6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3 | 4 | .429 | 1.6 |
| Cleveland Indians | 3 | 5 | .375 | 2.1 |
| Kansas City Royals | 2 | 4 | .333 | 2.1 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 2 | .714 | — |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 4 | .556 | 1 |
| Brookland Outs | 4 | 3 | .556 | 1.1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 4 | .500 | 1.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 4 | 4 | .500 | 1.5 |
| Cottage Cheese | 3 | 4 | .363 | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 | 5 | .286 | 3 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Houston Astros | 7 | 2 | .778 | — |
| Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 3 | .667 | 1 |
| Kaline Drive | 6 | 3 | .632 | 1.3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 4 | 3 | .571 | 2 |
| Texas Rangers | 4 | 6 | .400 | 3.5 |
| Oakland A’s | 4 | 6 | .400 | 3.5 |
| Haviland Dragons | 3 | 6 | .361 | 3.7 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 6 | 2 | .750 | — |
| San Francisco Giants | 4 | 3 | .571 | 1.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 5 | 4 | .556 | 1.5 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 4 | 4 | .529 | 1.8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 6 | .250 | 4 |
| Peshastin Pears | 2 | 6 | .197 | 4.4 |
| San Diego Padres | 2 | 7 | .222 | 4.5 |
Flint Hill: