I did a little study. Read it. There is an exam.

I hear ugly rumors that our faculty contracts may kick in soon. I tend to discount these dismal predictions since we aren’t on contract until August 15 which has been a long way off for so long I figure it’s probably almost never going to arrive.   But just in case, I’d better warm up for writing syllabi. So I did a little scholarship, and I wrote an exam.

I did the study to see whether the Wolverines’ tenure in first place is as tenuous as it feels.  I found where Fangraphs has a leaderboard ranking all active MLB players in 2018 fWAR.  I played around with the data, getting all our players onto their proper rosters.  I added up the 2018 fWAR (as of Saturday morning) for all our rosters.  Then I looked at the number of games we played, calculated how much of the season is left for each team, and generated data supposedly showing how many potential  fWAR we have to draw on for the rest of the season.

I calculated this two ways:  for the top 15 players (in terms of WAR) to get a rough feel for how many wins our teams generate from our “everyday” or starting players; and for the entire roster, making the wildly inaccurate assumption we can use every last inning pitched and plate appearance all 30 of our players produce.

According to this study, the Wolverines need to be at least 5 games ahead of the Rosebuds to have a 50/50 chance of beating them this season.  The W’s already have better than a 50/50 chance of beating the Outs.

To see if any of this survived the weekend, read on.

Oh, wait, first here’s the chart of the results of my study. The key numbers are in the last column, projecting how much WAR will be generated in the rest of the season by the entire roster, and the top 15 players on the roster.  Somewhere between those numbers is where a team is most likely to come out, in comparison with other EFL teams. So Portland’s entire roster is most likely to generate about 23.2 WAR between Saturday and the end of the season, while Old Detroit’s is most likely to provide 18.6 WAR.  This means the Rosebuds are most likely to gain 4.6 games on the W’s if both of us are equally adept at milking wins out of our entire roster.  Or if we can only tap the top 15 players, leaving WAR on the table, the ‘Buds should gain 3.5 games.  Either way, right now the Wolverines are well within range of the Rosebuds.

Name

Team

Games

PA

IP

Total WAR

Season WAR Proj

WAR Remaining

PORTLAND	30	117	4962	1223.6	60.4	83.6	23.2
Top 15					48.3	66.9	18.6

OLD DETROIT	30	117	5557	1088.3	48.4	67.0	18.6
Top 15					39.2	54.3	15.1

BROOKLAND	30	115	5904	1269.3	49.5	69.7	20.2
Top 15					39.1	55.1	16.0

CANBERRA	30	113	4462	1055.2	35.8	51.3	15.5
Top 15					30.6	43.9	13.3

PITTSBURGH	30	117	4488	1015.1	34.4	47.6	13.2
Top 15					27.8	38.5	10.7

COTTAGE	30	115	3659	854.7	27.8	39.2	11.4
Top 15					24.4	34.4	10.0

FLINT HILL	29	117	4423	943	26.1	36.1	10.0
Top 15					26.4	36.6	10.2

KALINE	22	117	3653	784.2	28.4	39.3	10.9
Top 15					25.1	34.8	9.7

PESHASTIN	29	117	3245	777	26.6	36.8	10.2
Top 15					26	36.0	10.0

HAVILAND	21	117	2541	661.2	19	26.3	7.3
Top 15					17.3	24.0	6.7

DC	30	113	5013	1009.4	29.4	42.1	12.7
Top 15					30.7	44.0	13.3

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Stats cited below are for Sunday games. Please write your answers to the essay questions on the back of the exam. No cheating.

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Old Detroit: W, 2 – (-1). (60 PA, .241, .317, .426; 14 ip, 2 er, 1.29 ERA).   Francisco Arcia is leading the Wolverines in OPS for the season at 1.055. Francisco Arcia is allocated at 0%. Francisco Arcia’s August OPS is only .619, second lowest on the team. Francisco Arcia went 2 for 4 Sunday, with a homer, for a daily OPS of 1.750, second highest on the team.  So here’s the first Essay Question: should the W’s spend a roster move activating Francisco Arcia at, say, OH?  Discuss.

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Portland: W, 8 – 3. (41 PA, .342, .390, .711; 7.7 ip, 4 er, 4.70 ERA) Eduardo Escobar hit a pinch hit homer for the ‘Buds. It was the top of the ninth, there was only one out, there was only one man on base (Nick Ahmed, who had doubled and didn’t need a home run to score), and it made the score 7 – 2 in favor of the already-leading Diamondbacks.  But Escobar’s OPS for the day was a cool 5.000, the highest possible OPS. Still, five other Rosebuds also OPSed 1.000 or better.  Imagine, if you can, another homer hit in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded, two outs, two strikes on the batter, and the home team down 3 – 0?  The homers are identical; the contexts, through no fault or merit of the batters, are different.  Essay Question #2: Is it ethical, or discriminatory, to celebrate Escobar’s homer less enthusiastically than the mythical walk-off grand slam?

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Brookland: L, 2 – 8. (50 PA, .261, .280, .370; 12 ip, 8 er, 6.00 ERA).  The Outs encountered some turbulence Sunday amid their march to the EFL championship.  On one hand Daniel Descalso decalcified the baseball to the tune of a homer and a double in 4 plate appearances, and Zack Godley pitched a godly 6.7 innings with 1 earned run. On the other hand, the Outs’ murderers row of Machado, Gattis and Gregory Polanco went a combined 0 for 11, and Jake Arrieta surrendered 5 runs in 5 innings and Reyes Moronto sextuple chulked (o.3 ip, 2 er).  Here’s the Third Essay Question:  If the Outs right their ship and take the EFL championship, or even just humiliate our beloved Commissioner, should we give them the silent treatment for a month, or for the entire offseason, or until they relinquish the trophy to a more veteran team? Defend any hint of grace or mercy in your reply.

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Canberra: W 0, L (-1); (-2) – (-8). (37 PA, .257, .297, .514; 6 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA).  The Kangaroos are (or were Saturday morning) on the very fringe of the pennant race.  The bell curve of outcome probabilities for all these projections are fuzzy. The Kangaroos’ bell curve probably still overlaps with the leaders’ bell curves  out on the tails somewhere.  If the entire Kangaroo roster performs seamlessly, and the teams ahead of Canberra all get very little help from their benches, as of Saturday the Kangaroos could still sneak into first place. It’s probably a 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 chance. But, yes, I am saying there is still a chance.

The Captain Kangaroo apparently agrees with me, judging by some correspondence The EFL Answer Man received Sunday evening:

Dear EFL Answer Man:

How many wins do I get for David Bote hitting a walk-off grand slam with two outs and two strikes, down by three runs. I vote six.

— Hopeful in Canberra

I suspect those Canberrans have baseball a little mixed up with cricket, where a foul pop fly that reaches the stands counts as six runs. So an ask for six runs may seem to be a trivial thing, especially if you think your team will probably need 500 or 600 runs to win.

Anyway, here is how the Answer Man answered the man this morning:

Dear Hopeful:

We’ll see [but I should warn you] Bote was the only guy [the Commissioner] was targeting last time. [The Commissioner] accidentally got F Arcia right at the end when [the Commissioner] tried to make Brookland pay a little extra in his desperation to get a catcher. [Brookland] dopped Arcia on [the Commissioner] forcing [the Commissioner] to drop Fister… What a dupe [the Commissioner] was. 

Of course, Arcia might be leading [the Commissioner’s] team in OPS after his homer yesterday. 

Of course, he’s activated at 0%. 

— Mr. EFL Answer Man

So here’s the Fourth Essay Question: Should the Kangaroos be awarded six wins for Bote’s homer? Six runs? Six donuts at the next manager’s meeting (you must be present to win)? Explain your answer.

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Pittsburgh:  W, 5 – 1. (36 PA, .233, .333, .400; 10.3 ip, 2 er, 1.74 ERA) Dansby Swanson had the best day I’ve ever noticed him having: one for three with a homer and a walk for a nice daily OPS of 1.833.  Jose Altuve is on the DL, but the Alleghenys have still hung in on the fringes of the fringes of the pennant race, now just 0.3 games behind the Kangaroos.  Fifth Essay Question: What would you recommend for an EFL owner who trembles when he sees the Alleghenys 10+ games behind, documented to have almost no chance of catching up?  Should that nervous owner seek counseling? Retreat into the mountains — I mean, some different mountains? Trade his future for Mike Trout and/or Bryce Harper?  I’ll keep your responses confidential.

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Cottage: L, 4 – 10. (22 PA, .286, .318, .429; 1.3 ip, 3 er, 20.25 ERA). Yandy Diaz hit three singles in 5 trips to the plate. Max Kepler hit a homer in three plate appearances. On the other hand, Jose Alvarado and Adam Cimber both chulked, albeit in a small way (1.3 innings between them, with 3 earned runs).  Sixth Essay Question: Why do so many of the teams, from the Cheese on down, have so few plate appearances on a Sunday?  Are they lazy? Sick? In need of kindly advice from their betters?  Off plotting a coup against their overlords? Give evidence for your answer, preferably the kind that would be admissible in court.

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 Flint Hill: L, 6 – 9. (21 PA, .294, .429, .412; 15.7 ip, 10 er, 5.74 ERA).  Another team with anemic turnout on a Sunday. Not that all the players were anemic: Marcus Semien went 3 for 4 with a double and a HBP, and Niko Goodrum went 1 for 2 with two walks.  And seven pitchers combined for 15.7 innings, more than 2 per pitcher.  On the other hand, they surrendered 10 earned runs… Seventh Essay Question:  Has the Commissioner’s self-restraint in not mentioning DL-ed Mike Trout helped the Tornados’ performance? Or their mood? Or would it be ok to just start in again beating that dead horse?

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Kaline: L, 1 – 4. (36 PA, .171, .194, .343; 11 ip, 5 er, 4.09 ERA). The Drive’s very low line Drive of a batting line has two peaks: EWIE (Ex-Wolverine Infielder Extraordinaire) Steve Pearce’s .333, .500, 1.333 (a homer and a walk in 4 PAs) and Mariner Mike Zunino’s homer in four AB. Had Chase Anderson not stumbled to 4 er in 4 ip, the Drive’s pitching would have featured 7 ip, 1 er. Eighth Essay Question:  Why are there so many great EWIE’s in the world?  Is it extraordinary Wolverine generosity? Or the cup of superior Wolverine player development running over? Or some other explanation — although, really, what else could it be?

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Haviland: W, 4 – 7. (29 PA, .174, .345, .174; 10 ip, 6 er, 5.40 ERA).  The Dragon’s very low line drive of a batting line has only one peak: Yasiel Puig’s two-for-three with a walk. Tyler Glasnow pitched great (5 ip, 1 er) but Sean Newcomb didn’t (4 ip, 5 er).  Ninth Essay Question:  Did you ever dream the Dragons would be ninth in the standings, after winning two of the last three EFL championships?  I sure didn’t. Explain.

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Peshastin: W, 4 – 4. (33 PA, .323, .333, .516; 1 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). Nine Pears batted Sunday.  Five OPSed 1.000 or better.  Tenth Essay Question: I thought the Pears were trying to get a really good draft position. Didn’t you?

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DC: W 0, L (-1); (-10) – (-8).  (43 PA, .139, .256, .167; 22 ip, 5 er, 2.05 ERA). Twelve Balkan batters batted. Six of them OPSed 0.000.  A seventh batted 0.000. Together those seven covered 18 AB.  Carlos Carrasco and Alex Cobb spun nearly identical 7 ip, 1 er games. Eleventh Essay Question:   Should it have been “Carrasco and Cobb spinned nearly identical games”? Justify your answer.  Or maybe the question. Your choice. (Be careful.)

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