How are they doing that?!?

EFL
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB	RS	RA
Old Detroit Wolverines	93	51	.648	—	736.1	526.4
Portland Rosebuds	92	50	.649	0.2	777.5	554.7
Brookland Outs	81	61	.567	11.7	749.7	661.7
Canberra Kangaroos	81	62	.564	12.2	665.5	588.6
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	76	67	.532	16.8	752.0	711.1
Flint Hill Tornadoes	75	69	.522	18.1	678.1	640.2
Haviland Dragons	72	71	.501	21.2	678.0	669.7
Cottage Cheese	68	74	.477	24.6	674.6	709.3
Kaline Drive	66	77	.464	26.5	615.9	665.0
Peshastin Pears	65	77	.459	27.2	607.2	661.9
D.C. Balk	62	81	.434	30.8	615.4	703.6

Except for Saturday, when the Wolverines were temporarily phamished, and then dephamed, these two teams have produced almost the same exact outcome every day since we started doing September updates on Thursday:  The Wolverines get a great batting line and a middling pitching line.  I get all excited.  But then the Rosebuds produce slightly better numbers,  so much that I have expected every morning to see Portland in first place.  But every morning the Wolverines are still in front.  The margin is 0.2 games or less, but day after day the W’s just barely keep their lead despite better Rosebud raw numbers.

How are the Wolverines doing this?

Here are our raw numbers for hitting and pitching in September:

IP:                                        101.3              101

ER:                                          36                 49

ERA:                                    3.20              4.37

                        ER per game:                       5.14             6.12

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There isn’t much daylight between the two teams’ raw offensive numbers. We have remarkably similar offenses, except the Rosebuds have a lot more plate appearances which should make them better able to respond if holes open up due to injuries or September shenanigans with prospects replacing our guys, etc. Apparently that hasn’t been happening much, yet.

The Rosebuds’ raw pitching numbers are significantly better than Old Detroit’s.  The same volume of pitching has allowed only 73.5% as many earned runs in Portland.  If we were using our raw numbers, the Rosebuds would be pulling away in the standings

Why isn’t this happening? Is it better allocations by the W’s?  Consider these September  EFL stats for each team, which show our results after our allocations:

Batting Average:               .308              .297

OBP:                                    .396               .394

SLG:                                     .562              .582

RC/G:                                   8.19              8.58

Replacement PA:                0                    0

Unused PA:                         108                26

IP                                           67.9             59.5

Replacement IP:                   3.4               0.8

ERA                                      2.94              3.53

Defense:                                37.1              36.2

Runs Scored:                       57.3              68.6

Runs Allowed:                     21.9             30.4

                       Runs Allowed per game:   3.13              3.80

Winning Percentage:        .873              .836

Record:                                6 – 1               7 – 1

(REAL Record:            6.11 – 0.89)     (6.69 – 1.31)

The Wolverines are scoring 0.39  more runs per game than the Rosebuds, while allowing 0.67 more. So the W’s are gaining a little from their allocations on both offense and defense. They are also gaining a teensy bit in some other numbers that don’t show up in OPS:

Those extra stolen bases are helping just a smidge.  The W’s having played 8 to the ‘Buds’ 7 means Portland is striking out at least once more per game, accounting for 0.03 runs per game of the Wolverines’ advantage.  The Portland’s extra GDP’s also take some wind out of their offense, a little more than a single’s worth each time.  And it’s likely those extra 82 unused plate appearances are storing up quite a few runs.

But that isn’t enough for them to keep up — the Rosebuds are still generating a bigger differential between runs scored and runs allowed.  So the rest of the Wolverines’ advantage is embodied in the extra game they have played.  Add one game at our current September winning percentages and the Rosebuds will surge to a 0.65 game lead. Add the other game the Rosebuds were short coming into the month, and we’re up to a 1.5 game lead.

On the other hand, it’s unlikely that either team can keep up a winning percentage above 0.800 all month.  Which team will crack first? Which will crack hardest? BP still projects the Rosebuds to gain 6.4 games on a replacement team, while the Wolverines are supposed to gain only 5.0.  Portland is still far deeper than Old Detroit. So the odds are still with Portland. But every day the W’s maintain that 0.2 game lead, a little more light leaks into Old Detroit’s dark prospects.

The Kangaroos seem to be on course to retake 3rd place from the Outs.  Canberra’s September winning percentage so far is .805, generating a 7 – 2 record (really 7.25 – 1.75). Brookland, on the other hand, is currently suffering through a 0.278 winning percentage spell, generating a 2 – 6 (actually 2.22 – 5.78) September record.  These things are hard to turn around, so even if the teams suddenly return to their normal performances, the Outs should continue to collect extra wins as the teams glide back toward their means. BP projects the Outs to gain 4.5 games on replacement over the rest of the season, while it gives the ‘Roos 4.7 games.  This could be another very close race.

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These three mid-league teams are in a race for the pivot position in the league  (6th place, currently held by the Tornados). This weekend they featured similar offenses and pitching performances, at least in terms of net effect: lots of runs scored, and lots of runs allowed. But they reach these achievements via different paths.  Pittsburgh emphasized slugging, amassing an isolated power of .354 with 7 homers, two triples, and 3 doubles — that’s 12 extra base hits from 10 players.  On the other hand, the Dragons’ main weapon was the free base: 21 walks and 3 hbp.  Those walks elevated the Dragons’ OBP by 197 points!  Haviland’s 543 walks on the season trail only the Wolverines’ 552, but a couple more days like these last two should give the Dragons the league lead.

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Some notes for our teams forming the foundation of the league:

* Yes, the Cheese and the Drive had identical pitching lines.   So cute!

* The Drive drove in runs with five sacrifice flies in two games. That’s a lot. Sacrifice flies are the greasy french fries of the batting diet.  They taste good, sometimes, but overall they do not nourish your runs created per game.

* Compare the teams leading the league in walks this season (Old Detroit 552, Haviland 543) with the last-place-in-walks Pears, at only 335, and you will be tempted to draw some conclusions about the role of walks in a successful team…

* They are the Balk.  Therefor they should be willing to balk on their plan to leave the EFL. But if they don’t Balk, we are going to miss some of their players. Matt Chapman would be my choice if we survivors could keep a memento of the Balk for our very own.

AL East
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Boston Red Sox	98	46	.681	—
Old Detroit Wolverines	93	51	.648	4.7
New York Yankees	89	54	.622	8.5
Tampa Bay Rays	78	64	.549	19
Flint Hill Tornadoes	75	69	.522	22.8
Toronto Blue Jays	65	78	.455	32.5
Baltimore Orioles	41	102	.287	56.5

NL East
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Canberra Kangaroos	81	62	.564	—
Atlanta Braves	79	64	.552	1.6
Philadelphia Phillies	74	68	.521	6.1
Washington Nationals	71	72	.497	9.6
New York Mets	65	77	.458	15.1
D.C. Balk	62	81	.434	18.6
Miami Marlins	56	86	.394	24.1

AL Central
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Cleveland Indians	81	62	.566	—
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	76	67	.532	5
Minnesota Twins	65	77	.458	15.5
Detroit Tigers	59	84	.413	22
Chicago White Sox	56	87	.392	25
Kansas City Royals	47	95	.331	33.5

NL Central
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Chicago Cubs	83	59	.585	—
Milwaukee Brewers	82	62	.569	2
Brookland Outs	81	61	.567	2.4
St. Louis Cardinals	79	64	.552	4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates	71	71	.500	12
Cottage Cheese	68	74	.477	15.3
Cincinnati Reds	61	83	.424	23

AL West
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Houston Astros	89	54	.622	—
Oakland A’s	87	57	.604	2.5
Seattle Mariners	79	64	.552	10
Haviland Dragons	72	71	.501	17.4
Los Angeles Angels	71	72	.497	18
Kaline Drive	66	77	.464	22.7
Texas Rangers	61	82	.427	28

NL West
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Portland Rosebuds	92	50	.649	—
Colorado Rockies	78	64	.549	14.1
Los Angeles Dodgers	78	65	.545	14.6
Arizona Diamondbacks	76	67	.531	16.6
San Francisco Giants	68	76	.472	25.1
Peshastin Pears	65	77	.459	27
San Diego Padres	57	88	.393	36.6