Just a few days ago I was crowing about how the distortive effects of competing head-to-head against MLB teams were evening out. But this week we learned that, while the Universe may bend toward justice — or at least regress toward the mean (not a terrible operationalization of justice) — the arc of the universe is long, but not smooth.
The Oakland A’s lost twice to the Red Sox by a total score of 13 – 2 to open Week 10. Haviland faces the Red Sox this week. Salem faces the A’s. The Red Sox’ predicted winning percentage from those two games is .977. The A’s’ predicted winning percentage, of course, is .023.
Salem’s own players played well Saturday and Sunday. Six Seraphim soared at or above 1.000 OPS, led by Alejandro Kirk’s 1.841 (3 for 7 with two homers and two walks). Seraphim pitchers struggled some, and didn’t all appear — but still, they managed to get the team ERA to come in at 4.54. With 13.3 runs scored and 9.8 runs allowed, Salem posted an expected winning percentage of .648. But with the A’s being battered 13-2, Salem’s actual adjusted winning percentage so far this week is .987.
I haven’t heard any complaints from Seraphim Manor, Salem’s new HQ. But then, I haven’t heard any from the Dragons, either. But you just know there has to be some howling going on deep in their cavernous lair: they earned a predicted winning percentage of .757. But after being battered by the Red Sox, Haviland’s adjusted winning percentage for the week is now…. .069. That’s a .688 drop! Instead of being 1.5 – 0.5 at this point in Week 10, they are 0.1 – 1.9.
The Red Sox move on today to face the Angels in Anaheim. The Dragons are no dummies. If the Seraphim are going to play with the cosmic dice against the Dragons, the Dragons will get similarly semi-divine beings to throw dice against the Red Sox. If this plan works, the jagged line of the Universe’s arc will sharply shift back toward justice.
But those wily Seraphim may still have a trick or two up their long flowing sleeves. The A’s are off today before appearing in Atlanta to face the defending world champions. Atlanta’s record is a modest 28-27, better than the Red Sox were on Saturday morning (25 – 27) when Week 10 started. Will the A’s continue their mysterious abysmal play for the entire week they are head to head with the Seraphim?
But here is a word of good cheer for the Dragons: this week is long, too, 7 days instead of 6. So perhaps the universe will have time to bend back the other way for a while.
Who won Saturday’s draft? It’s an interesting question, since we were drafting before any results were in for Week 10.
- The Cascades didn’t get anyone in the draft. They could still win this contest, if it turns out all the other teams hurt themselves.
- The Wolverines didn’t get anyone in the draft, sort of. They claimed Jackie Bradley, Jr. off the EWW, and paid the Alleghenys to take Louis Garcia the infielder from the EWW (which the Wolverines couldn’t do themselves because they had put Garcia there by DFAing him). JBJ didn’t play and — who knows — may never play, which would mean $2,750,000 was flushed straight down the toilet. Garcia, on the other hand, went 5 for 8 with a double and a SF (.667 OBP, 1.306 OPS, 24.7 rcg, 5 RBI). Old Detroit only allocated Garcia 67%, but that was AFTER the draft, so it doesn’t hurt OD’s cause in this contest.
- The Balk drafted George Kirby, Martin Perez, and Christopher Morel. Their performances so far:
- Kirby: 6 ip, 2 er; Perez: 6 ip, 2 er; Morel: 6 for 14 with 2 doubles and a walk (1.038 OPS, 13.0 rc/g). All solid contributions, all activated 100%, all helping the Balk get the league’s best raw weekly winning percentage so far (0.935).
- (But Perez cost a million dollars more than JBJ! something like 37% more expensive)
- [Perez has been infinity % more valuable than JBJ so far.]
- The Seraphim got Oscar Gonzalez. Period. That Votaw/Duncan family is just not that acquisitive, content with what they have. All that spiritual wisdom, plus Oscar Gonzalez — can that match the presumptive leaders, the Balk? Let’s see … Gonzalez went 2 for 7 with a walk, a .661 OPS, creating 4.6 runs per game. Gonzalez brought Salem’s down to its current still-excellent 6.6 rc/g. The Balk still have the lead.
- The Dragons got Graham Ashcraft, Konnor Pilkington and Alek Thomas. Perhaps Haviland should get some points for preventing the Wolverines from getting Ashcraft, who was high on their list. Setting that aside, here are the results so far: Ashcraft and Pilkington have not pitched yet. Thomas is 0 for 7 with a walk. Rankings so far: Balk, Wolverines (despite JBJ!), Salem … and then, I guess, Bellingham (for not hurting themselves), but with a chance for the Dragons to move up when/if Ashcraft and Pilkington play.
- (How would the last name “Ashcraft” ever develop? What would someone craft out of ash? I don’t think I’ve ever seen an ash-crafted nativity or anything…)
- [“Pilkington” is also a puzzler. Not something simple and understandable like “John’s son” or “Smith.”]
- (Or “Mock”.)
- The Tornados got Jason Adam (1.2 ip, 0 earned runs), Michael Harris II ( 2 for 9 with a double, 2.6 rc/g), and Nomar Mazara (no stats yet). Adam has definitely helped, Harris is below replacement so far, and Mazara has done no harm. This is not enough to be at or near the top of the list.
- The Kangaroos got Jhoan Duran (one of three Duran debs this year — Texas had another one debut this weekend!): 1 scoreless inning, with the TV announcers raving about him. Canberra also picked up Juan Yepez (2 for 8 with a double and a walk, .708 OPS, 4.8 rc/g — a little above the Kangaroo hitters’ 4.4 rcg. for the week). Yepez, playing for the Cardinals, threw home from left field when there was no chance of getting the runner, allowing the batter to take second, and unleashing some sharp criticism from the Cubs announcer I was listening to — Ron Coomer, I think it was.
- The ‘Roos also got $2,750,000 salary relief from some sucker who took JBJ off the waiver wire. That may not catch them up with the Balk, but definitely puts them into second place so far.
- Kaline got Brandon Donovan, whom I hadn’t even noticed on the list, and Felix Bautista, whom I noticed and liked but decided I wouldn’t pursue. Kaline slides into third place (so far) with:
- Donovan: 6 for 13 with 3 doubles, a walk, and a stolen based (1.192 OPS, 19.1 rc/g).
- Bautista: 1 inning, 0 earned runs.
- Portland got Jakob Junis (6 ip, 1 er), Nolan Gorman (1 for 10 with a walk, .282 OPS, 0.6 rc/g), and MJ Melendez (2 for 6 with three walks, .833 OPS, 8.4 rc/g). So now our standings are: DC, CK, KD, PR, OD, SS, FH, BC, HD.
- Peshastin got three pitchers: Alex Faedo, Alexis Diaz, and Penn Murfee. I like all three of these guys, in that order — I bid on at least two of them. Unfortunately Diaz blew up in his first appearance for the Pears: 1 ip, 3 er, a nasty triple chulk. He can come back from this, but we are only looking at these first two days to decide for all time who won the draft. Faedo and Murfee have not appeared yet, so the Pears take last place in the competition, pending results from Pittsburgh.
- The Alleghenys got the two most-hyped prospect in the draft: Ad Rutschman and Royce Lewis. Royce hasn’t appeared yet, and Adley from Linfield (and probably the nephew or possibly a grand-nephew of a girl I went to high school with at Hilhi) went 0 for 4 in his Allegheny debut. A triple chulk is worse than an 0 for 4, so Peshastin clings to its last-place finish in this friendly competition which no one will probably ever mention to him again. I’m sure. Because we are such kind, good sports.
Final draft standings: DC, CK, KD, PR, OD, SS, FH, BC, PA, HD, PP
[You idiot — you’ve put Haviland in 10th place. You KNOW it’s a bad idea to poke a Dragon. So why did you have to go and do it twice?!](I call ’em as I see ’em. Just because PA and BC are helpless, inert piles of rock, doesn’t mean it’s right to abuse them. Rocks are moral patients, too.)