FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan came up with a final summary of all their position projections and turned into a giant 30 x 14 table predicting how many wins each MLB team would end up with. It looks impressive, but is embarrassingly flawed. It omits 9 teams, its wins projections make no sense given the WAR projections, and it doesn’t predict the 2016 Rookie Draft order.
So I stepped into the breach.
| 2015 | Team | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RP | Hit | Pit | WAR | Proj. W | 2016 Draft |
| 1 | Wolverines | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 37.8 | 14.5 | 52.3 | 100 | 30 |
| 2 | Dodgers | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 16.9 | 2.3 | 28.3 | 19.2 | 47.4 | 95 | 29 |
| 3 | Cheese | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 10.9 | 1.8 | 33.8 | 12.7 | 46.5 | 94 | 28 |
| 4 | Nationals | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 17.9 | 1.9 | 26.4 | 19.8 | 46.0 | 93 | 27 |
| 5 | Cardinals | 4.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 27.3 | 16.5 | 43.9 | 91 | — |
| 6 | Alleghenys | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 27.9 | 15.9 | 43.8 | 91 | 26 |
| 7 | Pears | 5.0 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 15.4 | 0.9 | 26.5 | 16.3 | 42.8 | 90 | 25 |
| 8 | Rosebuds | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 27.6 | 12.5 | 40.1 | 87 | 24 |
| 9 | Angels | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 10.8 | 1.4 | 27.3 | 12.1 | 39.4 | 87 | — |
| 10 | Indians | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 13.4 | 1.4 | 23.9 | 14.8 | 38.8 | 86 | 23 |
| 11 | Red Sox | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 29.2 | 8.5 | 37.7 | 85 | 22 |
| 12 | Dragons | 1.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 23.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 85 | 21 |
| 13 | Mariners | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 12.3 | 1.8 | 23.3 | 14.1 | 37.5 | 85 | 20 |
| 14 | Pirates | 2.0 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.4 | 2.0 | 24.8 | 12.4 | 37.2 | 85 | 19 |
| 15 | Yankees | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 22.8 | 14.4 | 37.2 | 85 | — |
| 16 | Tigers | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 12.0 | 36.8 | 84 | 18 |
| 17 | Cubs | 2.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 2.1 | 20.9 | 15.2 | 36.2 | 84 | 17 |
| 18 | Mets | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 20.8 | 14.6 | 35.3 | 83 | — |
| 19 | Blue Jays | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 27.6 | 7.5 | 35.1 | 82 | 16 |
| 20 | Kangaroos | 1.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 26.7 | 8.3 | 35.0 | 82 | 15 |
| 21 | Rays | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 22.2 | 12.4 | 34.6 | 82 | — |
| 22 | Tornados | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 24.0 | 10.3 | 34.3 | 82 | 14 |
| 23 | Athletics | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 24.0 | 10.1 | 34.2 | 82 | 13 |
| 24 | Padres | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 33.6 | 81 | 12 |
| 25 | Orioles | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 25.2 | 7.9 | 33.0 | 80 | — |
| 26 | Giants | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 20.5 | 12.1 | 32.7 | 80 | 11 |
| 27 | Royals | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 23.2 | 8.7 | 31.9 | 79 | 10 |
| 28 | Brewers | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 22.5 | 9.1 | 31.6 | 79 | 9 |
| 29 | Astros | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 9.2 | 30.4 | 78 | — |
| 30 | Marlins | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 | 19.9 | 10.5 | 30.2 | 78 | 8 |
| 31 | Drive | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 20.6 | 9.4 | 30.0 | 77 | 7 |
| 32 | Reds | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 19.3 | 10.4 | 29.8 | 77 | 6 |
| 33 | White Sox | 1.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 29.0 | 76 | — |
| 34 | Twins | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 27.0 | 74 | 5 |
| 35 | Rockies | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 20.5 | 6.3 | 26.9 | 74 | 4 |
| 36 | D-backs | 0.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 8.3 | 26.1 | 73 | 3 |
| 37 | Braves | 1.6 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 25.1 | 72 | — |
| 38 | Rangers | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 5.6 | -0.3 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 24.9 | 72 | 2 |
| 39 | Phillies | 2.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 21.1 | 68 | 1 |
Once again, I used your April allocations (or made up allocations for you) to see how much WAR you were getting into your lineups and rotations. (I used FanGraphs Depth Charts WAR.) Some of the FanGraphs WAR ratings have changed in the last few days, and your allocations are not fixed permanently until Saturday evening at midnight PDT, so things are still in flux here. I also had to adjust the wins projections down a little to get the MLB team projections to balance at 81 wins on average.
So I guess these would be the final pre-season projections, the ones you put on your locker-room bulletin board to motivate your players. Your general manager has done most of his work. Now let’s see what your field manager can do with the talent he’s been given, and what your players can do to embarrass the projection-makers.
The Wolverines are already licking their chops over that #15 pick Canberra is going to earn for them.
Yes, the Drive fully expects to finish last, but it is consoling to see how many teams are crummier in the “real” world.
This is certainly a flattering prognostication. Yet I find it to be more scary than pleasing. For a team that has never even had a winning record, one that is used to the lower echelons, to be suddenly thrust into the spotlight of Great Expectations makes me squirm a bit. I’m sure there is something I can do to mess this up. Usually I find a way.
The Cheese would be happy with finishing ahead of the Pears (it’s our turn this year) and beating down those impertinent Tornadoes. Our Cottage St. fans would rejoice with that outcome.