Seeking Truth … and Finding It

EFL Standings for 2017

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Cottage:  W, 6 – 4. (.194, .356, .472;  1 ip, 0 er).  Not an overwhelming day for the league leaders, but still enough to lengthen their lead in the pennant race, intensifying the specter of a race-less summer.  But was it a True-blue day for the Cheese. Seven strikeout, 9 walks, 3 homers: that’s 19 Three True Outcomes (walks, stirkeouts, homers — in which the ball is never in play) in 45 plate appearances: 42.2%.  Pretty high. If the Cheese were a single player, with career stats along those lines, they would come in just after Jay Buhner and just in front of Ken Phelps at 36th on the all-time MLB list!

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Interlude: I have just solved a great mystery in baseball history, infecting popular culture via Seinfeld:  What was Steinbrenner thinking?  Well, Jay Buhner is 35th on the all time TTO list at 42.6%.  Ken Phelps is 36th at 42.3%.  They are actually the same player!

Don’t believe me? Well, look at these career stats:

         Buhner: .254, .359, .494 — that’s an OPS of .853.

         Phelps:   .239, .373, .480 — that’s an OPS of… .853.

What are the odds of players next to each other on the TTO list being exactly the same on the OPS list? There is still the matter of age.  Phelps is 10 years older.  But, sheesh, what’s 10 years when the numbers are so exactly alike?

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Flint Hill: L, 4 – 4. (.242, .242,.455; 0 pitching).  In 33 plate appearances, the Tornadoes amassed 0 walks.  No HBP, either.  The Tornadoes were one of two teams in the EFL to accomplish this walk-less offense, which is what got me wondering about Three True Outcomes  today. The Tornadoes got 14 true outcomes anyway: 1 homer, and 13 strikeouts. 13 of the 15 outs they made were on whiffs or episodes of standing there like the house by the side of the road and watching that one go by.  The Tornadoes achieved a 42.4% true outcomes rate, which would rank 35th on the individual all-time list, without recording a single free pass! Had they walked just 4 or 5 times, their rate would have surpassed the all-time Three True Outcomes career leader, Jack Cust (53.0%).

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Kaline:  W (-1), L 2; 3 – 10.  (.245, .305, .302;   0.7 ip, 2 er).  Marc Rzepczynske’s little triple chulk blew a save yesterday for the M’s, so the Drive suffered, too.  The Drive did collect 5 walks in 58 plate appearances, but they also struck out 16 times. Without any homers to go with the walks and k’s, the Drive’s 36.2% TTO rate would tie them with Mike Blowers for 205th on the all-time list . The Drive have the guy in 34th place all-time — the one who would be just barely ahead of the Tornadoes on the all-time career list.  Can you guess who that might be?  He didn’t play yesterday, at least not at the major league level; perhaps if they’d had this guy in the lineup they could have come closer to matching the Tornadoes’ level of performance.

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Haviland: W, 13 – 3. (.370, .452, .852;  2.3 ip, 0 er).  That massive offensive stat line is mitigated only slightly by the mere 32 plate appearances it represents.  Still, it was enough to vault the Dragons over their arch-rival Alleghenys for fourth place in the standings.  Were the Dragons straight and True in their outcomes? Let’s see: 4 walks, 4 strikeouts, 4 homers. That is impressive,  and it’s a respectable 37.5% for TTO, which would land them in the vicinity of Bob Hamelin about about 155th on the all-time list. A player who could homer, walk, and strikeout, each in 12.5% of his plate appearances, would be the all-time greatest. By far.

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Pittsburgh: W, 10 – 5. (.354, .446, .729;  27 ip, 14 er).  Kind of like the Dragons, except not quite as good at hitting, and not at pitching, either. On the other hand, J.D. Martinez had 7 plate appearances. He homered twice, walked twice unintentionally, and twice intentionally. Only one of his outcomes was untrue, for an 83.33% TTO ratio.  The team overall had 22 true outcomes, out of 55 plate appearances (I’m ignoring a HBP since I don’t know if they count as True or not), for 40.0% TTO, good enough to tie Dan Uggla for 68th all time.

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Peshastin: L, 5 – 9. (.235,.291, .373; 6.7 ip, 6 er).  A day the Pear Manager will be glad to have missed. And with only 14 true outcomes in 55 plate appearances,  the Pears’ 25.5% TTO ratio ties them with Lou Whitaker at 1191st all time. Eminent company, indeed, but not on TTO grounds.

Portland: “L”, 5 – 3.  (.265, .306, .588;  7.7 ip, 2 er).   Corey Dickerson homered twice and struck out twice in 5 plate appearances, for an awesome 80% TTO day.  The team, however, managed only 13 true outcomes in 36 plate appearances, for a 36.1% TTO rate, putting them at 211th all time with Jeff Bagwell.

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Canberra:  W, 7 – 2. (.283, .313, .522;  4 ip, 0 er)  Chris Davis rivaled  Martinez and Dickerson for the EFL’s daily TTO lead: 1 k, 2 walks, 2 homers in 7 plate appearances, for a TTO rate of 71.4%.  His 6th outcome was a double, so you might think he had the better day overall. The ‘Roos 37.5% TTO rate ties them with the Dragons, Bob Hamelin, and the great Pancho Herrera.

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By the way, the active EFL Three True Outcomes career leader is Canberra’s Chris Davis, at 47.2%, good for 9th all time as of this morning. In third place on the active EFL list? Ewie and fellow Kangaroo Mark Reynolds is in 11th place all time at 46.9%.  Here’s a trivia question for you: who is the active EFL player in 10th place all time among all MLB players.  Clue: he’s not a Kangaroo.

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Old Detroit: W, 6 – 3. (.333, .333, .476; 14 ip, 8 er).  The Wolverines neither walked (0 BB in 42 PA), nor did they give a walk (0 BB surrendered in at least 62 batters faced).  That means in at least 104 PA, no one walked.  Nine W’s struck out, and one homered, for a paltry 23.8% TTO. That would be good for about 1450th all-time, right there with Tim Raines or Mike Hargrove.  Hmm.  I’d take a lineup full of Tim Raineses. Meanwhile, Wolverine pitchers struck out 15 and surrendered 2 homers (with their 0 walks) in what we’ll call 62 plate appearances — holding opponents to under 30% TTO.

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DC:  L, 1 – 6. (.126, .308, .226;  7.3 ip, 3 er).  The Balk sent 11 men to the plate, for a total of 39 plate appearances. Two of them got hits (Welington Castillo: 3;  Gerardo Parra: 1, a homer).  Those two also walked, as did 4 others, for a total of 7 walks and a hbp.  That is barely any offense at all. The Balk team TTO percentage — 34.8% — puts them about 273rd all time, along with Jake Marisnick.

Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2017