Climate Change?

EFL
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB	RS	RA
Canberra Kangaroos	7	1	.849	—	61.4	25.9
Cottage Cheese	6	3	.666	1.3	61.1	43.2
Portland Rosebuds	6	3	.664	1.3	46.1	32.8
Old Detroit Wolverines	6	3	.651	1.4	54.6	40.0
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	5	2	.648	1.8	45.4	33.4
Peshastin Pears	5	4	.602	1.9	48.1	39.1
Flint Hill Tornadoes	5	4	.588	2	59.4	49.7
Kaline Drive	5	4	.528	2.5	28.9	27.4
Bellingham Cascades	3	4	.464	3	29.7	31.9
D.C. Balk	3	5	.326	4.2	26.0	37.4
Brookland Outs	3	6	.288	4.7	28.4	44.6
Haviland Dragons	2	7	.269	4.9	33.4	55.2

Canberra:  W 3,  L (-1); 28 – 5. (47 PA, .465, .511, 1.604; 8 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA).  They say global warming is generating more extreme weather. Well, look at this. With two games Saturday, thanks to the Mets passing the Phillies in the NL East, and the ‘Roos having probably their best day ever, Canberra topped the dramatic surge the Pears had a few days ago.  Canberra only leapt over two other teams, because they started in 3rd place. But the Pears only gained 1.6 games in a single day.  The Pears gained 1.8.  And 28 – 5 may be the most lopsided score we’ve ever seen in the EFL. (It’s really two 14 – 2.5 games, I realize, but still.)

With all these stunning offensive storms arising from unlikely sources this year so far (eg., the Mariners, who scored 9 runs yesterday for 73 in only 10 games… good for SECOND in MLB after the Dodgers with 72 in 9 games.  As of this moment, they’re ahead 11 – 2 against the White Sox), I got to wondering just how much scoring is up this season. In 2017, the average MLB team scored 753 runs, or 4.65 per game — pretty high, historically. Last year that total slid to 721 runs (4.45 per game).  So far this year?  4.47 runs per game.  So the impression of an unprecedented offensive explosion in MLB is spurious.

Is offensive talent might be concentrated in the better teams more than in the past?  Here are the highest and lowest scoring MLB teams over the last 4 years, and the percentage by which the highest outscored the lowest:

Year	High	Low	% Difference
2018	876	589	48.7%
2017	896	604	48.3%
2016	878	610	43.9%
2015	891	573	55.5%
2014	773	535	44.5%
2013	853	513	66.3%
2012	808	583	38.6%

Going back to 2005, the differences run about the same, ranging from 35.0% to 67.4%. Coming into today’s games, the Dodgers were scoring 8 runs a game, and the Reds were scoring only 2 runs per game.  The difference was 300%. This is, of course, an artifact of a small sample size.

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What about in the EFL? Our pitchers and defenses are allowing 4.51 runs per game, pretty close to historical MLB averages.  But our hitters are scoring 5.12 runs per game. Of course, the Kangaroos are way beyond the rest of us. They are scoring 7.68  runs each game, while their pitchers and defenders are surrendering a mere 3.24.  The Kangaroos are batting like every pitcher they face is a replacement player, and pitching and defending like 8 out of every 9 batters they face are replacement players.

EFL
Year	High	Low	% Difference
2019	61.4	26	136.2%
2018	912.8	689	32.5%
2017	946.8	779.9	21.4%
2016	862.1	672.4	28.2%
2015	840.7	658.6	27.6%
2014	835.5	621.7	34.4%
2013	844	647	30.4%
2012	870	605	43.8%

Going back to 2005, the range in the EFL is about the same, with a minimum difference of only 17% in the 6-team 2016 season.

I don’t think the Kangaroos are going to score 1150 or 1200 runs this season, although that’s the pace they’re on.  Things will cool off. ..

On the other hand, when the Pears rocketed to the top of the standings, they led by less than 0.1 games.  The ‘Roos lead by 1.3 — thirteen times the margin.  The Pears have sifted back down to 6th place, one place above their first-place-bound launching pad.  The K’s had nine players OPSing 1.000 or better yesterday: Abreu, Alfaro, Anderson, Beckham, Bregman, Conforto, Hoskins, Mullins, Soler.  There were 8 homers (2 by Alfaro).  The Kangaroos don’t look like they’ll be sifting back down anytime soon.

Cottage: L, 2 – 4. (46 PA, .209, .261, .442;  10.7 ip, 6 er, 5.06 ip). Didn’t Eric Thames just hit a pinch hit homer Friday?  He did it again Saturday. Two days in a row Thames hit pinch-hit 3-run blasts, his only homers of the season, raising his season OPS to 1.273. (Thames went 0 for 4 already today, so he his OPS is back under 1.000.)

Portland: W, 5 – 5. (52 PA, .318, .407, .705; no pitching).  Forget Canberra. If you can.  Because if you can, then the Rosebuds’ offensive day looks super impressive: six guys OPSing over 1.000, led by JD Davis’ 4.000 OPS (two homers, a single and a walk in 4 plate appearances). No pitching — fortunately — and somehow some of that great hitting sank into the sands…Ah. JD Davis was allocated 100% on the bench.  Fellow sluggers Billy McKinney (2 for 4 with a double, 60% active) and Kevin Newman (2 for 4 with a double and a walk, 33% active) also sent some of their offense off into the ether.

Old Detroit: W, 10 – 3. (39 PA, .382, .450, .618; 13.3 ip, 4 er, 2.70 ERA).  Josh Bell awoke! 3 for 5 with two doubles and a homer. Eloy Jimenez stirred in his slumber! (3 for 4, all singles).  Of the 10 Wolverines sent to the plate, only pinch hitter Alen Hanson failed to reach safely. [More of this, please.]

Pittsburgh: “W”, 4- 5. (29 PA, .217, .379, .261; 6 ip. 3 er, 4.50 ERA).  A thoroughly modern mediocre day. I give credit to Allegheny management for believing in Steven Piscotty.  I concluded over a year ago he would never break through.  But Piscotty has overcome personal tragedy and related career stumbles. He went 2 for 3 yesterday with a double and a walk, raising his season OPS to a fine .874.  Six Alleghenys have season OPSes over 1.000, but all of them except JD Martinez have limited plate appearances (29 or fewer).  Piscotty has 52 through Saturday.

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Peshastin: L, 3- 6. (41 PA, .200, .300, .314; 1 ip, 1 er, 9.00 ERA).  I happened to be at an important, um, meeting with Phil Smith last evening.  We went through our EFL rosters checking to see how they had done yesterday, going through the MLB games one at a time.  When we got to the Nationals, Phil straightened up.  “Well,” he said, “I have Eaton, I have Soto, and I have Robles.”  He clearly takes pride in owning the entire Nationals outfield.  As well he should!  He had to be clever and opportunistic to assemble that fine squad.  ( Which went 3 for 11 with a double and 2 walks — not bad, but not enough to lift the team to a victory.)

Flint Hill: “L”, 9 – 6. (54 PA. .304, .400, .543 — Happy Edgar Martinez Day! 8.7 ip, 5 er, 5.19 ERA). Five Tornados OPSed 1.000 or better, led by Yasmani Grandal (2 for 3 with a double and a walk, for a 1.750 OPS). I think the Tornados should trade Grandal to the Cheese so they can field Yoan, Yandy and Yasmani in the same lineup.

Kaline: W 2, L (-2); 4 – (-5). (56 PA, .308, .345, .596; 15 ip, 9 er, 5.40 ERA). The Drive had 6 guys OPS over 1.000, too, like practically everyone so far except the Wolverines.  Their top performer was Yulieski Gurriel, who clouted 3 doubles in 4 trips to the plate. The Drive also struck out 15 times.  A few strikeouts don’t hurt, but when you get 15 in a day their small penalty adds up to a lost run or more.

Bellingham: W, 5 – 2. (29 PA, .360, .448, .400; 6.7 ip, 1 er, 1.35 ERA).  A very nice day, with fine performances by Wide Miley (5.7 ip, 0 er) and Justin Turner (3 for 4 plus a HBP) leading the way.  The impact was limited only by the scarcity of IP and AB.  Even though you might not need more playing time from your players, when they have a good day the extra playing time gives you a little more boost. (Of course it hurts if you have a high volume of playing time on a bad day.)

DC: W 0, L 2; 6 – 14. ( 34 PA, .156, .206, .313;  10 IP, 8 ER, 7.20 ERA).  The Kangaroos had the BEST day in the league Saturday. The Balk might have had the worst.  Of the 10 players the Balk sent to the plate, 6 went 0 for the day. Willians Astudillo homered and walked, but it wasn’t enough.  Plus  Dylan Bundy and Carlos Carrasco were unimpressive over 8.7 ip (5 earned runs), but things got worse when Seranthony Dominguez came in to relieve. He walked Schoop, hit Arianza, got Byron Buxton out, and then served up a homer to Eddie Rosario for an 81.00 ERA on the day, raising his season ERA to 15.43.

Brookland: W. 4 – 3. (38 PA, .235, .316, .412; 7 ip, 2 er, 2.57 ERA). Kyle Wright got a quality start (6 ip 2 er) and Manny Machado (2 for 4 with a homer and a walk) and Cody Bellinger ( 2 for 4 with a double and a triple) led the offense. Adam Jones continues his heartwarming renaissance since escaping Baltimore: 2 for 4 Saturday, OPSing 1.215 on the season, second on the Outs after Bellinger’s 1.402.

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Haviland:  DNP, 0 – (-1). (30 PA, .222, .290, .259; 3 ip, 1 er , 3.00 ERA).  Carlos Santana went 2 for 3 with a walk, and Kolton Wong had a double and a walk in his three plate appearances, to lead the Dragon offense Satyrday.  Hmm. I misspelled Saturday, but maybe Dragon fans will prefer my version considering how they must be feeling about the Dragons’ prolonged sojourn in the EFL cellar. Maybe Satireday would be even better, in hopes that these first 10 days of the season have just been some kind of a bad joke.  Wong continues to be the main pillar in the Dragon offense, batting .423, .484, .923 on the season, an entirely unprecedented level of performance for him.  Dragon fans should find it reassuring that team management saw this coming when the Wolverines had grown frustrated with Wong. Add in the discernment to sense Santana’s impending .444, .516, .593 season line, and the Dragons’ future may be as bright as their past has been.

AL East
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Tampa Bay Rays	6	3	.667	—
Old Detroit Wolverines	6	3	.651	0.1
Flint Hill Tornadoes	5	4	.588	0.7
Baltimore Orioles	4	4	.500	1.5
New York Yankees	4	4	.500	1.5
Toronto Blue Jays	3	7	.300	3.5
Boston Red Sox	2	8	.200	4.5

NL East
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Canberra Kangaroos	7	1	.849	—
New York Mets	6	2	.750	0.8
Philadelphia Phillies	5	2	.714	1.3
Atlanta Braves	4	4	.500	2.8
Washington Nationals	3	4	.429	3.3
D.C. Balk	3	5	.326	4.2
Miami Marlins	3	6	.333	4.3

AL Central
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Minnesota Twins	5	2	.714	—
Detroit Tigers	6	3	.667	—
Pittsburgh Alleghenys	5	2	.648	0.5
Cleveland Indians	5	3	.625	0.5
Bellingham Cascades	3	4	.464	1.7
Chicago White Sox	3	4	.429	2
Kansas City Royals	2	5	.286	3

NL Central
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Milwaukee Brewers	7	2	.778	—
Cottage Cheese	6	3	.666	1
Pittsburgh Pirates	4	3	.571	2
St. Louis Cardinals	3	5	.375	3.5
Brookland Outs	3	6	.288	4.4
Chicago Cubs	2	6	.250	4.5
Cincinnati Reds	1	7	.125	5.5

AL West
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Seattle Mariners	7	2	.778	—
Texas Rangers	5	3	.625	1.5
Oakland A’s	6	5	.545	2
Kaline Drive	5	4	.528	2.2
Houston Astros	3	5	.375	3.5
Los Angeles Angels	2	6	.250	4.5
Haviland Dragons	2	7	.269	4.6

NL West
TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	PCT.	GB
Los Angeles Dodgers	7	2	.778	—
San Diego Padres	6	3	.667	1
Portland Rosebuds	6	3	.664	1
Peshastin Pears	5	4	.602	1.6
Arizona Diamondbacks	5	4	.556	2
San Francisco Giants	3	6	.333	4
Colorado Rockies	3	6	.333	4