We had no update for five days. So last night, after I had all the rosters updated, but awaiting some late allocations and impatient for this morning’s BP update, I did a little study. I wanted to know what each team’s raw batting and pitching stats were through Tuesday’s games, as a very very rough estimate of how each team would fare in the EFL. As Commissioner I was interested in each team. But as the Wolverines’ owner, I admit I was mostly interested in Old Detroit and Portland.
Here are the results, arrayed in the order our standings stood at the end of August:
Team OPS ERA
Old Detroit .621 4.76
Portland .771 3.88
Brookland .723 6.03
Canberra .740 1.10 (!!)
Pittsburgh .828 5.64
Cottage .708 5.79
Flint Hill .811 3.12
Haviland .787 3.51
Kaline .755 4.32
Peshastin .854 3.96
DC .843 3.64
Out-OPSed by .150, out-pitched by almost a run a game: there is no way the W’s were in first place yesterday morning. That’s 4 runs on defense, or almost half a win, and who knows how many runs on offense. I suspect the Ws’ 0.1 game end-of-August lead would be close to a 1-game deficit if we had standings yesterday.
.
I did note with envy the stunning ERA posted by Kangaroo hurlers, although I didn’t think to notice whether they had enough innings to avoid replacements. I also noted how the Pears and the Drive had the kind of numbers I would have loved for the Wolverines.
Why, I asked God, would You waste those wonderful results on teams who a) are ambivalent about them because they are trying to improve their draft position, or b) are no longer competing for the championship? I have some readings You might be interested in about how utilitarianism works…
.
Then I glanced at the MLB box scores. I had read already that Shohei Ohtani was done pitching this season and headed toward TJ surgery — MORE bad news for the Woeverines.
.
But, Lo! Ohtani was still batting — and had homered, singled, and walked! Finally, some good news! And a little later it got even better…
.
EFL Standings for 2018
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
RS |
RA |
| Old Detroit Wolverines |
90 |
51 |
.642 |
— |
698.4 |
512.7 |
| Portland Rosebuds |
89 |
50 |
.643 |
0.2 |
744.2 |
543.7 |
| Brookland Outs |
80 |
59 |
.574 |
9.6 |
739.4 |
643.1 |
| Canberra Kangaroos |
78 |
61 |
.558 |
11.9 |
644.5 |
577.1 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys |
74 |
65 |
.534 |
15.2 |
734.7 |
691.0 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes |
73 |
68 |
.519 |
17.3 |
648.8 |
620.5 |
| Haviland Dragons |
71 |
69 |
.505 |
19.3 |
652.1 |
638.8 |
| Cottage Cheese |
67 |
72 |
.483 |
22.3 |
664.3 |
685.6 |
| Kaline Drive |
66 |
74 |
.468 |
24.5 |
604.7 |
646.7 |
| Peshastin Pears |
65 |
74 |
.466 |
24.7 |
597.1 |
638.8 |
| D.C. Balk |
61 |
78 |
.440 |
28.4 |
608.3 |
685.0 |
.
(Stats are for Sept 1 – 5)
.
Old Detroit: W 3, L 2; 31 – 17. (209 PA, .246, .311, .471; 52 ip, 24 er, 4.15 ERA) Shohei Ohtani went 4 for 4 Wednesday with two homers and a walk – and a stolen base just because. The rest of the team did pretty well, too: .293, .372, .610. Ronald Acuna led off another game with a homer, his second in September, and Muncy, Schwarber, and Candelario homered, too. Even Lewis Brinson went 2 for 3. The team’s OPS overall: 1.209. That and a scoreless inning from Shawn Armstrong worked wonders! The W’s are still — or, more likely, back — in first place! Amazing.
.
Portland: W 3, L 1; 24 – 11. (317 PA, .253, .347, .430; 63 ip, 23 er, 3.29 ERA). I would like to advise the Rosebuds to give up at this point, but they aren’t going to be persuaded, for three very significant reasons:
1. That little study I did last night had another angle to it. I checked Baseball Prospectus’ forecasts for how each of our teams are likely to do over the remainder of the season, in terms of WAR. Here are those results:
Team Projected WAE
Old Detroit 6.3
Portland 7.8
Brookland 5.5
Canberra 5.3
Pittsburgh 4.2
Cottage 3.3
Flint Hill 4.6
Kaline 3.5
Peshastin 3.9
DC 3.5
Baseball Prospectus expects the Rosebuds to gain 1.5 games on the W’s over the remainder of the season.
2. The Rosebuds are still outperforming the W’s this month, and doing it in more innings and far more plate appearances. They have depth the W’s can’t match. In fact they probably have statistics better than the W’s stored up in underallocated (or more likely being wasted in over-allocated) positions. September is notorious for punching holes in EFL lineups as call-ups eat away at our players’ playing times and players a little banged up (or slated for the post season) are rested. The Rosebuds are in FAR better shape to handle that playing-time erosion.
3. The only reason the W’s are still in front is they’ve played two more games. The Rosebuds’ winning percentage is already better than the W’s. At their current .643 winning percentage, those extra two games should produce 1.286 extra wins — strongly confirming BP’s projections.
So the odds are still that the Rosebuds should win by at least a game. But a game is a small margin of error. There’s a good chance the W’s can make a race of this down into the final week. And who knows? Maybe Ohtani will hit 2 homers a game from now until then!
.
Brookland: W 2, L 3; 26 – 40. (239 PA, .245, .318, .458; 44.3 ip, 37 er, 7.51 ERA). Replacement level pitching! That’s a killer. Some of it can be allocated away, but when the front runners are winning at a .640 pace and getting better you can’t keep up with reallocations. You need several players to step up and over-perform for a while. Even so, normally 9.6 games back with 23 left to play means it’s over.
.
HOWEVER, this is not MLB. It’s the EFL. In the EFL, no one is ever mathematically eliminated who begins September with more games left than they are behind. Brookland started September with 28 games to play, but 7.3 games back. Now they are 9.6 games out with 23 to play. Even if they get up in the morning on September 30 behind by 50 games, they can still redeem the month of September. All they have to do is win the last game by a huge but theoretically possible score — you know, Outs scoring in the top of the 51st inning to win 200 – 0, or something like that. We haven’t seen it yet, but it’s not strictly impossible.
.
Canberra: W 5, L 0; 23 – 10 (218 PA, .251, .303, .448; 48.3 ip, 10 er, 1.86 ERA). Kangaroo pitchers stumbled yesterday, at least by their September standards: 15.7 ip, 6 er, 3.45 ERA. That was mostly Andrew Suarez coughing up 5 er in 6 ip, by far the worst pitching performance Canberra has seen in this September home stand. The next worst one: Lucchesi’s 2 er in 5 ip. Lucchesi couldn’t hold his head up around the clubhouse, lugging that 3.60 ERA. The next worst September ERAs in Canberra belong to those slackers Blake Snell and Corey Kluber (1.35) who profligately permitted an earned run to score in their 6.7 ip. The ‘Roos have six relievers. None has allowed an earned run this months so far.
.
If a team starting September 12.2 games out was going to make a run for the title, this is how they’d do it. (That and dumping James Paxton on the unsuspecting Rosebuds, with his 5.40 September ERA. Amazingly clever!) And it’s working! The K’s have already gained 0.3 games against the super-hot Wolverines and Rosebuds! They only need to do that 37 more times! That’s only 185 days! At their current pace, the Kangaroos will run down the Wolverines about the 10th of March.
.
Pittsburgh: W 4, L 1; 29 – 14. (185 PA, .275, .328, .478; 45.7 ip, 28 er, 5.52 ERA). The Alleghenys must be master allocators. They turn a raw 5.52 ERA into a mere 2.8 runs allowed per game. Without even looking (time is pressing) I can guess: they didn’t activate Marco Estrada, Shane Greene, or Trevor Richards. Those three pitchers combined to go 6.7 innings, allowing 17 runs. The rest of the team pitched 39 innings, allowing 11 runs, for an ERA of 2.54. See? Easy peasy.
.
As a result, the Alleghenys are also gaining on the league leaders, albeit at only 2/3 the rate of the Kangaroos. If Canberra falters, the Alleghenys will be in position to take over the lead in June. Which, of course, they probably actually will do.
.
Flint Hill: W 4, L 1; 30 – 17. (165 PA, .259, .339, .456; 43.3 ip, 16 er, 3.32 ERA). Such an efficient operation! The Tornados have the least innings or plate appearances of anyone so far in Septemher, but they are keeping pace with the league leaders. Just think what the Tornados’ manager could do if his general manager supplied him with a better roster!
.
Haviland: W 4, L 1; 35 – 17. (223 PA, .301, .404, .457; 37 ip, 20 er, 4.86 ERA). Another hot team from the lower reaches of the league! The Dragons have ascended all the way to 7th place. Tyler Glasnow’s monster Royal Chulk (0.7 ip, 7 er) got allocated right out of the team’s official record, lowering that team ERA to 3.22. Of course — and this applies to all of us — the benefits we gained by being able to allocate away early-month busts will dissipate as the month wears on. But we can enjoy them while they last, and especially when they boost us in the standings as they have done for the Dragons.
.
Cottage: W 1, L 4; 15 – 34. (153 PA, .228, .307, .346; 26.3 ip, 17 er, 5.81 ERA). Those 26.3 ip are not enough for 5 games. We need at least 7 ip per game to avoid replacements. The 153 PA are probably not enough, either: we need at least 30 per game, assuming they are perfectly distributed among the various positions. But with Danny Duffy shutting down for the season with his 40.50 September ERA, maybe the Cheese are thinking it is easier to just swim down and get a nice draft pick.
.
Kaline: W 2, L 3; 19 – 26. (229 PA, .240, .301, .385; 35 ip, 18 er, 4.63 ERA). Brian Johnson triple chulked and Marcus Stroman double chulked (each allowing 4 runs in less than 2 innings pitched), but Trevor Williams and Michael Fulmer picked up a lot of the slack (12.3 ip, 1 er) and new acquisition Xavier Cedeno contributed 2.3 scoreless innings. Now 8 games below their preferred .500 level performance, the Drive have some work to do this month.
.
Peshastin: W 3, L 1; 27 – 18. (207 PA, .297, .343, .563; 30 ip, 12 er, 3.60 ERA). I would love to see the Wolverines perform like this! Only one hitter (Joey Gallo, .276 OPS) is OPSing below .727. Seven are OPSing .900 or better, led by the resurgent Kevin Kiermaier (1.831 in 17 PA).
.
DC: W 3, L 2; 31 – 19. (175 PA, .267, .360, .487; 47.7 ip, 19 er, 3.59 ERA). The Pears and the Outs look like twins, almost, with their stat lines. Both are doing very well, gliding toward .500 but at a pace that probably won’t get them quite there before the season is over.
.
Remember what I said about one of the most beautiful things in the EFL? That right up until their final pitcher and batter leave the game, no team is mathematically eliminated as long as they enter September with more games left to play than they are behind in the standings. Alas for the Balk: they entered September with 28 games to play, but 28.1 games behind. If the W’s go 0 – 28, and the Balk go 28 – 0, no rounding errors will save them. There will still be at least one team ahead of them. So the best they can do, mathematically, is end up 0.1 games behind the Wolverines.
.
The Balk can, in theory, catch every other team in the league. Even if the Rosebuds go 26- 0 going into their last game of the season, and are at that point 55 games ahead of the Balk, there is nothing preventing the Balk from winning 200 – (-100) (or whatever) and the Rosebuds from doing the opposite. So second place will always be in reach until they turn off the lights on September 30. But the Balk can’t catch Old Detroit no matter what.
.
So, hey, you DC fans might as well root for the Wolverines to win! It would be nice to have someone on our side.
.
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2018
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Boston Red Sox |
97 |
44 |
.688 |
— |
| Old Detroit Wolverines |
90 |
51 |
.642 |
6.5 |
| New York Yankees |
87 |
53 |
.621 |
9.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
75 |
64 |
.540 |
21 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes |
73 |
68 |
.519 |
23.8 |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
63 |
76 |
.453 |
33 |
| Baltimore Orioles |
41 |
99 |
.293 |
55.5 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Canberra Kangaroos |
78 |
61 |
.558 |
— |
| Atlanta Braves |
76 |
63 |
.547 |
1.6 |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
73 |
66 |
.525 |
4.6 |
| Washington Nationals |
69 |
71 |
.493 |
9.1 |
| New York Mets |
63 |
76 |
.453 |
14.6 |
| D.C. Balk |
61 |
78 |
.440 |
16.4 |
| Miami Marlins |
56 |
84 |
.400 |
22.1 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Cleveland Indians |
79 |
60 |
.568 |
— |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys |
74 |
65 |
.534 |
4.7 |
| Minnesota Twins |
63 |
76 |
.453 |
16 |
| Detroit Tigers |
57 |
83 |
.407 |
22.5 |
| Chicago White Sox |
56 |
84 |
.400 |
23.5 |
| Kansas City Royals |
46 |
93 |
.331 |
33 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Chicago Cubs |
82 |
57 |
.590 |
— |
| Brookland Outs |
80 |
59 |
.574 |
2.2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
79 |
62 |
.560 |
4 |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
78 |
62 |
.557 |
4.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
69 |
71 |
.493 |
13.5 |
| Cottage Cheese |
67 |
72 |
.483 |
14.8 |
| Cincinnati Reds |
59 |
81 |
.421 |
23.5 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Houston Astros |
87 |
53 |
.621 |
— |
| Oakland A’s |
84 |
57 |
.596 |
3.5 |
| Seattle Mariners |
78 |
62 |
.557 |
9 |
| Haviland Dragons |
71 |
69 |
.505 |
16.3 |
| Los Angeles Angels |
68 |
72 |
.486 |
19 |
| Kaline Drive |
66 |
74 |
.468 |
21.5 |
| Texas Rangers |
61 |
79 |
.436 |
26 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Portland Rosebuds |
89 |
50 |
.643 |
— |
| Colorado Rockies |
77 |
62 |
.554 |
12.3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
76 |
64 |
.543 |
13.8 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
75 |
64 |
.540 |
14.3 |
| San Francisco Giants |
68 |
73 |
.482 |
22.3 |
| Peshastin Pears |
65 |
74 |
.466 |
24.6 |
| San Diego Padres |
55 |
86 |
.390 |
