In the hour just before dawn, I lay in bed, troubled. Melanie is at Sweet Home running another triathlon, in the rain! Sam is driving to Colorado for his new job, in the old BMW, and had not checked in last night as I expected. Ben is in Illinois, at Navy boot camp, incommunicado. Only Nellie the dog is with me, and she is no comfort at all, what with her elderly old lady dog habits of barking incessantly at nothings, the only remedy for which is to let her sleep in our bedroom, where she spends the night smelling like a dog and making gross self-grooming noises.
And I needed comforting. Any of my family might be in peril, but probably weren’t. But I knew the Wolverines were in deep trouble, probably having lost yesterday. I also knew Tornados Jarred Kelenic and Joey Gallo had each blasted two home runs. A big Flint Hill win could cut the Oldies’ lead from 4.3 games to something in the low 3’s — conceivably to UNDER 3 games. My long, lovely season in the lead was unravelling before my eyes.
But then suddenly the room was filled with light, and a voice like unto an angel’s spake:
“Fear not!”
EFL Standings for 2021
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 102 | 46 | .691 | — | 848.2 | 567.7 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 98 | 50 | .659 | 4.7 | 823.9 | 585.2 |
| D.C. Balk | 90 | 55 | .622 | 10.5 | 830.7 | 648.4 |
| Peshastin Pears | 91 | 57 | .612 | 11.6 | 752.4 | 604.3 |
| Kaline Drive | 89 | 58 | .608 | 12.3 | 779.9 | 624.8 |
| Cottage Cheese | 81 | 66 | .552 | 20.5 | 814.7 | 749.5 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 80 | 65 | .551 | 20.8 | 767.6 | 704.3 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 79 | 68 | .539 | 22.5 | 733.2 | 676.8 |
| Haviland Dragons | 78 | 69 | .533 | 23.4 | 759.2 | 735.7 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 76 | 71 | .518 | 25.6 | 629.4 | 608.7 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 73 | 75 | .491 | 29.6 | 782.8 | 808.4 |
OLD DETROIT: L, (-1) – 3. (68 PA, .172, .221, .219; 8 ip, 3 er, 3.34 ERA). The voice was not primarily talking about the Wolverines’ performance. I knew all about the abysmal hitting, in which Austin Riley gong 2 for 5 counts as the highlight. I knew all about Walker Buehler’s 6th inning struggles, leading to 3 earned runs, vandalizing what had been a very nice pitching performance. I didn’t know newly-activated Nate Pearson had spun a near-perfect inning, nor that Andrew Kittredge had done him one better with a really perfect inning.
But in the end, the outcome was as I had feared: a loss, the second in three days, maybe for the first time since May.
FLINT HILL: L, 3 – 13. 65 PA, .311, .338, .623; 5.3 IP, 8 er, 13.58 ERA). The room filled with light because I was checking my phone. The time was 6:46 AM. The voice like unto an angel’s was an email which popped up while I was checking the time. It was from the Flint Hill front office. It said
“A little more cushion…”
and then showed the EFL standings updated to this morning. Thus, in the language of the Angels, I read
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 102 | 46 | .691 | — | 848.2 | 567.7 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 98 | 50 | .659 | 4.7 | 823.9 | 585.2 |
It was a miracle!! The Tornadoes had been sent by a power greater than any human being back to their rightful spot exactly 4.7 games behind. (Their deficit has been 4.7 games back for 4 of the last 5 days. It’s time the Flinty brass recognized the will of God.)
My heart was filled with wonder, but also doubt. How could this be? I had heard of Kelenic’s and Gallo’s homers with my own ears. Supine, I dared to question the Voice. “How (can this be)?”
The Voice emailed back:
“Problem 1: German Marquez have up 6 runs in 4 innings and TJ McFarland gave up 2 in .2.
Problem 2: Gallo is currently only 33% active” (sic)
Sick indeed!! Gallo, it turns out, wasn’t the only under-allocated player putting up heroic numbers. According to the “Current allocations” page on the website, Kelenic is also only 33% active. Their joint 5 for 8 with 4 homers end up being 1.67 for 2.67 with 1.33 homers.
Patrick Wisdom is allocated at 0%. He went 2 for 4. Tim Anderson is at 0%; he went 1 for 3 with a double and a walk. Adam Frazier’s 1 for 4 was entirely done at Granite Peaks, as was half of Josh Harrison’s 1 for 3 with a hbp. Frank Schwindel homered, of course, and he’s 100% active — but the T’s have so many OH PA, his stats are being suppressed by about 12%. I estimate the resulting batting line to be something like:
45 PA, 43 AB, 11 h, 3 2b, 2.2 hr, 1 bb, 0 hbp; .256, .267, .479
Toss in 10 strikeouts, and a sacrifice fly (which is a slightly negative event in the rc/g formula), and you get the rc/g down to the neighborhood of 3.
The fact that we can explain it, doesn’t make it less miraculous.
DC: W, 4 – (-1) 39 PA, .21, .333, .344; 13.4 ip, 5 er, 3.36 ERA) If I were DC my goal would be to finish within 10 games of first in the EFL, in first in the NL East, and with home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs (after the wild card).
* Finishing first in the NL East is sewn up tight. The Kangaroos are in second in the NL East, and trail DC by 10.5 games.
* Yesterday boosted the Balk a half-game toward the 10 gbh goal, with another half-game to go.
* The Balk are currently about 1.3 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers, who will be their first-round challenger.
Although Ian Anderson struggled (5.7 ip, 4 er), Dylan Cease did not (5 ip, 0 er). Sam Hilliard led the way at the plate: 2 for 4 with a homer and a stolen base.
PESHASTIN: “W”, 1 – 3. (31 PA, .143, .226, .214; 11.3 ip, 6 er, 4.78 ERA). Good goals for the Pears might be, in ascending order of ambition: stay ahead of the Drive, pass the Balk, get within 10 gbh of first place in the EFL, and swipe home field advantage in the NL Wild Card away from the Dodgers.
Yesterday the Pears salvaged mixed results, even though Ross Stripling was the pitching star because he got through 3 innings allowing only 1 earned run, and Ryan Zimmerma was the hitting star because he went 2 for 2 with a double.
The Pears lost ground to the Balk (0.4 games) and the Drive (0.1 games). But they gained 0.1 games on the Wolverines, and 0.4 games on the Dodgers.
KALINE: L, 2 – 2. (56 PA, .160, .250, .380; 6 ip, 1 er, 1.50 ERA). It was baaaarely a loss — 2.4 to 2.5 — which means the Wizard might be wistful about what might have been had the Drive offense driven a bit more. There were three home runs (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, and most delightfully Akil Baddoo) but Judge was the only Drive with 2 hits, while 7 had none. The pitching performance was rather pretty, since it comprised 5 relief appearances, all of which were scoreless except for Julian Merryweather’s 1 er in 1 ip.
The Wizard may still say he prefers to finish in the middle, but he’s more than 8 games ahead of the Cheese. As to his secondary goals, we can only guess. Catching the Pears and the Balk seem to be obvious and attainable — the Drive gained 0.1 on the Pears, but lost 0.4 to the Balk yesterday.
Finishing in first in the AL West is well within reach. The Drive currently lead the AL West, 2.4 games ahead of the Astros, but Houston gained an entire half-game yesterday.
Perhaps in the back of his mind the Wizard is nursing visions of finishing with 100 wins. Why not — his team only has to go 11 – 4 to reach that target.
COTTAGE: L, 1 – 5. (43 PA, .200, .233, .225; 11.3 ip, 7 er, 5.58 ERA) Randy Arozarena had a genuinely nice day at the plate: 1 for 3 with a double and a walk. That was 100% of the Cheesy extra bases yesterday, and half of the team’s walks.
Unfortunately, this leaves the Cheese looking over their shoulders, defending their goal of finishing in the pivotal 6th place boundary between the upper and lower divisions. Canberra is RIGHT behind, 0.3 games back, and Pittsburgh is within sight just 2 games out, those teams having gained a terrifying 1.1 and 0.8 games in a single day.
The Cheese may have visions of securing the second NL Wild Card slot. Taking EFL teams into account, of course, this means the Cheese would have to pass the Pears. That’s a gap of 8.9 games. Anything is possible — more so in the EFL than the rest of MLB — but it would take an even bigger miracle than the one I’ve documented from earlier this morning. But if it weren’t for the Pears, the Cheese would be in great shape, 3.7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
CANBERRA: W, 2 – (-7) (34 PA. .167, .235, .267; 15.7 ip, 2 er , 1.15 ERA) The Kangaroo offense was practically AWOL, and would have been even worse than it was if it weren’t for another Vladdy, Jr. home run. But the pitchers stepped up. Chris Flexen flexed, meaning in this case he wobbled, but didn’t break: 5.7 ip, 1 er. Miles Mikolas did a notch better: 5.7 ip, 0 er). All those great innings erased replacements and rocketed the ‘Roos up the rankings.
Swiping the pivot position from the Cheese is very do-able. Holding off the Alleghenys is also within reach. The extra half-game over the Dragons makes staying out of 9th place a lot easier. The Pears’ big lead pretty much precludes a appropriating a place in the playoffs, but with their 4-game lead over the Braves the Kangaroos are in good position to embarrass the MLB front office for their myopia: a team in second place in the true NL East standings, 10 games behind the leader, is going to beat the team MLB sends to their phony playoffs.
PITTSBURGH: W, 6 – 2. (30 PA, .269, .345, .462; 14.7 ip, 3 er, 1.84 ERA) Logan Webb (7 ip, 2 er) and Wil Crowe (5 ip, 1 er) combined with two relievers to lay down a winning pitching track. And Allegheny hitters responded with a solid, win-worthy offensive performance. Bobby Dalbec continues to outshine the guy who is SUPPOSED to be the Red Sox prize young star (Rafael Devers) with another homer yesterday.
The Alleghenys probably feel like the dog chasing a couple of varmints (the ‘Roos and the Cheese), and today the odds of catching at least one of them are much better. But the Dragons are still right behind them, and the Cascades, at 3.1 games back, are not out of the picture. The White Sox would have to collapse pretty pathetically to leave the door open for the A’s to win the AL Central, but such things have happened… so why not again, now that we know miracles can break through to become reality, at least in fantasy league terms.
HAVILAND: “L”, 9 – 6. (33 PA, .321, .394, .607; 1.7 ip, 0 er , 0.00 ERA) Ah the EFL! Where a loss can really be a win. Where it might need to be a win if you want to stay ahead of the Cascades!
We call the Wizard the Wizard for lots of good reasons, but there’s something magical about Dragons, too. Brett Gardner hit another homer yesterday to lift his September line to .298, .365, .574. His lifetime line is .257, .342, .399. His best ever season line was .251, .325, .503, in 2019, when he was 36 years old, but that line stands out like a Cascade volcanic peak in a career that began in 2008. Except for 2012, when he only had 37 plate appearances, and his rookie year when he had only 141 PA, he OPSed between .690 and .778 in 11 other seasons, including this one! In the first half of this season, Gardner OPSed only .614. In July he only managed an OPS of .540. But August saw an up-tick to .815 and the Dragonmaster pounced!
And since he was pounced on, Gardner has OPSed .940. It might be the best month of his life, at age 38.
If the Haviland Dragonmaster, whom I have called the Chiefest of Calamaties because it seemed to have pleased Smaug so much when Bilbo used that title, can turn a mere average Gardner into the hero of an epic tale, he’s either an heir to JRR Tolkien, or he’s as magical as a Wizard.
Hey, Haviland, the Cheese are only 2.9 games ahead. You have a magical owner/manager, and you have his creation, Brett Gardner. Those other teams in the way? They shouldn’t necessarily trouble you — remember, the EFL is not a zero-sum environment, so their losses don’t create troublesome wins somewhere else.
BELLINGHAM: W, 6 – 4. (48 PA, .340, .354, .532; 1.3 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA) Almost the spitting image of the Dragon line — what little you give away in offensive quality you make up for in volume. Still there was only one homer in Bellingham yesterday but of course it was by Bryan De La Cruz, whom I still think might be made up. Also, Kyle Farmer tormented Walker Buehler with two doubles in 3 AB. Brusdar Grateral hit a batter — thus his name, “Brusdar” — but otherwise he and AJ Minter delivered 1.3 perfect innings.
The Cascades are very unlikely to sink below .500 now, so you can relax about that. They are even further ahead of the Rosebuds in their race to avoid the cellar… but oddly, there’s more danger of the being in the cellar than there is of being underground, because .500 can’t move, but the Rosebuds CAN (and ARE! — see below). So don’t relax too much.
The Belles could theoretically still catch the White Sox in the AL Central, but 8.9 games is a LOT of ground to make up with only 15 games left to play. However, second place in the AL Central is still within reach — it only requires you to pass the Alleghenys, a mere 3.1 games away. And while you’re at it, why not give a real scare to the Kangaroos and the Cheese. You probably can’t catch them, but it isn’t strictly impossible, and I might be wrong about the practicality of it.
I mean, today’s theme is “Don’t Fear” but if you have nothing to fear, not even fear itself, then this whole post is useless! And that can’t be true.
PORTLAND: W 2, L (-1); 9 – 2. (36 PA, .310, .417, .621; 2.7 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). And — this is just the way it’s been lately — here’s the last place team, the only team to win two and lose minus one. But the Rosebuds are not alone! The top 5 teams in the league went 1 – 4, if you ignore Peshastin’s phony win. The bottom 5 teams went 5 – 0, if you ignore the Dragons’ phony loss. So this entire league is upside down.
The Rosebuds were just one Dylan Carlson homer away from a Happy Edgar Martinez Day! He hit two; he was supposed to only hit one.
I have been watching the Rosebuds since they started matching the Wolverines’ pace back in July. They are a little further behind now than they were then — but today they have, once again, gotten back to within 30 games.
And also note how close they are to .500. Yesterday the standings showed them at 71 – 76, 30.5 games behind the Wolverines and 23.6 games behind the Giants in the NL West. That .6 part indicated they were a little closer than 71 – 76 to the 95 – 52 Giants. It looks like they should be 24 games back but they were only 23.6, meaning the ‘Buds’ real record was 71.4 – 75.6. A .500 record would have been 73.5 – 73.5.
Today the ‘Buds are listed at 73 – 75, 29.6 behind the Wolverines and 23.4 behind the Giants. The Giants are exactly 96 – 52. This means the Rosebuds are really 72.6 – 75.4. A .500 record would be 74 – 74
In one day they went from 2.1 games under .500 to 1.4 games under .500. They sliced off 1/3 of their deficit in 1/15th of the games they had left. That’s amazing! And exciting!
And of course, just above the surface, once the Rosebuds sprout from underground, there are those Cascades. Why not go ahead and snag them, too?
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2021
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 102 | 46 | .691 | — |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 98 | 50 | .659 | 4.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 92 | 56 | .622 | 10.2 |
| Boston Red Sox | 84 | 65 | .564 | 18.7 |
| New York Yankees | 83 | 65 | .561 | 19.2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 82 | 65 | .558 | 19.7 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 47 | 100 | .320 | 54.7 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| D.C. Balk | 90 | 55 | .622 | — |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 80 | 65 | .551 | 10.3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 76 | 69 | .524 | 14.3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75 | 72 | .510 | 16.3 |
| New York Mets | 72 | 76 | .486 | 19.8 |
| Miami Marlins | 62 | 85 | .422 | 29.3 |
| Washington Nationals | 60 | 87 | .408 | 31.3 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago White Sox | 84 | 63 | .571 | — |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 79 | 68 | .539 | 4.8 |
| Bellingham Cascades | 76 | 71 | .518 | 7.9 |
| Cleveland Indians | 71 | 74 | .490 | 12 |
| Detroit Tigers | 70 | 78 | .473 | 14.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 66 | 81 | .449 | 18 |
| Minnesota Twins | 65 | 83 | .439 | 19.5 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 90 | 57 | .612 | — |
| Cottage Cheese | 81 | 66 | .552 | 8.8 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 69 | .527 | 12.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 77 | 71 | .520 | 13.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 66 | 82 | .446 | 24.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 55 | 92 | .374 | 35 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Kaline Drive | 89 | 58 | .608 | — |
| Houston Astros | 87 | 60 | .592 | 2.4 |
| Oakland A’s | 80 | 67 | .544 | 9.4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 79 | 68 | .537 | 10.4 |
| Haviland Dragons | 78 | 69 | .533 | 11.1 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 72 | 75 | .490 | 17.4 |
| Texas Rangers | 54 | 93 | .367 | 35.4 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| San Francisco Giants | 96 | 52 | .649 | — |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 94 | 54 | .635 | 2 |
| Peshastin Pears | 91 | 57 | .612 | 5.4 |
| San Diego Padres | 76 | 71 | .517 | 19.5 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 73 | 75 | .491 | 23.4 |
| Colorado Rockies | 69 | 78 | .469 | 26.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 47 | 100 | .320 | 48.5 |