Our most downtrodden teams suddenly threw off their shackles this week and rose up against their oppressors!
But the Balk apparently like being oppressors, for once, and stepped up their own game to keep everyone else in their “proper” places.
I suppose the most oppressed team in the league right now might be the Pittsburgh Alleghenys, buried deep in last place. Their pitching has been spotty, allowing 4.76 runs per game, compared to the MLB average of 4.26, but there are teams with worse pitching above .500, including two in the EFL. The issue for the Alleghenys is hitting: they are scoring only 3.26 runs per game, a full run below the MLB average, 1.34 runs below the EFL average, and worse than every team in the major leagues… except the Detroit Tigers, who are scoring only 2.91 runs per game.
So far this week the Alleghenys are pitching even worse than usual for them, allowing 6.5 runs per game. Jose Berrios chulked (2.3 ip, 6 er) and reliever Steven Wilson quadruple chulked (.7 ip, 3 er). The rest of the staff undid the damage enough to get back under replacement ERA, Tyler Anderson leading the way with 6 shutout innings.
But Allegheny bats have blossomed, scoring 9.5 runs per game — even though 1/3 of their plate appearances have been replacement hitters! Seven of their nine rostered hitters are OPSing 1.000 or better for the week. That 9.4/6.5 ratio predicts a .683 winning percentage, which (if applied to the first 50 games) would put them in first place in the EFL, and 0.2 games ahead of the Dodgers and the Yankees. Some of the luster is taken off by their MLB opponents (the White Sox) being off to a good start this week, but even so, the A’s have amassed 1.2 wins against 0.8 losses so far this week.
The Pears might be the most downtrodden team lately. At the end of Week 5 they were in 6th place with a 13-17 record on a .450 winning percentage, 7.7 games out of first. At the end of Week 8 they had fallen to 10th place, with an 18 – 30 record (going 5 – 13 in the intervening weeks), 13.2 games out with a .381 winning percentage. Some of this fall is due to a dramatic drop in subsidy from bad MLB opponents. Their 0.055 boost in adjusted winning percentage had fallen to just 0.017. But most of the plummet was due to pitching, or the lack thereof. Last week only 4 Pear pitchers appeared, producing only 16 innings of 5.63 ERA pitching. Pair Pear pitching with poor production at the plate (3.1 rc/g) and you get your recipe for Pear puree.
Two Pears have already combined to pitch 8 shutout innings for Peshastin this week. Led by superstar Juan Soto (3 for 7 with two doubles, a homer, and two walks, 1.698 OPS) and fresh-from-the-owner’s-doghouse Ryan Mountcastle (5 for 9 with a double and a homer, 1.556 OPS), the Pear offense is hitting at a 5.4 rc/g pace. The resulting 10.9 rs / 5.5 ra ratio is good for a predicted raw winning percentage of .796. Combined with an Oakland A’s .329 predicted winning percentage, the Pears have put together an awesome .889 adjusted winning percentage so far this week! That’s a 1.8 – 0.2 record for the first two games.
Of our 11 teams, 7 are receiving adjusted winning percentage subsidies from our system. These seven teams have faced MLB opposition while it was playing sub-.500 ball. These are NOT oppressed teams, by and large (other than the Pears, who have minimal subsidies from poorly-performing MLB foes).
The Flint Hill Tornados spent several weeks as the EFL team most disadvantaged by their MLB matchups. As of the end of week 8, however, that disadvantage had shrunk to a mere 0.008 adjusted winning percentage points. As of today, it has disappeared entirely, replaced by a 0.003 boost to the Tornado winning percentage, thanks the Cubs being below .500 on the week so far.
The Tornados have been replaced on the “oppressed by the system” roster by the Alleghenys, whom we have already discussed. What had been a 0.013 boost to their record at the end of Week 8 has now become a 0.004 drag on their record — another smidgen of oppression against which the Alleghenys are rising.
The Salem Seraphim have recently been the most oppressed by our system, bearing a 0.097 penalty as of the end of Week 8. But the Seraphim do not take injustice lying down! They are doing something about it so far this week: Aaron Ashby and Chris Bassitt both pitched 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run apiece. The resulting 2.14 ERA (including 2 replacement innings) came at a perfect time: while the Seraphim offense fluttered to a below-replacement 2.6 rc/g.
It should have been higher — after all, the Arch-Seraph Shohei Ohtani went 2 for 3 with 2 homers, a walk, and a hbp for a celestial 3.467 OPS and a supernatural 185.2 rc/g game! But the second-best Seraph hitter — Hanser Alberto — was sent to purgatory for some reason. Sitting there on the bench, his 2 for 4 with a homer (1.750 OPS, 33.9 rc/g) were wasted. The rest of the team batted .133, .173, .233 over 60 AB to sink the Seraphic offense.
Even so, Salem scored 5.2 runs and allowed only 4.6 over the first two games, predicting a .559 winning percentage. And then…
Lo!! A Miracle!!
Salem’s MLB foe is the Washington Nationals who, after being routed 13-5 yesterday, have a predicted winning percentage of just .272. This ballooned the Salem adjusted winning percentage to .772, and slashed the accumulated injustice done to the Seraphim to only 0.086.
Similar to Salem, the Haviland Dragons have long labored under the weight of additional losses created by our new system. As of end of Week 8, the Dragons were draggin’ around a 0.092 penalty, virtually a twin to the poor Seraphim. I am sure Haviland took consolation in having the best pitching in the EFL (and fourth best in all of the major leagues), surrendering only 3.29 runs per game. This week that season average has crept up to 3.32, but this was offset by increasing the runs scored per game figure from 4.75 to 4.82. So the Dragons have scored 12.3 runs in the first two game, while surrendering only 8.8, for a predicted winning percentage of .660. Combine that with the Padres’ predicted win percentage of .200 (being outscored 10 – 5), and Haviland’s adjusted winning percentage soars on Dragon wings to .886.
Dragon heroes so far this week include Pablo Lopez (6 ip, 0 er) and Gio Urshela (4 for 8 with a double and two homers: 1.875 OPS, 37.4 rc/g).
This may not sound like the Dragons are oppressed, but they are still draggin’ the second-biggest extra burden for tough MLB opposition at 0.079 points of winning percentage.
Our final oppressed team is the Old Detroit Wolverines. I admit it: the oppression is only nominal considering the Wolverines won last year, are in close second place this year, and are only suffering a 0.020 disadvantage in adjusted winning percentage (down from 0.027 at the end of week 8). But should we feel nothing for the mildest oppression? Isn’t injustice anywhere injustice everywhere?
Not to worry. The Wolverines are diligently working to eliminate oppression in Old Detroit. True, our ace — Walker Buehler — got beaten up a little last night by the lowly Pirates, coughing up 4 earned runs in 6 innings. And James Kaprielian isn’t yet showing proper gratitude for the W’s giving him a contract while he was still injured (4 er in 4.3 ip). But Marcus Stroman began the healing process with 7 shutout innings. And various other pitchers covered 9.7 innings at the cost of only 3 earned runs to keep the team ERA down to 3.67.
With Byron Buxton being given every other day off (for reasons I can’t figure out, other than just general fragility?) and Carlos Correa also under performing, the Wolverines still padded their lead in league offense by running up 7.3 rc/g as a team to start Week 9. Much-maligned (by Wolverine management) Jurickson Profar leads the way with 30.0 rc/g (5 for 9 with a homer, 1.444 OPS). Austin Riley began the long, slow climb out of the offensive sinkhole where he’d fallen with a 3 for 8 with a double and two homers (1.625 OPS, 20.4 rc/g).
I recognize all this is pales compared to the Alleghenys’ 9.5 rc/g. But the Alleghenys are not in second place for EFL offense, so the 7.3 rc/g does increase the W’s lead in that category.
Before we move on to the Balk, I want to show proper respect for what the Drive are doing this week. At the end of Week 8, the Tornados just barely — by an eyelash, by the merest zephyr– nudged the Balk out of their preferred place, 6th in the standings, at the pivot point in an 11-team league. The Drive have acknowledged their unfortunate dependence on extreme good fortune. They had the help of a 0.150 boost from expected to adjusted winning percentage, thanks to the uncommon cooperation they have received from MLB opponents. But it was still not enough to defend that cherished 6th-place slot in the standings.
In the first two days of Week 9, the Drive not only regained 6th place — they did it while letting go of a big chunk of their dependence on the kindness of strangers. Drive pitchers have already completed 24 innings this week — enough for more than 3 games! — while allowing only 6 earned runs. Taking into account a less-than-100% allocation for Alex Cobb, the team boasts an ERA of 2.14. On the offensive side, even with 22 replacement at bats, the Drive have created a Wolverine-equivalent 7.4 rc/g. Brad Miller is creating infinite runs/game (3.500 OPS), having gone 2 for 2 with a homer. Omar Narvaez’ 4 for 7 with a double, a triple, and a walk is worth 41.1 rc/g (1.625 OPS).
Kaline’s raw winning percentage is in orbit: .906. But the Drive face the Mets, who so far have run up an 18-9 margin against their opponents, worth an .800 expected winning percentage. Do the Drive complain? No, they accept their reduced adjusted winning percentage (.706 — still awesome) with grace. At least, as far as I can tell. They are making things right with the universe by accepting, and dealing with, a reduction in their lucky privilege.
I realize I’ve barely mentioned the Tornados, and have said nothing about the Cascades. What’s notable about them?
Probably many things, but here are a few:
- Both teams are VERY close to breaking even on the MLB opponents. The Tornados have that .003 boost. The Cascades’ boost is only .001. Neither team is oppressing anyone, nor us
- Marcel Ozuna leads the Bellingham offense, going 3 for 8 with a double and two homers (1.635 OPS, 20.3 rc/g). Or is it Rafael Ortega (4 for 8 with a homer, a walk, and a stolen base (1.431 OPS, 29.4 rc/g)?
- Tanner Scott got the Dragons off on the wrong foot for pitching this week, going 1 inning with 3 earned runs. Fortunately the team got 6 replacement innings to reduce the team ERA to 7.50.
I want to conclude with some words about the DC Balk. There is something amazing, dogged, indomitable about Balkans these days. The Balk are not the highest scoring team in the league. They’re third in that category, behind the Wolverines (300) by a fair amount, and behind the Seraphim (262.3) by a teeny amount (261.8) — an amount so small I doubt any Seraphim can dance on it.
The Balk are not the best pitching team in the league. The Dragons (166 runs allowedI) lead in that category by 30 runs.
The Balk don’t have the highest raw winning percentage. Their .641 trails the W’s (.678) and the Dragons (.676) by a significant margin.
The Balk do rely on some subsidy from poor MLB competition, but it isn’t very much: only 0.027. Still — they have been in either first place or second at the end of every week so far: 6 times in first, twice in second. Since week 3, their week-ending margin over second place has been 0.5 games ahead, -0.4 (in second place), 0.5, 0.9, 1.0, and 0.5. Right now the margin is…. 0.5 games.
Somehow the Balk have almost exactly matched the pace of their closest pursuers. It’s uncanny. This week, with a rampaging swarm of Wolverines trying to overtake them, the Balk have matched them stride for stride. Pitching? 1.58 ERA so far, no replacement innings, Dylan Cease leading with 7 shutout innings. Hitting? A solid 6.2 rc/g, Xander Bogaerts leading with 4 hits in 8 AB, 3 of them doubles (1.375 OPS, 23.8 rc/g).
They are pesky. They are clever. They are impossible to catch, maybe. Are they oppressing the rest of us? Well, yeah. If anyone is, it’s them.
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