We started this series on Sunday, hoping to finish it then, but grandsons and other priorities — mostly grandsons, frankly — interfered, so we posted Part 1 on Sunday covering the top three teams, Part II yesterday (although only labeled so you could find it today [Tuesday]) covering the 4th-place through 7th-place teams. Today is Part III, reflecting games through Tuesday evening, and covering the bottom four teams. If grandsons allow..
The Balk can’t break away, the Seraphim rise very close to the top, the Wolverines seem to recover their footing (but don’t, really), the Dragons get some justice just as they go through a rough patch, the Tornados have something happen to them, the Kangaroos definitely join the party, the Drive undergo an intervention at the hands of the Wizard’s life-long favorite team, the Cascades are about to cross an important line, the Rosebuds are the new most victimized team, the Pears have something happen to them, the Alleghenys demonstrate they are a good team looking for a break or two.
Even though we will be focusing on other teams today, I did want to note that the Seraphim have re-closed the gap with the Balk, and have a winning percentage only 0.001 behind the Balk. Actually, the gap is more like 0.0003 than 0.001. Salem trails DC by 0.02 games – possibly the closest the race for first base has ever been in the EFL at any point in the season. We’ll watch this barn burn over the next few update.
Bellingham: When I started this series it was clear the Cascades were in danger of being overtaken by at least on of The Three P’s who’ve dominated the bottom rungs of the pennant race for several weeks. Yesterday the Cascades’ hold on 8th place had nearly evaporated, down to a “cushion” of 0.1 games in the standings over the Rosebuds. Today the Rosebuds have clearly overtaken 8th place, and the Cascades’ 0.1 game lead is now over the Pears for 9th place.
Monday gave us a glimpse into the challenges facing the Cascades. It was a short schedule, to be sure, only 18 of the 30 MLB teams taking the field. But that’s still 60% of a full schedule. Even with the Twins doubleheaderw opening game this morning in the updated stats (the first game of a double header), the Cascades had only 19 AB yesterday, and zero innings pitched. They are laden with 18 replacement innings and twelve replacement plate appearances. Bellinghams’ actual hitters are only OPSing .689 this week. But that’s better than their pitchers, who swooned all the way to an 8.47 ERA — before being mellowed by replacement pitchers’ 6.00 ERAs. Unsung Rafael Ortega leads the team this week with a 1.083 OPS, but veteran pitcher Anthony DeSclafani surrendered 7 earned runs in only 2.7 innings.
Meanwhile, the Rosebuds, the Pears — and even, to some degree, the Alleghenys — have suddenly blossomed.
Portland: The Rosebuds recovered Monday evening from some pitching struggles earlier in the week. Kevin Gausman twirled 7 scoreless innings, and Jackson Kowar returned to big league action with 3.3 more scoreless innings, lowering the team’s ERA for the week to 3.45. Nick Senzel continued the tradition of Rosebuds pricking Old Detroit with ex-Wolverines doing very well by OPSing 1.355 for the week so far, going 8 for 13 with a double and a walk, and adding three stolen bases. Portland’s raw winning percentage is all the way up to .494, not that far from sibling Tornado’s .517 raw winning percentages. If their luck ever evens out, the Johnson Brothers will have a fine private pennant race this season.
Peshastin: Earlier this week I was concerned about the Pears going into a swoon and ruining their season. But Pears live pitching has been great this week, registering an ERA of 3.21. But the FIP number in our team spreadsheets (i don’t remember where I got the formula we are using, so it is unreliable) paints a darker 4.77 runs per game picture. With 15.3 replacement innings, the Pears’ team ERA fits pretty well with its FIP projection. And Pears hitting has come around a bit, too. The Pears are pulling out of their dive dangerously close to the rocks at the bottom of our standings, but quick enough to almost catch up with the free falling Cascades.
Pittsburgh: If it weren’t for Jose Berrios’ 2.7 IP, 8 ER allowed performance this week, the Allegheny’s team ERA would be 3.03. It’s 4.62 with Barrios’ basura (“garbage” in Spanish). The Alleghenys are creating 5.6 runs per game even with Luis Robert’s 2 for 16 so far this week. As of Tuesday morning Portland had scored the third most runs per game in the EFL this week. They are not a bad team. They are laden with a 0.055 detriment from our Head to Head format, second only to Haviland (.059) and a notch better than the Rosebuds (0.052).