The Next Pandemic

Take a look at this table:

Batters	Prosp Rk	Current OPS
Jurickson Profar	1	.416
Gavin Lux	2	.000
Eloy Jimenez	4	.728
Lewis Brinson	12	.143
Rafael Devers	13	.543
Trea Turner	13	.536
Luis Urias	17	.000
Austin Hedges	18	.182
Josh Bell	25	.579
Tm Average	29.9	.470
Austin Riley	30	.529
Willson Contreras	57	.963
Isan Diaz	58	.444
Will Smith	59	.864
Evan White	62	.390
Kyle Schwarber	77	.740

These are the 15 Wolverine hitters who were at one time top 100 prospects in either Baseball Prospectus or Fangraphs, or both.  The central column shows their highest prospect rating.  The right column shows their OPS in 2020 as of Sunday morning, August 9.

I made an X,Y scattergram chart in Excel  with this data which I can’t figure out how to show you.  It shows that the higher my players were rated as prospects, generally the worse they are hitting right now. This is not just because Lux and Urias are not on any active MLB rosters.  

It’s clearly because the new NOGUD-20 virus has broken out among the Wolverine hitters, and has laid almost all of them low. 

This virus has only two markers:

• The victim has to have arrived in major league ball accompanied by banners and parades of pundits punditing in glowing terms about his greatness.
• The victim has to be in an inexplicable and inescapable complete batting meltdown.  The more inexplicable his fate the more inescapable it must be. 

To help you see the gravity of the NOGUD-20 outbreak in Old Detroit, I’ve included in my chart an entry for the average Wolverine who arrived to top-100 fanfare.  This hypothetical average Wolverine achieved a top 30 ranking, and is currently OPSing .470. 

Note that a replacement playing in the EFL OPSes .602.  So the average NOGUD-20-stricken Wolverine batter is batting 22% worse than replacement. He might be able to crack a long season A-league roster.  

But, you might say, don’t the Wolverines have 18 hitters?  What about the other three?

Here they are:

Daniel Vogelbach:  never top 100, but he was an American League All-Star last summer.  He is OPSing .458.  Being an All-Star is apparently hype enough to make one vulnerable to NOGUD-20. 

Abraham Toro: never top 100, never an MLB All-Star.  He is OPSing .611.  He may not have NOGUD-20… yet. 

Shogo Akiyama:  Never top 100 because he was in Japan. He is OPSing .652.  I have some good evidence he has not caught NOGUD-20. Here it is:

Saturday the Wolverines on the chart above, including Vogelbach (but not Toro, who was idle, or Akiyama),  combined to go 1 for 31 with a walk.  Trea Turner got the hit  — but then was immediately caught stealing. Vogey was the one who walked, but Evan White happened to be the next batter, and immediately grounded into a double play. 

You can’t get NOGUD0-20 worse than they have it, when the virus immediately erases your scarce successes.

But Shogo Akiyama hit a triple and walked in 4 plate appearances!  That is so unlike the rest of the W’s, he has clearly been spared the NOGUD-20 virus… so far.  This is because he came from outside the US, and is playing for the Cincinnati Reds.  He has only had three games where he could have had contact with any of his fellow Wolverines — a series against the Cubs . Schwarber and Contreras  aren’t symptomatic,  and may therefor be less contagious.

But it’s only a matter of time until the NOGUD-20 virus finds its way to Shogo Akiyama.  

Oh if only we had a Commissioner who could order the Wolverines into quarantine until their hitting prowess returns.  Think of the other teams and their players and families!  Think of poor Shogo Akiyama!!  Oh the humanity!! Have mercy on us!