Salary Cap! Price of a Win! Forecasts! Why The Wolverines Will Lose… Again!

FIRST ITEM:  NEW SALARY CAP

Back on March 9 I posted a note here predicting a POSSIBLE 2016 salary cap of $94,500,000, which would have been a $7,000,000 increase.   This note was hedged all about with warnings that you should not rely on that number since it was generated by Fangraphs on estimates made by unknown methods, etc.  In fact I strictly forbade you from reading that post I was so concerned it might lead someone into trouble.

Well, it turns out I was right to be cautious.  Because the data is in, and available via Baseball Prospectus.  And the median MLB team Opening Day salary for 2016 is  $122,992,896.

Our rule set our salary cap at 75% of the MLB median.  75% of   $122,992,896  is  $92,244,672 .  Rounding that off to the nearest $250,000 leaves our new salary cap at $92,250,000.

Since our old salary cap was $87,500,000,  the net result is an increase of only $4,750,000.  Thus the Kangaroos, who spent every last dime they had on Saturday, now have $4,750,000 in the bank.  They can’t do anything with it for April since rosters are frozen. But they’ll have that to spend at the end of April.

Actually, because we give ourselves a $500,000 boost in the cap every month of the season, the ‘Roos will have $5,250,000 to spend at the end of April.  At the other end of the economic spectrum, the immensely wealthy DC Balk will have $24,750,00 in their coffers.

Here is a list of the room each team will have under the cap for the end of April, unofficially:

DC:              $ 24,750,000

OD:                 24,500,000

PA:                   17,250,000

PR:                   16,750,000

FH:                  15,500,000

HD:                 15,000,000

CC:                  14,750,000

KD:                   9,000,000

PP:                    5,500,000

CK:                   5,250,000

 

SECOND ITEM:  PRICE OF A WIN

You can see the salary cap data for yourself at this link — maybe only if you are a Baseball Prospectus subscriber.  If you scroll back to 2015, you can see some really interesting data about how much it cost MLB teams for each win above replacement player (WARP), as BP calculates these things:

Pos	Count	Tot  WARP	Avg WARP	Tot Salary	Avg Sal	$/WARP	Pct of Sal	Pct of WARP	Efficiency
1B	61	69.71	1.14	$311,616,466	$5,108,467	$4,469,958	6.40%	7.63%	1.23%
2B	72	59.43	0.83	$178,368,567	$2,477,341	$3,001,253	3.66%	6.50%	2.84%
3B	55	91.03	1.66	$188,297,567	$3,423,592	$2,068,632	3.87%	9.96%	6.09%
C	101	53.27	0.53	$179,861,806	$1,780,810	$3,376,577	3.70%	5.83%	2.13%
CF	55	87.41	1.59	$175,760,052	$3,195,637	$2,010,842	3.61%	9.57%	5.96%
DH	17	15.42	0.91	$133,914,667	$7,877,333	$8,685,541	2.75%	1.69%	-1.06%
LF	87	65.34	0.75	$289,100,674	$3,322,996	$4,424,463	5.94%	7.15%	1.21%
PH	65	-4.33	-0.07	$64,938,967	$999,061	-$14,993,888	1.33%	-0.47%	-1.81%
RF	63	88.39	1.4	$326,214,720	$5,178,011	$3,690,629	6.70%	9.67%	2.97%
RP	559	104.08	0.19	$1,107,876,464	$1,981,890	$10,644,271	22.76%	11.39%	-11.37%
SP	333	219.06	0.66	$1,740,659,974	$5,227,207	$7,945,912	35.76%	23.98%	-11.79%
SS	55	64.83	1.18	$170,534,018	$3,100,619	$2,630,549	3.50%	7.10%	3.59%
	1523	913.64	0.60	$4,867,143,942	$43,672,964	$5,327,201	0.9998	1	-0.0001
per team	50.8	30.5	0.0	$162,238,131

 

I don’t know whether this table will be intelligible the way our website displays it.  But what it’s telling us includes these fun facts:

1.  The average MLB team paid 50.8 players to be on its major league roster during the year.
2. The average MLB team paid all those players a total of $162,238,131.  This is a lot higher than the median we used last year to calculate our salary cap (about $116,700,000). I think this is due to  two factors – the mean was higher than the median because of a few very profligate teams; and by the end of the year they were paying 40-man rosters and had churned through 10 or more other players, all of whose salaries are counted in this.
3. The average MLB team produced 30.5 Wins Above Replacement.  If you work backward from that, you can calculate Baseball Prospectus’ definition of a replacement-level team as one which wins 50.5 games a year.
4. The average MLB paid its players $5,327,201 per win above replacement.
5.  Buying wins above replacement in the bullpen is very expensive — $10,644,271 for MLB teams, twice the average cost.
6. Wins above replacement are cheapest at 3b and CF, where MLB teams in 2015 got them for just over $2,000,000 each.
7. Buying wins above replacement at PH is impossible!  Teams spent $14,993,888 for each LOSS below replacement on pinch hitters!  (I’m not sure that makes any sense.  But I guess it is clear that pinch hitters in 2015 performed at below-replacement levels.)

 

THIRD ITEM:  EFL PROJECTIONS FOR 2016

BP’s WARP projections are the most pessimistic ones I know. Here is what they say about how we’ll finish this year. (Caveat — the MLB teams’ projections are not updated from a month ago.)

Team	H	P	Tot	W	L
Cubs	28	17	45	97	65
Wolverines	26	17	43	95	67
Dodgers	26	16	43	94	68
Pears	29	13	42	94	69
Indians	22	15	37	92	70
Rosebuds	23	14	38	89	73
Rays	26	13	39	91	71
Mets	23	16	39	90	72
Dragons	25	14	38	90	72
Kangaroos	28	9	37	89	73
Red Sox	22	14	36	88	74
Astros	20	13	33	88	74
Giants	25	11	36	87	75
Nationals	19	15	34	87	75
Blue Jays	30	9	39	86	76
Yankees	18	16	34	85	77
Alleghenys	24	10	34	85	77
Tornados	20	13	33	85	77
Mariners	21	12	33	84	78
Pirates	23	10	34	83	79
Cardinals	20	13	33	82	80
White Sox	15	13	28	82	80
Cheese	19	11	30	82	80
Drive	20	10	29	81	81
Rangers	19	10	28	79	83
Tigers	15	10	25	78	84
Diamondbacks	17	11	27	78	84
Twins	13	10	23	78	84
Brewers	16	9	25	78	84
Marlins	16	9	24	76	86
Royals	15	8	23	76	86
Padres	13	10	23	76	86
Angels	19	8	27	75	87
Athletics	13	10	22	75	87
Reds	14	8	23	74	88
Rockies	13	8	21	74	88
Orioles	14	10	24	73	89
Braves	11	6	17	68	94
Balk	8	6	14	66	96
Phillies	5	7	11	63	99

 

Fangraphs’ Projects are more optimistic for most of us:

	Fangraphs	Projections
Team	H	P	Tot	W	L
Wolverines	32	26	58	105	57
Rosebuds	30	22	52	99	63
Cubs	30	22	52	100	62
Dodgers	27	25	52	100	62
Mets	24	23	47	94	68
Dragons	27	19	46	94	68
Kangaroos	32	14	46	94	68
Cheese	26	19	45	92	70
Alleghenys	29	16	45	92	70
Nationals	22	22	43	91	71
Pears	23	21	43	91	71
Astros	24	19	43	90	72
Giants	25	17	43	90	72
Red Sox	23	19	42	90	72
Indians	21	21	42	90	72
Pirates	24	17	41	89	73
Cardinals	22	19	41	89	73
Blue Jays	28	13	41	89	73
Tornados	21	20	41	88	74
Yankees	20	20	40	87	75
Drive	21	16	39	87	75
Mariners	20	16	36	84	78
Rays	20	16	36	84	78
Orioles	23	13	35	83	79
White Sox	15	20	35	83	79
Angels	23	12	35	83	79
Tigers	22	13	35	82	80
Marlins	19	15	34	82	80
Twins	19	14	33	81	81
Diamondbacks	18	15	33	81	81
Rangers	17	16	32	80	82
Royals	20	12	32	80	82
Athletics	17	15	31	79	83
Reds	17	12	29	76	86
Padres	12	16	28	76	86
Brewers	15	13	28	75	87
Rockies	13	13	26	74	88
Braves	12	10	21	69	93
Phillies	9	11	20	67	95
Balk	9	8	17	65	97

 

Probably that’s the most realistic projection.  At least I hope so, for the W’s sake.  Because ZIPs has a different picture in mind:

 

		ZIPs Projections
Team	H	P	Tot	W	L
Wolverines	29	27	57	104	58
Rosebuds	31	24	56	103	59
Kangaroos	36	14	50	101	61
Alleghenys	32	21	53	101	61
Cheese	30	21	51	99	63
Pears	27	23	50	98	64
Tornados	28	22	49	97	65
Cubs	28	17	45	97	65
Dragons	28	20	49	96	66
Dodgers	26	16	43	94	68
Rays	23	19	42	93	69
Indians	22	15	37	92	70
Mets	23	16	39	90	72
Red Sox	22	14	36	88	74
Astros	20	13	33	88	74
Drive	24	16	40	88	74
Giants	25	11	36	87	75
Nationals	19	15	34	87	75
Blue Jays	30	9	39	86	76
Yankees	18	16	34	85	77
Mariners	21	12	33	84	78
Pirates	23	10	34	83	79
Cardinals	20	13	33	82	80
White Sox	15	13	28	82	80
Rangers	19	10	28	79	83
Tigers	15	10	25	78	84
Diamondbacks	17	11	27	78	84
Twins	13	10	23	78	84
Brewers	16	9	25	78	84
Marlins	21	16	37	89	73
Royals	15	8	23	76	86
Padres	13	10	23	76	86
Angels	19	8	27	75	87
Athletics	13	10	22	75	87
Reds	14	8	23	74	88
Rockies	13	8	21	74	88
Orioles	14	10	24	73	89
Balk	16	9	25	73	89
Braves	11	6	17	68	94
Phillies	5	7	11	63	99

 

Note that ZIPs doesn’t take into account playing time.  So the ZIPs projections assume all your players are full-time players.  This is not going to be the case.

According to ZIPs, the Rosebuds were projected in first place before they traded Wil Myers for Brad Kaminsky!  But they did make $3,000,000 on the deal, so maybe they can buy their way back into first!

Except the Wolverines have $7,000,000 more than the Rosebuds, so they’d still have to be called favorites, right? Assuming they can spend money as effectively as Rosebuds?

 

FOURTH ITEM: Why The Rosebuds Are The Favorites to Win in 2016. 

Back on March 3, right after the Rookie Draft, I published some projections.  Using BP projections, I had the Wolverines winning 96 games.  Now I have them winning 95.

I had the Rosebuds winning 84.  Now BP says they’ll win 89.

I spent money and went backward.  The Rosebuds spend money and gained.

 

Well, what about under Fangraphs? The Wolverines were at 101 wins. Now they’re at 105.  Progress!

The Rosebuds were at 93.  Now they’re at 99.  More progress!

I didn’t publish ZIPs projections on March 3. But the Wolverines were at 105 wins then by ZIPs.  Now they’re at 104.  The Rosebuds were down in the low 90’s by ZIPs.  Now they are at 103.

Anyway you look at it, the Rosebuds apparently know better how to make good use of their money.

 

FIFTH ITEM:  BY FAVORITES I DON’T MEAN FAVORITE.

There are too many teams clustered near the top of the standings at or above the best MLB teams (a problem we’ll have to fix next offseason).  So when I say the Rosebuds are favorites, I don’t mean they have a more than 50% chance of the being the winners at the end of the season. They just have a greater probability of success than anyone else.  I’d say they have something like a 20%  chance of winning.  The Wolverines are not far behind — maybe 15%.  The Drive’s chances in this ten-team league are in the single digits, but above 0.  The Balk… well, it would be totally inappropriate for them to win as an expansion team.  There’s a pretty good chance the Balk will observe decorum this year.