Over the last seven days, Seattle Mariner pitchers completed 63 innings. They allowed 56 runs, 50 of them earned, for a 7.14 ERA. Hey, it’s better than EFL replacement (which is 7.5 ERA)! If you have ever wonder what the pitching would look like on a team made up of EFL’s replacement players, the recent Seattle Mariners is a pretty close approximation.
Over those same seven days, Mariners batters hit .318, .374, .518, scoring 58 runs — creating 8.29 runs per game. Notice: as bad as the pitching has been, the M’s have outscored their foes over the last seven games. If Seattle was in the EFL, their record would have been rounded up to 4 – 3. But since they are in MLB, and a little unlucky in how they’ve distributed their runs scored and runs allowed, they only went 3 – 4.
So if you’ve ever wondered whether a team could survive with nearly replacement-level pitching, the answer is “yes” if you define “survive” as “win half their games.” All they have to do is maintain an OPS of .900 or so.
EFL Standings for 2016
| EFL | ||||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB | RS | RA |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 35 | 21 | .629 | — | 326.9 | 250.7 |
| Portland Rosebuds | 34 | 24 | .593 | 1.8 | 290.2 | 232.3 |
| Haviland Dragons | 33 | 22 | .591 | 2.2 | 261.6 | 220.8 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 32 | 24 | .570 | 3.3 | 267.7 | 230.3 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 30 | 24 | .560 | 4 | 270.4 | 239.6 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 28 | 28 | .507 | 6.9 | 253.2 | 250.9 |
| Peshastin Pears | 28 | 30 | .490 | 7.8 | 243.2 | 248.1 |
| Cottage Cheese | 24 | 30 | .445 | 10.2 | 242.8 | 268.3 |
| Kaline Drive | 22 | 33 | .394 | 13.1 | 251.1 | 312.6 |
| D.C. Balk | 15 | 41 | .264 | 20.5 | 199.4 | 334.3 |
Old Detroit: W 2, L 1; 23-16. In June the W’s have a raw Baseball Prospectus (ignoring allocations) .338, .386, .567 batting line, and a 6.32 team ERA, much like the M’s. The W’s have scored 28.8 EFL runs and allowed 25.9. They are about 2 – 2 in June, again a lot like the M’s. Dae-Ho Lee’s .563, .563, .750 line is only the second best on the W’s while it is the best on the M’s. I say all this to console Wolverine fans fretting over the sorry state of W’s pitching. Although it would help if Wolverine management had activated Jurickson Profar (.429, .467, .786) for a little more than 0%. It’s time to talk to the Cardinals about giving Kolten Wong that much-needed assignment to AAA.
Portland: W, 22 – 3. Portland matched Old Detroit’s offense in the first four days of June: .322, .389,.552. Their pitching looks… a little different: 41. 3 ip, 16 er, for a 3.48 ERA. In the first four June days, Portland moved steadily from 5th place to 2d place. Do you wonder what a 22 – 3 day looks like? Your team gets 58 PA, goes 23 for 52 with 6 doubles, 2 triples, a homer, 4 walks and 2 HBP — (.442, .500, .692) with 8 hitters at or above 1.000 OPS. It helps to have your pitchers doing ok (19.3 ip, 9 er — an ERA of 4.2-ish) and replacing some replacement innings.
Haviland: W, 8 – 4. For a bit it looked like the Dragons would assume the role of the Wolverines’ main threats — before they got buried by Rosebuds. Ha! Dragons buried by Rosebuds! There’s an image for a sappy childrens’ book. In the Hobbit movie they tried to bury Smaug, The original Chiefest of Calamaties, in molten gold, to no avail. They should have tried Rosebuds. Or maybe so-so hitting (.223 .304, .403) and so-so pitching (40 ip, 19 er, 4.27 ERA). When Matt Joyce and Hank Conger are you offensive leaders (each going 3 for 6 with a double, a homer and a walk) something’s not optimal. When all five pitchers who’ve started games in MLB sport ERA’s between 4.15 and 6.00, that’s a consistency you’d like to break up.
Canberra: L, 4 – 7. Ever since the Jackie Bradley Jr. scandal dumped them suddenly out of first place, the ‘Roos have been reeling. They’ve got the Wolverines’ pitching this month (6.34 ERA in 32.7 innings) but not their hitting (.267, .358, .393). Bryce Harper… you know, it probably doesn’t seem fair to him that he’s the first one people point to when his team has a rough stretch. But with great power comes great responsibility: he’s only batting .143, .205, .143 in June. That’s worse than Adeiny Hechavarria. It’s worse than everyone on the ‘Roos except for Michael Conforto (.071, .067, .071 in 14 plate appearances) and Christian Bethancourt (0 for 1 this month).
Pittsburgh: W (-1), L 1; (-2) – 1. Another stellar ERA — and by “stellar” I mean “sky-high”: 6.75 (32 ip, 24 er) unmitigated by the offense (.220, .274, .367). It makes you wonder if offense is up this year in baseball. So I did a little research: the average MLB team is scoring 4.38 runs per game. Last year the average MLB team scored 4.25. Our defense ratings calculator assumes the average MLB team scores 4.28 runs.
Flint Hill: W 1, L 2; 16 – 21. By EFL standards, Flint Hills’ 39.7 ip, 22 er allowed (4.99 ERA) looks pretty good! It would look even better if Jess Hahn hadn’t uncorked a Royal Chulk (0.7 ip, 7 er – even Ryan has to agree that’s a Royal)! Take that away and the Tornado ERA would plummet to about 3.50. Put that with a solid .276, .354, .465 batting line and the Tornados might be … well, still in 5th place. But the Alleghenys would be their closest neighbors, rather than the Pears.
Peshastin: L, 2 – 3. The Pears have been slowly pulling themselves out of the pit they dug themselves in the first quarter of the season. And June has been golden, so far: .266, .353, .469 at the plate — good so far — and 26 ip 5 er from the rubber… which is fantastic! Trea Turner debuted for the Pears Saturday, and went 3 for 3 with a double and a walk. The Pears are smarter than the Wolverines, even if only barely: they have Turner active at 50%, which is 50% more than Profar. But then, the Wolverines have Wong, on his way out, while the Pears have Cozart having his career season (.375, .444, .875 in June!).
Cottage: W 1, L 1; 18 – 13. The Cheese are also rising — .312, .358, 565 in June, with 32 ip, 14 er , 3.94 ERA — not as fast as the Pears, but still… If I recall correctly, the Cheese are on record as not considering the Pears worthy opponents this year, so I’m sure they aren’t paying any attention to Peshastin. And why should they? They showed their trading acumen by acquiring Wil Myers at the beginning of June, who now leads the Cheesy offense (.444, .421, .944); and their drafting acumen by snaring Michael Fulmer and his 7.7 ip, 0 er June so far.
Kaline: “W”, 3 – 5. The Drive didn’t do as well in their trading. They picked up Joe Kelly, who leads Kaline in ERA: 27.00, for his 2.3 ip, 7 er triple chulk. They drafted Johnny Giavotella, whose .231, .231, .231 batting line is surely less than the Wizard was wishing for. Fortunately, a stalwart has stepped forward to lead the offense. No, not Cepedes, or Bryant, or Fowler, or Saunders. They’re all doing well, from .782 OPS (Fowler) to .962 in 13 PA (Saunders) and 1.000 in 5 PA (Cespedes). No, the slugger we’re talking about is Jonathan Villar (6 for 16 with 3 homers and a walk: .375, .389, .938).
DC: W, 2- 1. The Balk lead the league in at least one good category: consistency. Take a look at the latest Standings History Chart . Notice the team that has the straightest line on the chart since May 18. Yes, it’s the Balk! This uncanny straight-line-approach to things is way harder to do than it looks. The Balk are doing it in June by batting .200, .330, .341, and pitching 28 ip with only 11 er– one of the best lines in the league, and enough innings to avoid all but 0.4 innings of replacement pitching. And do I detect a little upward slope in the June Balk line? Yes, I do — a slope that will carry them to .500 in a mere 118 games — only 12 games after the season is over.
| AL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Old Detroit Wolverines | 35 | 21 | .629 | — |
| Boston Red Sox | 33 | 23 | .589 | 2.2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 23 | .574 | 3.2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 27 | .526 | 5.7 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes | 28 | 28 | .507 | 6.9 |
| New York Yankees | 26 | 29 | .473 | 8.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 24 | 30 | .444 | 10.2 |
| NL East | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Washington Nationals | 33 | 23 | .589 | — |
| New York Mets | 31 | 23 | .574 | 1 |
| Canberra Kangaroos | 32 | 24 | .570 | 1.1 |
| Miami Marlins | 29 | 27 | .518 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 27 | 29 | .482 | 6 |
| Atlanta Braves | 16 | 39 | .291 | 16.5 |
| D.C. Balk | 15 | 41 | .264 | 18.2 |
| AL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys | 30 | 24 | .560 | — |
| Cleveland Indians | 30 | 24 | .556 | 0.2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 30 | 25 | .545 | 0.7 |
| Chicago White Sox | 29 | 27 | .518 | 2.2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 27 | 28 | .491 | 3.7 |
| Minnesota Twins | 16 | 39 | .291 | 14.7 |
| NL Central | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Chicago Cubs | 39 | 15 | .722 | — |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 30 | 25 | .545 | 9.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 27 | .518 | 11 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 26 | 30 | .464 | 14 |
| Cottage Cheese | 24 | 30 | .445 | 15 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 21 | 35 | .375 | 19 |
| AL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| Texas Rangers | 33 | 22 | .600 | — |
| Haviland Dragons | 33 | 22 | .591 | 0.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 31 | 24 | .564 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 27 | 30 | .474 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 25 | 30 | .455 | 8 |
| Oakland A’s | 25 | 31 | .446 | 8.5 |
| Kaline Drive | 22 | 33 | .394 | 11.3 |
| NL West | ||||
| TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | PCT. | GB |
| San Francisco Giants | 35 | 23 | .603 | — |
| Portland Rosebuds | 34 | 24 | .593 | 0.6 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 27 | .526 | 4.5 |
| Peshastin Pears | 28 | 30 | .490 | 6.6 |
| Colorado Rockies | 24 | 31 | .436 | 9.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 24 | 34 | .414 | 11 |
| San Diego Padres | 23 | 34 | .404 | 11.5 |