Here are this week’s standings, for reference:
The extreme results we were getting earlier in the week tempered slightly by week’s ends, as one would expect as the sample got a little larger. We can expect each week, by itself, to generate similarly wild results. However, the league standings should produce a generally more moderate picture of our teams as we pile one week’s randomness atop previous weeks’ randomness.
I think if we go team by team we can find things in the data to encourage owners who may be disappointed by how the first week went. And perhaps a few owners can be steered away from smugness.
Old Detroit: (W 6, L 0; 56 – 19) v. Seattle Mariners (16-27)
(220 AB, .318, .402, .582 — Happy Edgar Martinez Week! 51.3 ip, 19 er, 3.33 ERA)
A week is too short to get a clear picture of the future, The week’s MOST extreme result — the Wolverines’ .961 winning percentage… it probably doesn’t mean all that much. After all, Carlos Correa hasn’t started hitting yet (only OPSing .724) , and Eloy Jimenez (.675) and Will Smith (.580) are off to even worse starts. So maybe they could do better than 56 runs in 6 games. And Chris Paddox’ outing against the Dodgers was awfully unlucky, his 2.07 FIP turning into 6.75 ERA…
[Ahem!]
What do you want?
[The problem isn’t that .961 is an extremely low winning percentage. Perhaps you could point out something that suggests it might decline to more normal levels. ]
But you just said we should look for data than might encourage EFL owners. I’m trying to encourage an EFL owner.
[Whom were you planning to target for the “steering a few owners away from smugness?” part, if not our rather full-of-himself defending champion?]
What do you want me to say? “The W’s won’t always get to face the M’s?” But the Mariners only padded the Wolverine winning percentage by .065 points. There are other teams who got bigger boosts from their weak opponents.
[Look, if you aren’t going to do the job right, we could always ask Jamie to take your spot. Again.]
No, no, anything but that!! Let’s see, worries for the Wolverines… They haven’t had any major injuries yet. Their luck is sure to run out… they have freaking Byron “Busted” Buxton, for crying out loud. Jurickson Profar can’t keep OPSing 1.241, and even if he could, Padres management apparently hates him. Scott Effross — the guy the W’s found at the bottom of the reliever barrell — isn’t always going to generate a -3.18 FIP and a 0.00 ERA.
DC: (W 4, L 2; 30 – 21) v. Texas Rangers (28-30)
(270 AB, .241, .321, .433; 52.3 ip, 19 er, 3.27 ERA)
So am I supposed to encourage the Balk (Danny Jansen is OPSing 2.196!!) or correct for impending smugness (Danny Jansen is on the IL!).
Encourage? (Tyler Megill has a 0 ERA after 10.3 innings this season.).
Correct for smugness? (Luke Weaver lasted 2/3 of an inning and surrendered an earned run before he went on the IL.).
Encourage? (The Balk’s .683 raw winning percentage is the second highest in the league, and needed almost no boost from the Rangers to top .700.)
Correct for smugness? (The Balk face the White Sox in the coming week. The White Sox had the best raw winning percentage of anyone in MLB last week.)
Haviland: (W 4, L 2; 29 – 32) v. DET (21 – 34)
(212 AB, .222, .324, .373; 39.7 ip, 4.76 ERA)
JT Chargois, newly acquired, finished 2/3 of an inning before hitting the IL. He got one strikeout and another out without allowing a baserunner, so his Baseball Prospectus FIP is currently frozen in amber at -199,997.18. Not -199,997.19. That would be ridiculous. Jesus Luzardo rose from the IL to pitch 5 strong innings, also earning a negative FIP… a bit smaller than Chargois’ (-1.38), so apparently not granted him in exchange for his pitching arm.
The Dragons’ leading hitter is, of course, Jonah Heim (3 for 7 with a homer and two walks, 1.413 OPS). The Dragons’ trailing hitter (among those on the active roster) is, of course, Jarred Kelenic (1 for 15 with 2 walks, .243 OPS). I wouldn’t be too surprised to see those two trade places by the end of the season. Kyle Schwarber led off the season with a home run (4.000 OPS). Since then he’s gone 1 for 21 with 4 walks (.049, .049,.200) to just about match Kelenic (.249 OPS). If only that added up to a 4.249 OPS!
The Dragons soared this week thanks in large part to their opponents, the Detroit Tigers, scoring 21 and allowing 34, including a 10 – 1 shellacking at the hands of the White Sox. This week the Giants roll into town, coming off the second-best week in the non-EFL segment of MLB.
Portland: (W 4, L 2; 27 – 35) v. KC Royals 19 – 34.
(170 AB, .224, .299, .499; 46.7 ip, 25 er, 4.82 ERA)
Tyler Mahle, German Marquez, and Dylan Bundy combined for 21 innings and 2 earned runs allowed to anchor the Rosebuds’ opening week campaign. Rhys Hoskins (.937 OPS), Dylan Carlson (.889 OPS) and Sheldon Neuse (also .880 OPS) led the way offensively, with a nice boost from six AB by Nick Solak who homered and walked twice toward a 333, .500, .833 batting line.
That other Nick (Senzel) struggled, going 2 for 17 with a double for a .294 OPS. Jackson Kowar also had a rough week: 3.3 ip, 7 er.
But those soft spots were covered nicely by soft opposition. The Rosebuds got the biggest boost from their opponents of anyone in the league — .283 percentage points’ worth — because the Royals were getting outscored 19 to 34. They may get another soft opponent next week in the Detroit Tigers… but I think there’s something dangerous about Detroit this year, so I wouldn’t count on another easy week.
Peshastin: (W 2, L 4; 21 – 37) v. MIL 18 – 26.
(192 PA, .182, .274, .344; 28.3 ip, 16 er, 5.08 ERA).
Jazz Chisholm (1.179 OPS), Joey Bart (1.016 OPS) and Juan Soto (.920) led the Pears’ offense this week, Jazzz and Juan each clouting 2 homers and Joey adding one. Unfortunately, much of the rest of the roster lacked luster — although Victor Robles’ 0 for 15 with a HBP seems noteworthy in its own right, the emptiest .062 OPS you might ever see.
On the pitching side, there was some fine work done by relievers, especially Kendall Graveman (4.7 scoreless innings). But the starting staff ranged from the competent (Trevor Rogers, 2 er in 5 ip) to the disastrous (Huascar Ynoa, 3 ip, 5 er) to the tragic (Luis Patino: 0.7 ip, 1 er, 1 trip to the IL).
Fortunately for the Pears, they made that mess while the Brewers were in town making their own mess, being outscored 18 – 26. Things may get even easier for Peshastin next week, especially if Colorado comes down from its unexpectedly high level performace this week.
Canberra: (W 2, L 4; 50 – 39) v. SF Giants (27-16)
(199 AB, .296, .383, .528; 37 ip, 22 er, 5.35 ERA)
Solid hitting was good enough to overcome mediocre pitching — but not good enought to ALSO overcome the red-hot Giants. I say the Giants were red-hot… that’s 5/6ths untrue. For 5 of their 6 games, the Giants matched their opponents 14 – 14. But on Tuesday they clobbered the Padres 13 – 2.
Had the Giants not had that one glorious day — had they finished the week scoring 16 – 16, say — the Kangaroos would have finished the week with a .622 winning percentage, going 4 -2 and winding up a mere 2 games out of first. But thanks to that one day, those 11 extra runs the Padres coughed up, the ‘Roos are 2-4 and 3.6 games out. No one suffered more from our new format than the Kangaroos did.
Are there consolations? Well, they’re done with the Giants, for one thing — Haviland has to deal with them this coming week. Four ‘Roos are OPSing over 1.000: Vladdy (1.373), Austin Meadows (1.160), Brandon Nimmo (1.137), and Mitch Garver (1.033). On the other hand, none of the starting pitchers has turned in a gem yet. And the Dodgers are coming to town. After that… it gets easier.
Salem: (2 – 4; 23 -22) LAD Dodgers (25 – 17)
(196 AB, .219, .307, .623; 57.3 ip, 20 er, 3.14 ERA)
Very solid pitching, including 10 shutout innings from the combination of Chris Bassitt (6 ip) and Chris Archer (4 ip), led the Seraphim to a solid showing in terms of rs/ra. Indeed, it was almost as if the good Seraph pitchers were pitching against their own lackluster hitters. Alec Bohm didn’t lack luster (.600, .667, 1.000) — he just lacked plate appearances (getting only 9). Francisco Mejia got 5 hits (including a homer) on his way to an unusual .417 .385, .667 slash line.
Sean Manaea followed up his incomplete game no-hitter with another solid outing, ending the week at 13 ip, 1.38 ERA. Taijuan Walker threw 2 perfect innings before he went on the IL — another sad story of the kid plaguing several EFL teams. a
Adding to Seraphic laments: Salem opened the season agains the Dodgers, who outscored their foes 25 – 17. Salem’s just-above-.500 raw performance was slashed to a .338 winning percentage. Salem gets a break — presumably — by facing the more-modestly talented Milwaukee Brewers. Watch out for Keston Hiura, though…
Pittsburgh: (W 2, L 4; 17 – 18) v. CHC Cubs (22-16)
(192 AB, .167, .249, .302; 46.8 ip, 19 er, 2.62 ERA )
The Alleghenys sort of survived Jose Berrios’ explosive first week where he went 5.3 innings while allowing 7 earned runs. And they just about lasted through a week where their hitters hit almost precisely at replacement level. Wil Crowe was a pending hero — 7 shutout innings to stop the bleeding from the mound. Luis Robert was the sign of better days to come, going 7 for20 with a double and 2 homers for a 1.081 OPS.
All that got obscured, however, by an unexpectedly strong debut by the 2022 Cubs, who amassed a .654 raw winning percentage. That shattered the Alleghenys’ tenuous perch near .500, and they slid all the way to .319.
Kansas City comes to town this coming week. Maybe the A’s can come back a little and get a better break from a relatively soft opponent.
Bellingham Cascades (W 2, L 4; 24 – 39) v. NYY Yankees (21- 20)
(213 AB, .239, .331, .364; 28.8 ip, 17 er, 5.31 ERA)
The Cascades caught a huge break: the legendary, mighty Yankees came to town, but stumbled to a record just barely above .500. This will not happen very often with the Bronx Bombers. The Cascades, on the other hand, didn’t put themselves into position to make much of their good fortune. The roster is short on active players, so every hand needs to be on deck; but some weren’t, and too few played to their best.
The pitching had some bright spots. Brusdar Graterol shut batters down scoreless for his 3.7 innings. Five other relievers limited opposition to 5 total earned runs in 13.3 innings. DJ LeMaheiu led the offense, gpoing 5 for 17 with two doubles, a homer and 2 walks for a nice 1.017 OPS.
Next week the Cubs come to town.
Flint Hill: (W 1, L 5; 27 – 33) v. CHW White Sox (28 -1 4)
(190 AB, .242, .359, .394; 24.7 IP, 11 ER, 4.01 ERA)
The Tornados had two major obstacles in their path this last week: lack of pitching, and the White Sox on a hot start.
Only 6 Tornados appeared on the mound during the week. They combined for only 24.7 innings, leaving 17.3 innings for replacements. Those who did show up did a creditable job, coming in at 4.01 ERA; but with the replacements thrown in, the team’s ERA for the week ballooned to 4.83.
Brandons led the Tornado offense, Drury turning his 9 PA into a 1.111 OPS and Marsh producing 1.086 OPS across 17 PA. They were joined by Willson Contreras, also hitting 1.086 OPS in 17 PA. Each of them contributed one hjome run.
As bravely as these Tornados strove. the White Hot Sox were too much for them. The Mariners look like easier competition, offering a path away from the cellar.
Kaline: (W 1, L 5; 20 – 39) v. COL Rockies 25 -16
(172 AB, .192, .326, .331; 54 IP, 34 ER, 5.68 ERA)
Kaline management is notably generous, as several of us with expanded baseball card collections can attest. But that generosity spilled out of bounds this last week from Drive pitchers, who gave away a profligate 34 earned runs in 54 innings! This put a LOT of pressure on the Drive offense, which was not tuned up to the task.
Brad Miller did his part — leading the Drive offense with a 1.003 OPS featurin 2 homers in 16 AB. Andres Gimenz was his back-up, going 4 for 14 with a homer for a .929 OPS.
Perhaps it wouldn’t have been so bad had Colorado not started the season playing out of its mind versus the Dodgers, and keeping it up against Texas. Perhaps they demoralized the Rangers, who will face the Drive next.