Complete post: Nearing the first gate

(I tried to update this as I finished each section, but after 4 such updates, WordPress stopped cooperating. So here’s the entire thing in one piece. Sorry for the partly duplicated posts.) 

Week 4 will bring our April to a tardy close on Wednesday, May 4. This is actually not too bad considering how MLB and the MLBPA messed up our calendar.  We will only be 4/27th of the way through the season — only 14.8%.  It will still be early, with lots of room to hope we can fix our teams’ flaws — and maybe our high-flying rivals can come back to Earth.

April always seems like a testing ground.  Sure, April wins count the same as September wins.  But they don’t MEAN as much.

But when we pass through the gate from April to May, it seems to me, the tone shifts.  Exuberant over-achievers revert to form.  We begin to discern whether the veteran’s slump is a dip in the road, or the end of it. Anything your team isn’t fixing by May 1 (or May 4) will be much harder to fix afterward.  Holes dug in April are generally still shallow, and there are 5 months left to climb out of them.  Holes still being dug by the end of May are likely a lot deeper, and will (presumably) take twice as long to correct, with the season already feeling like it is leaking away.  

Holes still being dug by the end of June are almost certainly graves. 

So… what trends, good, bad, or fanciful, can we discern now that April is over in the outside world, and nearly over in the EFL?

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DC: W 2, L 0. (DC: 11 – 5; SDP 12 – 15) (109 AB, .229, .364, .431; 21 ip, 7 er, 3.00 ERA). 

Successful leadership requires confidence among the led that the leader can be counted on.  I know my confidence in the Balk is sky high, largely because of how tidy they are, and how consistent they’ve been.  See that pitching line: 21 ip, 7 er? That’s exactly the number of innings the Balk will need to avoid replacement innings after game 3.  Sure, we’ve only had two games so far, but the Balk is already ready in case there’s a wrinkle in the rotation, or a setback today: they have their game 3 pitching in the books already. 

Next week this “stay ahead of the game” strategy will really help the Balk.  So far I’ve counted Thursday and Friday as one game, since Thursday is usually a light day and we have 7 days to amass our 6 games’ worth of stats.  But next week we begin a stretch of 6-day weeks, and we’ll just have to get our pitching done with one less day to do it.  The Balk are already playing at that level. 

As they have all season.  I don’t recall them ever being lower than 2d place.  They’ve finished two straight weeks in first, a stretch interrupted for only 1 day.  The league’s third best offense is built on Ryan McMahon (1.400 OPS) and Myles Straw (1.433) so far this week, with other more traditional offensive pillars ready to step in when they fade.  Having the league’s best pitching staff, and the third best offense, usually paves a smooth path to the pennant.  The Balk are on that path right now.

 

OD: W 1, L 1   (OD: 11 – 6; WAS: 19 – 16) (113 AB, .292, .322, .398;  12.3 ip, 4 er, 2.92 ERA)

From inside the Wolverine front office, Old Detroit is not an orderly enterprise. Our big sluggers can’t run the bases without hurting themselves. Even a home run trot is fraught. Our pitching strategy in large part has come to rely on drafting injured pitchers (Manning, Kaprielian, Lidolo) and hoping they get better soon and (still) be good.  We do this despite the fact that our first-round rookie pick pitcher from last year (Nate Pearson) has been injured 95% of the time since we drafted him, and this year’s rookie prize, Matt Manning, came off the IL, pitched a couple of times, and went back on it.  I imagine the Balk players are always ready, fit and prepared, sitting quietly on the bench awaiting their turns. 

(Ed: Kaprielian debuted for the W’s today.  2 ip, 4 er.  Yay.) 

That’s not the vibe in Old Detroit!  I actually get nervous watching Byron Buxton walk to his seat on the bench after scoring a run. “Everybody clear the dugout — no feet to trip on, no helmets on the floor.  And Byron, sit down in the first open seat, and quit waving your arms around and giving high-fives.”  The Balk are run by a calm, competent librarian.  The Wolverines are … herded by a frazzled, distracted old guy who needs to hire a dugout mom (of any gender).

Somehow the W’s have the EFL’s best offense, and its fourth-best pitching.  If my team of china figurines can hold together for the season, we should at least give the Drive something to think about. 

P.S.:  I was looking forward to the Wolverines’ head-to-head versus the lowly Washington Nationals. Except the Nats clobbered the Giants 14 – 4 on Friday.  So this week they are the .585 winning-percentage Nationals, apparently playoff material.  At least Josh Bell is having a good time lately in Washington.  

 

Salem: W 2, L 0 (SS: 9 – 7; TEX: 8 – 10). (99 AB, .212, .266, .343; 20.7 ip, 7 er, 3.05 ERA)

Where does Salem fall on the spectrum between the Wolverines and the Balk?  Close to the Balk. Very close.  Yet still critically flawed. 

Look at that pitching line.  Exactly like the Balk.  Except missing one itty-bitty third of an inning.  Couldn’t one of their 4 starters get just one more out?  Taijuan Walker tossed 5 brilliant innings in his first game back from the IL. He shouldn’t have had to go out there again for the 6th.  Robbie Ray had a rough outing, but got through 5 innings with just 3 earned runs. It was wise not to make him take the mound in the 5th.  Chris Archer only threw 4 innings, allowing a single earned run.  But here’s the goat, in my book: Sean Manaea: 6.7 ip, 3 er. Come on, Sean. All that stands between the Seraphim and the Balk’s order and precision is that last out you couldn’t get.  Oh, and get a haircut.

 

Haviland: W 1, L 1  (HD: 10 – 9 v. MIL, 20 – 2). (97 AB, .186, .262, .351; 23.7 ip, 12 er, 4.56 ERA)

Ouch!  Those Brewers are dangerous.  Over the first three weeks their 76-69 rs/ra predicted a .548 winning percentage. But in their first two games this week they’ve outscored the Cubs 20 – 2. Haviland is doing ok in the abstract. But against a team with a predicted winning percentage of .990, it’s amazing they finagled an official win.  

If only… if only the Dragons could have started with a dozen or so scoreless innings like they did the previous two weeks.  How great would THAT have been: allow no earned runs and go for a 1.000 raw winning percentage, which would reduce the Brewers’ .990 predicted winning percentage to 0.000%. Alas. The Dragon staff returned to mere humanity. 

Well, actually, Dylan Coleman went much further, uncorking a sextuple chulk (0.7 ip. 4 er). Otherwise the Dragons went 23 ip with only 8 er, pretty much the same as the Balk and the Seraphim.  But take heart, Dylan: yours wasn’t the worst chulk of the Haviland season.  Spencer Strider broke up Week 3’s Haviland shutout by coughing up 3 earned runs on 0.0 innings pitched on April 23 — a medium-large infinite chulk.  Both the Braves and the Dragons are an understanding, forgiving bunch.  Strider has pitched 3.7 innings yesterday without giving up any runs.  You may still have a future in the big leagues, Dylan Coleman.

 

Kaline: W 2, L 0.  (KD: 10 – 14 v. SEA: 8 – 13) (89 AB, .258, .305, .404;  18.0 ip, 13 er, 6.50 ERA)

Seattle is dangerous about the same way Milwaukee is: good, but unpredictable. The M’s are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak (perhaps to be broken today, as long as Jorge Soler doesn’t get a chance to hit his 3rd homer of the day).  The M’s gave the D an opening to pile up some wins, but the two teams’ results so far are not that dissimilar. With the M’s winning today, the Drive will need some good results not to slip backward in the standings. 

The Drive offense was, surprisingly (to me, at least), led by Andres Gimenez (4 for 8, with a double and a homer, for a 1.500 OPS). His sidekicks were the only slightly less surprising (to me) Andy Ibanez (4 for 8 with a walk, 1.056 OPS)  and Omar Narvaez (2 for 5 with a double). 

 

Bellingham: W 0, L 2. (BC: 6 – 15; DET: 7 – 13). (107 AB, .215, .232, .355; 13 ip,. 6 er, 4.15 ERA)

The other day I razzed Corey Seager for his disappointing performance for the Cascades.  Seager answered, finally, this week:  12 AB, 4 hits, 3 homers, for a nice 1.417 OPS.  That was almost the only good news about the Bellingham offense so far this week. 

Six Cascade pitchers combined for 11 2/3 innings with one earned run. Dakota Hudson did half of that himself ( 6 ip, 0 er). But then the team sent Trevor Richards to the mound, who got 4 outs but surrendered 5 earned runs to undo a lot of what everyone else had acheived. 

 

Peshastin: W 2,  L 0.  (PP: 15 – 1;  CWS: 7- 10)   (92 AB,  .315, .385, .522;  20 ip, 1 er, 0.45 ERA) 

If the Balk set the standard for pitching (21 ip, 7 er), the Pears blew right past it to start Week 4. Nate Eovaldi (7 ip, 0 er),, Freddy Peralta (6 ip, 0 er) and Trevor Rogers (6 ip, 1 er) sure seem like a lot of good pitching out on the mound for a team owner who complained so bitterly last night about all his injured pitchers!  

And this week the Pears also have the hitting!  Joey Bart (4 AB, 3 h, 1 hr) led the way with a 2.250 OPS, joined by thee others at a 1.000 or better (Victor Robles 1.485, the oft-maligned Ryan Mountcastle 1.125, and Jazz Chisholm, Jr. 1.000). 

The result: the Pears were THE dominant team in MLB for the first three days / 2 games of the week. Milwaukee? Pikers with their 20 – 2, .990. The Pears 15 – 1, .996  would beat the Brewers over 71% of the time.

 

Portland:  W:  0, L 2. (PR: 6 – 11; LAD: 6 – 6). (138 AB, .210, .242, .399;  30.3 ip, 17 er, 5.04 ERA).  

Judging by Rosebud management’s comments at the draft last night, Eric Lauer is the star of the Rosebuds. Well, he did pitch 7 strong innings (1 earned run) already this week. He’s completed 23.3 innings, at a cost of only 5 earned runs, for a 1.93 ERA.  That’s pretty good. Probably because of what he learned while he was a Wolverine. 

But, alas, it isn’t enough. the rest of the staff includes three pitchers with ERAs of 9.00 this week, including Dylan Bundy’s 6 ip, 6 er, and Joan Adon’s 4 ip, 4 er. And with lackluster hitting (despite Jason Vosler’s 2 homers for a 2.300 OPS, and Sheldon Neuse’s homer and a triple for a 1.681 OPS), there is no way the Rosebuds can handle the Dodgers, which might be the best MLB team I’ve seen.  Well, maybe… the Dodgers played at only a .500 pace so far this week (although they are beating the Tigers pretty solidly right now.

 

Canberra:  W 1, L 1. (CK: 11 – 3, COL: 15 – 14) (138 AB, .254, .316, .377;  26.7 ip, 4 er, 1.35 ERA) 

The Kangaroos aren’t the Pears, of course; no one is likely to match 20 ip, 1 er, now that the Dragons have left off doing that.  But most of us would love to have the 6.7 ip, 3 er that you would need to move from the Pears to the Kangaroos’ line.  Kangaroo starters were pretty good (Flexen, Detmers and Dunning combining for 19.3 ip, 4 earned runs.  But the key this time was relievers, five of whom combined for 7 ip, 0 er.

On the offensive side, He Seong Kim (6 for 12 with 3 double and a homer, 1.500 OPS) and Kyle Tucker (8 for 13, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 1.571 OPS) led the way over the last two games. 

I expect the Captain Kangaroo is celebrating Julio Rodriguez’s first home run, hit today in a Mariners win. But he may also be ruing the fact that it won’t count for Canberra, since he’s not a Kangaroo until Thursday.

Also — this is the week the Kangaroos play the Rockies.  I hope Ryan finds time to head over to Coors Field and watch his fantasy team play his hometown team.  I mean, the team from the town he’s living in now. s

 

Flint Hill: W 0, L 2.  (FH: 5 – 10;  BOS, 4 – 4.). (103 AB, .175, .261, .282; 20.7 ip, 5 er, 2.18 ERA)

Lots of good pitching, with Joe Musgrove and, less predictably, Mitch Keller combining for 13 ip, 2 er.  Mookie Betts, wanting to seal his memory with Tornado fans, went 3 for 7 with a home run and a walk (1.357 OPS), and Brandon Drury added 4 for 13 with two doubles and a homer (1.042). Ok, Joey Gallo went 2 for 5 with a walk.  The top three went 9 for 25… but after that, the rest of the Tornados went 9 for 78.  So even a flat Bosox team slapped 2 losses on the Tornados. 

It won’t help that Phil Bickford just surrendered a home run to the ancient Miguel Cabrera, on the next pitch after the Dodgers announcers finished telling a story about Cabrera hitting a home run after telling James McCann to “watch this.”

Just three more games against the Dodgers, Tornado fans, then you don’t have to face them again.

 

Pittsburgh:  W 0, L 2. (PA: 3 – 9; SFG: 13 – 17) (64 AB , .187, .224, .266;  24.3 ip, 11 er, 4.07 ERA)

I just realized results from today’s completed games are sneaking into the stat lines I am putting up in between the last parentheses above, which I am drawing from Baseball Prospectus.  I don’t think I could go back and fix that, and I don’t have time anyway… Sorry about this.

Also sorry about Pittsburgh’s start. With only 64 AB (67 PA — only 2 walks and HBP, and possibly including some Sunday stats) the Alleghenys just don’t have enough healthy active player getting playing time — from their spreadsheet, it appears they had to use 21 replacement ABs. The pitching is a little better at the moment, with no replacement innings yet.

Nor does it help that Mitch Haniger, in his best Buxton impression, went back on the IL one game after he’d been activated from the IL.  It probably stings a little more that Haniger was creating infinite runs per game in his brief time with the team this week — having gone 1 for 1, no one had gotten him out.  (The spreadsheet reported a “divide by zero” error for Haniger.  When I added a .000001 to the denominator of the formula, it reported Haniger was producing 1,010,000 runs per game.  It’s a good thing he went down, I guess: if any offense ever starts producing 1,010,000 runs per game, it will be the death of the sport.  (The 2,000,000th run in major league history was just scored last year.) 

Thanks for taking one for the sport, Pittsburgh!

 

 

(I’ll add to this post later.). Ok, I’m done now.