I’m writing a brief update today (Sunday, May 15) for two reasons:
- To inform you that the internet at my daughter’s house is acting up, and goes for hours without working. Which is why I didn’t do the promised update of the standings yesterday. I could use my phone to do the updates, but it would take some major set-up on the phone to do it right. I could also use my phone as an internet hot spot, once I figure out how to do that. However, this morning (Sunday) the house internet is working well, so I thought I’d try to squeeze in an update. Let’s hope the internet is still working on Tuesday morning.
- To inform you that the top two teams in our league have also been malfunctioning lately, so eight of the nine other teams gained on the leaders so far for the week, even some teams who have not been performing all that well themselves.
Here are our standings as of this morning:
Old Detroit and DC both show as 1 – 3 on the week. Actually, the Wolverines are 1.5 – 2.5 while the Balk are 0.9 and 3.1, which explains how the W’s erased their half-game deficit when this week began last Wednesday morning. But the last time I updated the standings, on Friday, the Balk had already slipped to their present 0.1 game deficit, and have been held it steady over the last two days.
What accounts for this sad scene atop our standings? For the Wolverines, the key is Friday’s pitching, when “ace” Walker Buehler surrendered 5 earned runs in 5 innings. And his young understudy Josiah Gray followed suit, going 6 innings with 6 earned runs allowed. 11 innings of 9.00 ERA all in one day can ruin anyone’s week. Also contributing: banishment to the major league IL handed out to Joey Wendle (who had just stepped into the starting shortstop role replacing the previously-injured Carlos Correa, and gone 2 for 2 with a homer, which apparently was more than his body could stand — ) and Chris Paddack (who is probably out for the rest of the season). Byron Buxton has been out of the lineup more than he’s been in, but that pattern forced OD management to station Josh Bell in the OF half the time, badly corroding Wolverine team defense.
The Balk also got disastrous pitching, with a quintuple chulk from reliever Jose Alvarado (1 ip, 5 er), and a sextuple chulk from starting pitcher Tylor Megill (1 ip, 6 er). 11 er in 2 ip is worse than the W’s 11 er in 11 ip, obviously. But the Balk largely made up for it by getting 6 brilliant innings from Zach Thompson (0 er, 1 hit, albeit 3 walks and only 3 so). Plus they had hitting stars: Bryce Harper went 9 for 15 with 4 doubles, 3 homers, and 4 walks for a towering 2.117 OPS, and Danny Jansen sprang from the IL with a homer, a walk, and a hbp in 4 plate appearances (2.750 OPS). So, while the top two teams are sprawling on the ground at the moment, having trouble getting to their feet, it’s not like they’re not still dangerous.
The Dragons benefit most from the leaders’ stumbles — and their own good fortune in this week’s opponent. The Texas Rangers have been humiliated so far this week, scoring 9 runs but surrendering 27. And Haviland was ready for them. EXTRA ready. So ready that they had deactivated Dauri Moreta to 0% … just in time to avoid his infinite Royal Chulk (0 ip, 5 er). The Dragons are consuming a hefty 17.3 innings of replacement pitching, but their non-Moreta actual pitching (12.3 ip, 4 er) takes a big chunk out of the 6.00 ERA the replacements produced. With 5 hitters OPSing over 1.000 (sluggers Aaron Judge and Daniel Vogelbach and the less-obvious Brandon Lowe, Jeremy Pena, and Brendan Rogers), the team is producing 6.8 runs per game with only a trace (2 ab) of replacement hitting. As a result, the Dragons have slashed 2.9 games off their distance from first place, in only 4 games. At that rate they could be in first when Week 7 starts on Tuesday morning.
Salem’s Seraphim moved 1.9 games closer to the leaders, a more stately advance befitting heavenly beings. I guess. They banished Steven Matz to the bench for his past misdeeds, so they missed out on his solid 6.7 ip, 3 er outing. But they didn’t care, because that 4.18 ERA would have marred the team’s current 2.78 weekly ERA, highlighted by Taijuan Walker (7 ip, 0 er) and Shohei Ohtani (6 ip, 1 er). A sluggish offense (4.0 rc.g) in which Alex Verdugo was the only one to sneak just over the 1.000 OPS line (1.095 — although Trea Turner wasn’t too far off a .925) deprived the Seraphs from matching the Dragons’ rush toward the leaders.
Kaline ended week 5 having clearly joined the scrum at the top of the standings, 16 – 14, 5.6 games out of first but only a half game behind the Seraphim. At that point the Drive were the team most clearly benefitting from poor performance by their MLB opponents. The Drive’s raw winning percentage was .327, but their adjusted winning percentage .521 for a 15.6 – 14.4 record that showed as 16 – 14. That .194 boost in winning percentage was almost 4 times as big as the second-biggest boost (to the Pears, .395 to .450) and 26 times as big as third biggest boos (to the Alleghenys, from .295 to .302). And it was infinitely bigger than anyone else, since all 8 other teams had adjusted records WORSE than predicted by their raw RS/RA.
Perhaps inspired by the Balk, who as of today have evened their predicted and adjusted winning percentages, the Drive have decided to reduce their dependence on subsidies. They’ve done a great job: their subsidy from weak opponents is down to only .135, thanks to their match-up with a suddenly-resurgent Red Sox team (who have outscored their opponents 21 – 9 so far this week). But honesty is not free, you know, and moving toward squaring their accounts leave the Drive showing an 0 – 4 record this week, which costs the Drive 0.4 games in the standings. The pain might have been reduced had new Drive Glenn Otto not chulked (4 ip, 8er) or had injuries and demotions not left them needing 19 replacement ABs.
The Pears were once the models of moderation in balancing expected and adjusted winning percentages. They backslid a bit last week (to a .055 subsidy), but this week have turned back toward the golden mean — and were still able to gain 0.9 games on the leaders so far. The Pears only have about half the innings they need, but their hitters are doing nicely this week, led by — you guessed it — Juan Soto at 1.429 OPS. –
Canberra has, for most of the season, been the team most damaged by strong opposition. After Week 3, the ‘Roos’ adjusted winning percentage was .204 points below their predicted level. They whittled away at that deficit the following two weeks, getting it down to .114 by the beginning of this week last Wednesday. Today it’s down all the way to .063, as the Kangaroos’ sad .270 raw percentage this week dwarfs the once-resplendant White Sox pathetic 14 – 27, .212 raw performance. This is the first time since at least Week 3 that the ‘Roos predicted win percentage for the season has dipped below .500, but their current adjusted season winning percentage (.416) is the highest it’s been all season. So far, the ‘Roos have gained 1.4 games on first place in the EFL. Kangaroo outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Kyle Tucker led the way with near-twin OPSes (Nimmo: 7 for 14 with 2 doubles with 2 walks; Tucker: 5 for 15 with 3 doubles, a homer, ad four walks). I remember Ryan crowing about snagging Tucker in the 2019 rookie draft. I hadn’t paid much attention to Tucker, but Ryan is being proven right about him.
[Ed. Are you trying to jinx Tucker?] [I have two All-Star level OFs injured, plus my All-Star ss and his great-find-just-drafted backup, and one of my prize 2022 rookie-draft pitchers on the IL right now. That’s something like 5 Kyle Tuckers on the IL. And you’re asking me if I’m trying to jinx someone? Where were you when all my guys were getting hexed?]
The Tornados are also whittling away at their matchup-induced handicap. After week 3 they were -.130 on the transition from expected to adjusted winning percentage. Now they have it down to .035, even though their opponents this week are the Oakland Athletics, who have scored one more run than allowed this week. Tanner Scott pitched an alarming infinite ERA outing this week, but demonstrated that infinities come in different sizes. Scott’s 0 IP cost only 1 earned run, doing much less damage than Dauri Moneta’s 5-earned run infinite chulk. Ex-Wolverine Willson Contreras leads the Tornado offense this week, going 2 for 9 with a homer and two walks (.72 OPS). This was enough to cut 0.6 games from the leaders’ leads.
The Cascades have gained a spot in the standings , now sitting in 9th place, having gained 1.9 games on first place. Despite carrying 9.7 replacement innings, and Brusdar Graterol’s bruising 2 ip, 3 er work, the team’s weekly ERA is only 3.02, thanks to Dakota Hudson’s 5 scoreless innings, plus seven relievers combining for 11.3 shutout innings. Luis Barrera has lit up an otherwise dim Cascade offense with his 3 for 7 with a homer and a walk, leading the way with a 1.357 OPS. Poor Alex Kirilloff got sent to AAA this week, immediately after going 2 for 4 with a walk, giving him the team’s second-best OPS at 1.100. It can be brutal in Bellingam, I guess.
The Rosebuds slid into 10th place, despite moving 1.2 games closer to first place. Rosebud’s team ERA (4.89) is not outstanding, but it’s better than replacement which isn’t true of everyone in the EFL. Rosebud stud starter Eric Lauer surrendered 4 earned runs in 5 innings, a habit thought to have been left behind in Old Detroit. Julio Urias followed suit (5 earned runs in 6 ip). Several other starters are not available due to injury or demotion or — I don’t know what. But there are still enough arms to almost completely avoid replacements, and get enough solid innings to have a reasonable runs-allowed total. Rosebud hitters produced almost exactly as many runs as the team allowed, with three hitters OPSing over 1.000 (Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Polanco, Gary Sanchez)
The last-place Alleghenys may find it hard to believe — but even they outperformed the league leaders in terms of adjusted winning percentage so far this week. The Brewers going through a slump helps, so the Allegheny’s rs/ra ration of 15.3/32.8 doesn’t bury them. Pittsburgh’s pitching has been so rocky this week they’d be better off sending the whole staff off to a retreat and using replacements. Pittsburgh wouldn’t mind keeping Logan Webb’s 6 ip, 1 er, nor Lou Trivino’s 1.3 scoreless innings. Maybe Wil Crowe’s 1.7 ip, 1 er would be worth keeping, too, since it amounts to 5.40 ERA. Everyone else either didn’t appear (6 pitchers, including Frankie Montas) didn’t appear, or was worse than replacement (5 pitchers, including Jose Berrios ). The offense was a little better, about a run per game above replacement level. Nobody who appeared in more than two games is OPSing over .833.