We have three VERY close races in the EFL right now. It’s just that none of them are for first place… yet.
Two Post-Draft Conversations: #1 — the Pears appear to not be paying full attention
Last night, after our draft meeting was over, Phil commented on how he had ended up not drafting anyone (his major accomplishment being forcing the Wolverines to spend more than I wanted on the two pitchers I desperately needed, preventing me from also drafting a hitter, or maybe going two years on Mitch White). He said his team, without reinforcements from this draft, might slide into last place.
“The Pears are already in last place,” I pointed out, to his surprise.
So many implications here, but I’ll mention only two:
- Had Phil already known he was in last place, would he have been so eager to frustrate other people’s plans? Or did he decide to use his $1,000,000 as a resource just to bid other people up?
- Some people aren’t looking at the standings I post as often as I can. I know Tom does — he misses them when I have to skip a few days because of the rest of my life. But some people haven’t looked for… let’s see… SIX weeks since their team fell into last place!
Ok, I just have to let that go. Mitch White probably isn’t all that good anyway, although Ross Stripling has turned out to be a great investment this year, and Mitch is following Ross’ career path uncannily.
Post Draft Conversation #2: The Arch Seraph Tries To Deflect Blame
I complained bitterly to Dave last night about how he’s destroying the pennant race with his team of slightly-super-humans. Dave didn’t dispute me directly. Instead he said “Haviland is doing that to all of you guys.”
He has a point. This week Haviland is burying Old Detroit with its .782 raw winning percentage. Last week it was Canberra who got pounded by the Dragons’ .846 raw winning percentage. The week before, Haviland went easy on the Pirates (.343).
Next week you get Salem, John. We’ll be watching to see if you go as hard on the Seraphim as you did on the Kangaroos and the Wolverines.
As for the Head Cheese… I mean, the Arch Seraph: do not try to blame the 5th place Dragons for what you, the 1st place team, have caused.
Let’s get to those close races.
The Hottest Race: Pittsburgh and Portland.
These two teams, each etched multiple times on this here trophy I happen to have nearby, have been trading places in the 8th and 9th slots of our standings. I like both of these teams. They have some players who can be key players in a championship team in the near future (not 2022, but why not next year?). They are currently 0.19 games apart in the standings, and 0.0015 apart in adjusted winning percentage. Both have raw winning percentages much better than their adjusted one: Pittsburgh by .051 and Portland by .097. Tyler O’Neill hit two homers and took a walk yesterday for a 2.600 daily OPS to push the Rosebuds forward. Oneil Cruz hit one homer and walked to stave off being overrun by the Rosebuds, which was a real danger because both Frankie Montas (6 ip, 4 er) and Jose Berrios (5.3 ip, 4 er) struggled.
The Most Pivotal Race: Kaline and Flint Hill
The Tornados currently occupy 6th place, the pivot point in our standings, with 5 teams ahead of them, and 5 teams trailing. However, that spot kind of belongs, by league tradition, to the Drive, who currently occupy 7th place, 0.123 games behind Haviland, and 0.0017 behind in adjusted winning percentage. In contrast to the proud P-initialed franchises battling just (10 games) below them, the Drive and the Tornados have adjusted winning percentages HIGHER than their raw ones. The Tornados have received a boost of 0.006 percentage points. The Drive are up 0.035, which is dramatically lower than the .100 point boosts they had earlier in the season.
Yesterday Kaline hitters — the five of them who showed up — enjoyed a Happy Edgar Martinez Day! (.381, .458, .524 as a team) led by Albert Pujols (2 for 4 with a 694th homer, and a 1365th walk. It is really hard for your league commissioner to stay neutral about this miraculous end-of-career return to top form for Pujols. I’m not rooting against Flint Hill, or even for Kaline, but I bet even Jamie’s stony heart is softened for Pujols… in fact, there’s evidence right here in the data! In response to the Drive’s Edgar Martinez/Albert Pujols pyrotechnics, the Tornados as a (4-batter) team only went .231, .333, .231. They wanted to avoid distracting attention from Kaline’s great day, and they pretty much succeeded.
The Most Meaningful Race:
The Kangaroos, having passed the Balk earlier this week, are now bearing down on the Wolverines. We are lucky to have this snapshot, with the W’s ahead by 0.29 games and .0023 in adjusted winning percentage. Yesterday the gap was 0.9 games and 0.060 in winning percentage. By tomorrow, at this rate, the already road-injured Wolverines will be receding quickly in the Kangaroos’ rear view mirror, probably never to trouble them again in 2022. It’s easy to see how the K’s can gain so quickly: they hit great yesterday ( .350, .381, .400) behind JD Davis’ perfection (2 for 2 with a walk). And their three pitchers combined for 4 perfect no-hit, no-run innings.
Man, is other people’s perfection hard to take! The Wolverines, perhaps wisely, sent no pitchers to the mound, and Old Detroit hitters did reasonably well (.219, .324, .500) led bu Josh Bell’s perfect 1 for 1 with a walk (2.000 OPS) , and Keston Hiura’s one homer in three plate appearances. But it wasn’t enough to stave off the Kangaroo rush.
The last time the ‘Roos and Woeverines battled this closely this late in the season, it was for 7th place. Canberra won that race. This time it’s for 2nd place. Canberra is almost certain to win again this time.
The Three Hottest Teams:
Canberra is the only team in the EFL closer to first place now than it was yesterday. Yesterday I pointed out that Canberra cannot catch the Seraphim gaining only 0.1 games per day. The season will end first. So the Captain Kangaroo turned things up a notch or two, and Canberra gained 0.4 games in a single day. At that rate they could overtake the Seraphim in Week 24, with two weeks to spare. If we want a pennant race, we need to root for the Kangaroos, as the only team in position to provide one, barring a Pujolsian revival of the currently moribund Wolverines.
Canberra’s weekly raw winning percentage is .784, adjusted to .937 thanks to the public-spirited sacrifices of Flint Hill (whose raw winning percentage is currently .916). That compares to Salem’s raw .815 winning rate, knocked down to .782 by the Kaline Drive’s dogged .552 performance.
The other team flirting with an .800 raw winning percentage this week is Haviland, at .782. That’s the cudgel with which they’ve been pounding the Wolverines this week. The W’s own raw winning percentage is just barely above .500, so the Dragons have to make do with a mere .762 adjusted winning percentage. This has almoooost been enough to keep them up with Seraphims, but not quite: Haviland slipped .008 further behind, not enough to change the 7.7 games-behind figure after rounding.