Subcreation

Bill James has just published on his website a remarkable piece — maybe the most remarkable of his career — under the title “Creating Baseball Fiction With Numbers.”  (You should be able to access it — the article is not behind his subscriber firewall.)  It reveals a secret and a vision — and maybe something about us.

The secret:  James spends a significant chunk of time almost every day creating career stats charts for fictional baseball players.  He says he has, since he was 12 years old, created more than 18,000 such charts — more than one per day, on average, and more than the actual number of pro baseball players since, say, 1900.  He estimates he has spent almost as much time doing that as he has doing his real work.  Here’s an example.

If you were to study this chart you would see the outlines of Warts Barnes’ life story, at least until he retired from baseball sometime in April or May of 1964. Note the moment when his life changed, Daniel Winkler-style.  Note his long road back — not to the same place, but still a place of honor, pride, vindication — and the work and persistence and doubt he spent.  Then his triumph — just in time for one shining year, before age and changes in the league took it all away. It’s Roy Hobbs but with his grueling years-long recovery in full public view.

Here’s the vision: Imagine 500 pages of charts like these, covering a few thousand players. Each one a gem — but here’s the thing: an artist could make all the charts interrelate.

Fictional Warts Barnes played in the same outfield as Ted Williams starting in 1958.  Look at Barnes’ numbers in 1960, and link them with Ted Williams’.  What would that have been like?

Or imagine the way fictional stats could interact with each other. As a companion piece to the article, James provides a mini-version of the Fictional Baseball Encyclopedia comprising only 20 players.  Look it over.   Let’s focus on one detail to help you see the possibilities for a Fictional Baseball Encyclopedia:  How do you think Warts Barnes felt when he heard the news on July 26, 1959?  How about Harry Salters?  Brent Wojcik?

That’s just one episode. You could also look at the Sutherland brothers. Imagine their opinions on Justin and Melvin Upton. Or how much better Edgar Martinez would have fared in Hall of Fame voting had there been a George Sutherland to pave his way.

There could be hundreds of thousands little sketches like these in a Fictional Baseball Encyclopedia.  It would be a real life “Leaf by Niggle” for baseball fans.

Bill James concludes that the window in the marketplace for a Fictional Baseball Encyclopedia has passed.  It’s too dependent on the popularity of the actual baseball encyclopedias obliterated 15 years ago by the internet.

But I am not so sure.  It’s hard to express why.  I wish I could put my finger on it.

Canberra: W 2,  L 0; 8 – 2. (.215, .250, .415; 19.3 ip, 4 er.)  They must be feeling awfully pleased with themselves in Kangaroo HQ.  Taijuan Walker, for whom the ‘Roos have waited a long time, went 6 ip, 1 er.  Robbie Erlin — picked immediately after the infamous Burch Smith — also went 6 ip, 1 er.  And Shane Greene  — a 2015 first round rookie draft pick last year (leaving most of us scratching our heads) and then bombed last year — went 6 ip, 2 er.  That was enough to carry an anemic offense into first place.

Portland Rosebuds: W 1, L 1; 5 – 4. (.224, .275, .388; 28.7 ip, 9 er). They could be called the Portland Twins.  Identical twins Starling Marte and Maikel Franco both went 2 for 7 with a double, a homer and a walk.  Identical twins Chase Anderson and Adam Conley both pitched 6 shutout innings, surrendering 4 hits.  Kole Calhoun went 5 for 9 with two doubles, while his fraternal twin Mookie Betts went 4 for 9 with 2 doubles and a walk.

Old Detroit:  W 1, L 1; 8 – 11  (.258, .319, .468; 29.7 ip, 12 er.)   I thought DiPoto was clever to trade for Wade Miley, a mediocre starter who would look much better in Safeco.  How’s that turned out? Well, Miley’s 6 ip, 6 er in Safeco marred an otherwise excellent two days for the Wolverines. Miley’s ERA on the year is now 8.25, worst on the Ws.  On the other hand, his FIP is now 2.87, best on the W’s.   (In other news, new other hitter JJ Hardy made us mostly forget about Kyle Schwarber by wrapping two homers around the Pesky Pole in Boston.  So here is my Kasich-class improbable path to victory: get Hardy traded to Boston NOW, enjoy his abuse of the Pesky Pole for the rest of the month, then accept the trade at the next manager’s meeting, shedding his salary and acquiring a couple of Boston’s best prospects.)

Haviland: W, 7 – (-2). (.239, .346, .343; 17 ip, 5 er). On one hand, the Chief Dragon found a gem just lying around a couple of years ago in J.D. Martinez, who went 6 for 9 with two doubles and a walk Tuesday and Wednesday.  Carlos Carrasco has also blossomed nicely: 8 ip, 1 er. On the other hand we can’t yet say what the Dragons have in Juan Nicasio. He had a nice start his first time out, but this time he surrendered 4 runs in 3 ip. Still, it was enough to edge back in front of the surging Tornados.

Flint Hill:  W 1, L 1; 8 – 6. (.186, .286, .419;  11.3 ip, 4 er).  Six Tornados went hitless over the last two days — including Byron Buxton, one of the guys the W’s passed over to get the equally hitless Kyle Schwarber. Two Tornados went 1 for the two days. Flint Hill got a win anyway because Xander Bogaerts went 3 for 8 and Marcus Semien went  3 for 5 with a walk — and three home runs!  (That’s a line like this: .600, .667, 2.400, or an OPS of 3.067!)

Cottage: L, (-2) – 0. (.167, .213, .241; 25 ip, 8 er.). Jorge Soler is doing his best to fill Schwarber’s shoes: 2 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly. That’s an interesting batting line, too: 1.000, .750, 1.000.  But all that work was undone by the 6 Cheeses who went hitless for the two days, topped by Matt Duffy’s 0 for 7.

Pittsburgh: L,  9 – 11. (.254, .333, .597;  9.3 ip, 8 er.)  Those of us who’ve been around a while always regard the Alleghenys with a certain level of anxiety, even when they’re lounging around in 7th place.  Too often have they begun inexorable marches to the top of the standings.  They did so last year, only to be frustrated when the season ended two days before they would have taken the lead.  So when they turn in a solid batting line like they have the last two days, with 5 players not named after fish producing OPS over 1.000, alarm bells tend to go off.  They still tingle even though Arquimedes Caminero sextuple chulks (0.7 ip, 4 er) to sabotage Allegheny pitching and stick the A’s with a loss.  Caminero can always be told to hit the road (“¡Camine Caminero!”). Then what would protect us from the next Allegheny tectonic uplift?

Kaline: L, 0 – 2  (.133, .246, .233; 12.3 ip, 6 er).  Another team with 6 ofers in the lineup.  The to hitting stars were Kris Bryant (1 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks) and ex-Wolverine Michael Saunders (2 for 6 with 2 doubles and 2 walks).  Clay Buchholz undermined his team with 5 ip, 5 er. Ryan Vogelsong took Wolverine Francisco Liriano’s place on the Pittsburgh mound and pitched like Liriano: 5 ip, 1 er).

Peshastin: W 0, L 2; 1 – 8.  (.149, .241 .170;  7 ip, 1 er)  Alex Wood covered one game for the Pears but replacements may have been called upon to cover the other, to disastrous effect, especially given the sub-replacement performance provided by Pear batters. Brett Lawrie was the only other Pear (besides Wood) to have a good day: 2 for 3 with a  double.

D.C.: W 0, L 2; 9 – 17.  (.300, .352, .420;  1.3 ip, 2 er).  A nice couple of days for the Balk batters, although probably diluted by some replacements — D.C. got 53 plate appearances, but are stretched pretty thin in some parts of the diamond.  The main problem was how short they were caught on pitching. Getting a shot at the end of the month at some debutants and free agents could give a nice boost to the Balk.