In a comment to Tuesday’s Surprise Bonus Update, Tornado management spoke from the depths of its soul:
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“Wow. Way to smash my heart into tiny pieces. This is the kind of mistake that either fuels a second half run for the ages or a colossal melt.”
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No one wants a Tornado to suffer, so of course we all hope for a second half run for the ages. The only problem is the Tornados might not be eligible for such a run. At the moment they are 0.3 games out of first place. I suspected there might have been other teams in the not-too-distant past who have overcome bigger mid-July deficits, so I did a little study on Baseball Reference.
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Starting in 2016 and working backwards, I took the team in each MLB League that ended the season with the best record in its division, and checked where that team stood on July 12 of that season. Also curious about what might constitute a “colossal melt”, I also compared teams in first place on July 12 with their final standings. And to capture the full scope of one team’s run and a competing team’s collapse, I also computed “swings” by adding a run (in terms of games behind) to the corresponding team’s collapse.
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The Tornado’s plaint also refers to “the ages” as a measure of how remarkable a possible run might be. A “run for the ages” would have to be one that would stand out for ages as memorable, or even unique. But how long are “the ages”? Is this all of human history, and our species’ entire future? Or is it just a really long time? Right now Sam is working on his on-line summer school class, which he will be doing for two hours. He might describe those two hours as “ages.”
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I doubt any baseball event — not even an EFL event — will reverberate through the rest of human history, barring a quick Second Coming. On the other hand, a single baseball game will last longer than Sam’s summer school lesson. You can’t make a run in the standings out of one game. So I decided to use some intermediate time frames as possible operationalizations of the term “ages.”
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Here are the biggest runs, collapses, and swings (all in terms of games behind) over various “ages.”
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For All The Ages Since Flint Hill Joined the League:
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Greatest Run: 6.5 games (NL West, 2016)
Most Colossal Melt: 10.0 games (AL West, 2014)
Biggest Swing: 11.5 games (AL West, 2014)
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Teams eligible for:
Greatest Run: OD, CK, DC
Most Colossal Melt: HD
Biggest Swing: ??
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For All The Ages Since The EFL Began:
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Greatest Run: 6.5 games (NL West, 2016)
Most Colossal Melt: 18.0 games (NL Central, 2012)
Biggest Swing: 19.0 games (NL Central, 2012)
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Teams eligible for:
Greatest Run: OD, CK, DC
Most Colossal Melt: HD
Biggest Swing: ??
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For All The Ages Since The Advent of 6 MLB Divisions:
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Greatest Run: 11.0 games (AL Central, 2006)
Most Colossal Melt: 18.0 games (NL Central, 2012)
Biggest Swing: 19.0 games (NL Central, 2012)
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Teams eligible for:
Greatest Run: OD, CK, DC
Most Colossal Melt: HD
Biggest Swing: ??
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For All The Ages Since The Advent of 4 MLB Divisions:
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Greatest Run: 11.5 games (AL East, 1978)
Most Colossal Melt: 26.0 games (AL east 1973)
Biggest Swing: 26.5 games (AL East, 1973)
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Teams eligible for:
Greatest Run: OD, CK, DC
Most Colossal Melt: HD
Biggest Swing: ??
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For All The Ages Since 1901:
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Greatest Run: 12.5 games (AL, 1947)
Most Colossal Melt: 26.0 games (AL east 1973)
Biggest Swing: 26.5 games (AL East, 1973)
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Teams eligible for:
Greatest Run: OD, CK, DC
Most Colossal Melt: HC
Biggest Swing: ??
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Top runs, melts, and swings:
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TOP RUNS SINCE 1901:
12.5 games (AL 1947)
11.5 games (NL 1914;AL East, 1978)
11.0 games (AL Central, 2006)
9.5 games (NL, 1935)
9.0 games (six times)
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TOP MELTS SINCE 1901:
26 games (AL East, 1973)
22 games (AL West, 1983)
20 games (NL East, 1977)
18 games (NL Central, 2012)
17.5 games (NL, 1915)
16 games (AL, 1962)
14 games (three times)
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TOP SWINGS SINCE 1901:
26.5 games (AL East, 1973)
24 games (NL East, 1977)
23.5 games (AL West, 1983)
22 games (NL, 1914)
19 games (NL Central, 2012)
18.5 games (NL, 1915)
18 games (NL, 1935; NL East, 1973)
17 games (AL, 1911)
16.5 games (NL West, 1999)
Other stuff I noticed in my study:
- One year, the Oakland A’s were 45 – 43 on July 12. They went 57-17 the rest of the season to finish 102 – 60. But that was only good enough for second place … 14 games behind the 2001 Seattle Mariners!
- Whoever is in first place on July 12 is likely to be there at the end of the season. In the 6-division age, 65.9% of 414 July 12 leaders led at the end of the season. In the 4-division age, 62.7% of 300 division leaders led at the end of the season. In the 2 league age (from 1901 through 1968), 64.7% of 408 July 12 league leaders led at the end of the season. Since 1901, 64.6% of all July 12 leaders won their division / league.
- It’s easier to have a massive melt-down than a huge come-from-behind run. The worst meltdown was more than twice as big as the biggest run. The top 12 meltdowns were bigger than the biggest run.
- Every team in the league is still within range of the Dragons, if it matches history’s worst meltdown. Just barely. DC cannot slip even one tenth of a game. Unless, of course, DC is planning one of history’s top runs, in which case it still has maybe 12 games behind to play with. And it will also need a top-ten meltdown from Flint Hill, Cottage, Pittsburgh, Portland, Kaline and Peshastin.
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A run for the ages can only come from one of three EFL teams. A meltdown for the ages can only come from one EFL team. The rest of you can relax — there’s nothing all that memorable at stake for you.
It didn’t make the list, but only because you failed to measure broken hearts. Mine broke for the first time in 1962, when the Dodgers lost the pennant in game 165 to the evil S.F. Giants. The Dodgers were in first all year, it seemed, and Maury Wills looked unstoppable (he stole 104 bases, besting Ty Cobb’s record!) and Tommy Davis hit .340-something and got 150 or so RBIs to lead the league. But Sandy Koufax’s index finger developed a circulatory problem, and the evil Giants used a garden hose to turn the first base area into a swamp to keep Wills anchored there. Of course they got away with it, and beat the Dodgers in a three-game playoff when Stan Williams couldn’t throw strikes. I was depressed for ages (several hours, at least) and have never forgiven the Giants.
You are so much older, Dave. I have no memory of the 1962 Dodger debacle. My first baseball memory is being aware of the 1963 World Series, in which the Dodgers beat the hated Yankees for the first time since they’d moved to LA. Sandy Koufax became my hero. I didn’t become a Maury Wills fan until 1965 when he looked for a while like he was going to beat his own record from 1962. By 1965 — the summer I turned 9 — I was reading the paper (and the box score) every day to find out about the Dodgers and Wills’ stolen bases. I was also listening to almost every Dodger game.