League Updates Uncategorized

When Hindsight is Hurtful

(By Jamie until Ron messed him up, then by Ron)

It is now June! I mean, it has been for a week, but in the EFL it is finally June. Unfortunately, a new month means only one small change in the standings in terms of order, and for everyone except one team, it meant falling further behind the first place Wolverines. 

However, the Wolverine lead remains relatively small. So there is hope!

One editorial comment before the scores: being able to set roster allocations one week into the new month is perhaps the biggest competitive advantage we have over MLB teams. I am hopeful that this month (and future months) we will be able to have our monthly meeting at the end of the current month so that we do not have the benefit of hindsight when making our monthly allocations. Or, if not, that we find a way to minimize the benefit of waiting an entire week to set our lineups. Perhaps having them set by July 1, with an allowance for adding in new players before allocations are due?

Scores for the first week of the month are below. 

EFL Standings for 2021

EFL
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB RS RA
Old Detroit Wolverines 43 18 .711 359.3 228.9
Peshastin Pears 41 18 .691 1.6 289.4 191.9
Kaline Drive 40 21 .662 3 326.3 230.9
Haviland Dragons 39 22 .645 4 275.5 206.1
Flint Hill Tornadoes 39 22 .635 4.6 293.0 216.6
D.C. Balk 34 18 .645 5.3 260.8 192.7
Canberra Kangaroos 31 21 .592 8.1 284.3 238.4
Cottage Cheese 31 28 .524 11.4 314.9 309.9
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 29 30 .495 13.2 292.6 294.3
Portland Rosebuds 29 30 .485 13.7 298.1 306.4
Bellingham Cascades 27 32 .459 15.3 231.9 253.7
 
 
 
Old Detroit: W(4), L(2), 35-21; 262 PA, 56.7 IP
AVG: 0.264 OBP: 0.317 SLG: 0.452 OPS: 0.769
ERA: 3.17 WHIP: 1.252
 
The Wolverines grew their lead over the second place Pears by .2 games on the strength of good pitching and ok hitting. The top hitters for the first week of June were: James McCann (6 for 18 with a 2B and 3 HRs), Carlos Correa (6 for 21 with 1 2B and 2 HRs), JP Crawford (9 for 22 with 5 2Bs and 1 HR) and the recently healed Ke’Bryan Hayes (7 for 18 with a double, triple and home run). The top pitching performances were done by Jonathan Loaisiga (4 ip and no earned runs), Marcus Stroman (12.7 ip and 3 earned runs) and Ross Stripling (5 ip and 1 earned run). 
 
{Note from Ron:  Wolverine management listened to the M’s play the Angels yesterday while driving home from Melanie’s half-iron-man triathlon.  So I got to listen to the W’s new pitcher Logan Gilbert’s first pitch as a Wolverine!  Ex-Wolverine Justin Upton crushed it for a home run.  So much for hindsight!  But God was merciful:  Gilbert sailed through five innings with no further runs allowed!}
 
{In further news about the benefits of hindsight, here’s a NOTE TO DAVE:  The Wolverines don’t appear to have “benefitted” from Adolis Garcia’s stats even though he’s allocated 100%.  All 21 of his plate appearances, including his 4 singles and a walk, should be included.  Garcia was on the allocation input form, but does not show up on the “current allocations” nor the daily update.  Perhaps he got conflated with Luis Garcia, who is allocated 100% to the bench?  Anyway, once this is fixed, the standings might change a bit, possibly not to the W’s benefit.}
 
 
 
Peshastin: W(4), L(1), 37-21; 240 PA, 39 IP
AVG: 0.294 OBP: 0.375 SLG: 0.540 OPS: 0.915
ERA: 3.69 WHIP: 1.026
 
Though the Pears lost ground to OD, they have begun the month strongly. The top hitters for the first week of the month were Ozzie Albies (11 for 25 with 6 2Bs), Juan Soto (7 for 21 with 1 3B and 3 home runs) and Ryan Mountcastle (10 for 20 with 3 2Bs and 3 home runs). On the pitching side, new Pear Blake Snell tossed 7 innings of scoreless baseball, Freddy Peralta added his own 7.1 innings with only one run surrendered, and John Curtiss tossed 3 scoreless innings in relief. 
 
 
 
Kaline: W(3), L(2), 43-29; 258 PA, 37 IP
AVG: 0.293 OBP: 0.380 SLG: 0.573 OPS: 0.953
 ERA: 5.35  
 
[We interrupt this report with an important bulletin:  the Commissioner was curious about the new standings and tried to check in on how the update was coming along.  Even though he was sooo careful to click on “Preview” rather than “take over writing the post”, Jamie got locked out of access to his work.  When Jamie came back, six teams’ updates were lost, plus most of Kaline’s.  The Commissioner apologized profusely, since he had never tried this stunt before and didn’t realize it would hurt anything.  But the Commissioner’s remorse couldn’t resurrect Jamie’s work.  And Jamie did not have the time to re-do it.  So the Commissioner is finishing this post.]
 
Kaline solidified its hold on third place to almost the same degree as it relaxed its challenge on first place: 0.5 games gained and lost in each case.  Just enough innings — needing only 35 for 5 games, the Drive accumulated 37.  
 
The Drive outhit the W’s, led by Jesse Winker’s 8 for 22 (.364, .417, .909) with two walks and four home runs, three of them in one day (again!). Yuli Gurriel (.474, .575, .684) went 9 for 19 with a double, a homer and 4 walks, and Jonathan Schoop’s 8 for 20 with 1 walk, 3 doubles and 4 homers (.400, .429, 1.150). 
 
{Psst, Ron!  Why do you say they were led by Winker if Schoop was even better?}
{Clubhouse leadership.  Winker is on the 28-29 Reds. Schoop is on the 24-35 Tigers.  Clearly Schoop doesn’t have the intangibles Winker does.  Most people can’t even pronounce Skup’s name right, whereas everyone enjoys saying “Winker.”}
 
 
 
Haviland: W 3, L 2; 19 – 17. (229 PA, .237, .300, .396;  45.4 ip, 3.57 ERA) .  Only 36 total runs in 5 games means the Dragons played some not-very-dragonish games while they were in the tunnel, combining with their foes to score only 7.4 runs per game.  Haviland leaned heavily on its hurlers.  No Dragon pitcher dominated for any long stretch — everyone who pitched at least 2 innings allowed at least 1 run.  But only one pitched poorly (Chad Greene’s 4 ip, earned runs) and even that wasn’t a disaster. 
 
The strong pitching saved the Dragons since their hitting wasn’t very strong. For a team scoring only 3.8 runs a game, they hit an impressive 8 homers, coming from 7 different hitters, Joc Pederson being the only Dragon to clout two taters.  But Pederson’s home runs were his only hits, and he only walked twice in 21 plate appearances, leaving his early June line a spindly .118, .205, .577.  More robust offensive leadership came from Gio Urshela (9 for 26 with three doubles and a homer:  .346, .346, .573). 
 
{Ron, is it fair to call a guy who has a .459 ISO “spindly”?}
{His batting line is spindly.  Plus Pederson was injured  for two weeks earlier this year, so maybe he’s personally spindly, too.}
 
 
 
Flint Hill:  W 6, L 0; 45 – 9.  (247 PA, .285, .340, .478;  54 IP, 9 ER, 1.50 ERA) There is a merciful God!   Just think how awful it would have been to have had six straight updates in which one team won every day and never lost.  The Tornados won every day so far in June, by an average score of 7.5 – 1.5!   Sean Manaea pitched 9 shutout innings.  German Marquez pitched twice, accumulating 13 ip, 2 er. Nathan Eovaldi went 6 ip, 1 er.   Julio Urias: 5 ip, 1 er.   Yu Darvish was the screw-up of the starters, allowing 2 entire earned runs in only 5.3 ip.   The three relievers the Tornados acquired in the draft covered 8.7 ip while allowing only 1 earned run. 
 
Meanwhile, their newly-drafted hitter, second-baseman Nick Gordon (a Minnesota Twin, in case you hadn’t heard of him either) led the team in batting average, going 7 for 16 with one homer (.438, .436, .625).
 
Hmm.  Now I know why Jamie built this post around the benefits of hindsight (and why he might feel just a teensy bit guilty about mining hindsight so effectively)! 
 
{Ron, be fair.  Jamie says in his intro he thinks we should draft earlier in the month to reduce the advantages of hindsight.}
{Yes, that’s especially admirable since he clearly is among the best at taking advantage of hindsight.}
 
 
 
DC:  W 3, L 3; 23- 28. (169 PA, .247, .320, .329; 47.9 ip, 23 er, 4.32 ERA)  The Balk slipped a little in the standings.  Solid 4.32 ERA pitching isn’t a disaster,  but it isn’t enough to keep up in the super-charged 2021 version of the EFL. Martin Perez’ 7.7 shutout innings led the way, with no pitching complete meltdowns all week (Ian Anderson’s 4.3 ip, 4 er and Drew Steckenrider’s 2 ip, 2er being the worst performances).  
 
At the plate, the Balk were low on power, with only 2 homers all week (Gallo and Alfaro). Team offensive leader Xander Bogaerts went 7 for 24 with two doubles and 2 walks (.292, .346,  .375) — not that much aboe tthe team line, indicating there was a lot of decent hitting, but not much great hitting, going on.     Joey Gallo did supplement his homer with a single and 6 walks to fashion a .118, .348, .294 line.          
 
{You forgot to mention the Balk’s only player drafted Saturday, Bruce Zimmermann.}
(Oh, yes, Bruce Z:  he appeared in one game and pitched 5.3 innings, allowing 2 earned runs for a 3.38 ERA — pretty good, but not Tornado-class hindsight.}
 
 
Canberra:  W 4, L 2; 32- 21.  (150 PA, .255, .300, .539;  51.7 ip, 19 er, 3.31 ERA).  The ‘Roos outscored their foes in the tunnel by an average score of 5.33 – 3.50.  Rich Hill tossed 5 shutout innings to lower his 2021 ERA to 3.05.  The Kangaroos last spring were willing to trust that Hill had another comeback left in him, and the way things are shaping up at the moment, he appears to be absolutely right — in foresight, not hindsight.  Dane Dunning, whose 9.7 ip, 2 earned runs spread over two appearances provides Hill’s main backup, was also an exercise in foresight this spring. 
 
When it comes to hitting, we once again see Kangaroo foresight in action.  Vladdy Junior, drafted by the ‘Roos in 2020, struggled all last year.  The Captain Kangaroo never waivered, and  Vladdy rewarded him in the first six days of June with a 8 for 18, including a double, two homers, 2 walks… and a triple! (That’s .444, .545, .949!)
 
But there’s a lot of hindsight in Vladdy’s early-June wingman, Eric Haase, snagged in the first round of Saturday’s draft, and who ends Sunday with 
a 7 for 16 line, with a double, 3 walks — and 5 homers!! (I am kicking myself for not grabbing Haase because I had the missing Adolis Garcia just above him on my list — of outfielders, where the catcher Haase is a 2.0 defender).   That’s a .438, .526, 1.438 line. 
 
{Remind me: who was whose wingman?}
{Ryan is still Jamie’s wingman until the ‘Roos catch the Tornados.}
{ No, I meant between Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Eric Haase.}
{I prefer to wait to make that judgment in hindsight.}
 
 
 
Cottage: W 2, L 4; 24 – 31.  (191 PA, .247, .325, .353;  45.6 ip, 25 er, 4.93 ERA).  The theme that stands out when you look at the Cheese’ stats for the first 6 days of June is:  generosity. The only Cheese starting pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 in June so far are LAA teammates Andrew Heaney (1 er, 5 ip, 1.80 ERA) and Shohei Ohtani (2 er in 6 ip, 3.00 ERA). From there it goes: 
 
                   Tai Walker (3 er in 5 ip, 5.40),
                   Alex Cobb ( 5 er in 7 ip, 6.43),
                   Ryan Weathers (4 er in 5 ip, 7.20),
                   Steve Matz (4  er in 4.3 ip, 8.08), 
                   Mitch Keller (2 er in 2 ip, 9.00)
 
At least the Cheese are producing enough innings so far, and already have had 11 pitchers appear this month, 
 
Trea Turner was a sparkplug for the offense (10 for 27 with 2 doubles and a walk  — .370, .393, .444.    2020 wunderkind Randy Arozarena slumped to a 4 for 27 line with  a single double and a lone walk (.148, .179, .222).  Even worse, earlier 2021 wunderkind Shohei Ohtani — he of the enduring pitching excellence, see above) has only   2 hits in 17 plate appearances so far this month.  One of those hits was a double, and the other a homer, and he worked 4 walks and a hbp.  So that .118 batting average becomes a .118, .286,  .333 — still bad, but not   historically so.                                                                            
 
 
Pittsburgh:  W 2,  L 3;  26 – 31.  (173 PA, 257, .349, .419;  27 ip, 19 er, 6.33 ERA).  The Alleghenys ran a competent but not sterling offensive lineup out there these first six days in June.   Garrett Hampson has been the Allegheny hitting star so far:   8 for 20 with 2 doubles and a stolen base (.400, .400, .500) . Or maybe it was Jose Altuve: 6 for 20 with 2 homers and 6 walks (.300, .462, 600).  Or maybe Dominic Smith — 6 for 16 with 2 homers, 4 walks, and 2 HBP :  .375 .505, .750.  The better these listed guys get, the worse the ones did whom I’m not mentioning.
 
One is tempted to blame Wil Crowe for the Allegheny’s pitching woes.  After all, he coughed up 8 earned runs in 4 innings for a showy 18.00 ERA.  And the temptation could be indulged, since the rest of the pitching staff accounted for only 11 er in 23 innings: not shiny, but a competent 4.30 ERA.
 
 
 
 
Portland:  W 3, L 2; 31 – 26.  (250 PA!!!,  .259 .308, .509;  34.7 ip,  27 er, 7.00 ERA)  Pretty good hitting, without any hindsight aids from hitters who were drafted in their future.  Dylan Carlson and Jorge Polanco matched batting lines (24 AB, 8 h, 2 2b, 1 hr, 2 walks:   .333, .384, .504).           
 
If only the pitching had been as good.  It would have been even worse except the Rosebuds drafted some scoreless innings Saturday: 11.3 innings from  Matt Peacock, Tucker Davidson, and Jimmy Nelson, with only 3 earned runs (2.38 ERA).  Every other Portly pitcher permitted at least one run per innings, with Eric Lauer doing the most damage (7 er in 2 ip).  BUT — HINDSIGHT TO THE RESCUE!  The Rosebuds allocated Lauer 0% to start the month.                          
 
{Didn’t Lauer used to be a Wolverine? We all always want to know every time an ex-Wolverine does something good or awful.}
{Yes, he was, before I exercised some hind-sight and DFA’d him.
 
 
 
Bellingham: W 2, L 3; 16 -17.  (223 PA, .204, .300, .342;  40 ip, 12 er, 2.70 ERA).  What discipline!  What pitching!  The Cascades in the tunnel scored only 3.2 runs per game and surrendered only 3.4.
 
Pitching set the tone.  The only poor performance so far in June by a Cascade was Brett Anderson’s  3 earned runs in 4.3 ip.  The best was Kevin Gausman’s 0 er in 7 ip. Trade acquisition Anthony DeSclafani covered 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, almost matching Tyler Mahle’s 7 ip, 2 er.  
 
On the hitting side, results were disappointing overall. Andre drafted his best June hitter to date in Jonathan India (8 for 16 with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 4 walks:  .500, .600, 1.000 — so easy to calculate in my head, thank you, thank you , Mr. India).  He also drafted his worst to date in June: Jarred Kelenic:  0 for 15 with 1 walk.  One walk to break up his perfect line.  
 
I wonder whether Jarred or his agent, or the snide pundits all over the place, still think nasty thoughts about the Mariners delaying Kelenic’s MLB debut until mid-May. 
 
Hindsight suggests they may have rushed him…
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2021
AL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Old Detroit Wolverines 43 18 .711
Flint Hill Tornadoes 39 22 .635 4.6
Tampa Bay Rays 38 23 .623 5.4
Boston Red Sox 36 23 .610 6.4
Toronto Blue Jays 30 27 .526 11.4
New York Yankees 31 29 .517 11.9
Baltimore Orioles 21 38 .356 21.4
NL East
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
D.C. Balk 34 18 .645
Canberra Kangaroos 31 21 .592 2.7
New York Mets 29 23 .558 4.5
Atlanta Braves 28 29 .491 8
Philadelphia Phillies 28 30 .483 8.5
Miami Marlins 25 33 .431 11.5
Washington Nationals 24 32 .429 11.5
 
AL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Chicago White Sox 36 23 .610
Cleveland Indians 31 26 .544 4
Kansas City Royals 29 28 .509 6
Pittsburgh Alleghenys 29 30 .495 6.8
Bellingham Cascades 27 32 .459 8.9
Detroit Tigers 24 35 .407 12
Minnesota Twins 24 35 .407 12
NL Central
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Milwaukee Brewers 33 26 .559
Chicago Cubs 33 26 .559
Cottage Cheese 31 28 .524 2.1
St. Louis Cardinals 31 29 .517 2.5
Cincinnati Reds 28 29 .491 4
Pittsburgh Pirates 23 35 .397 9.5
 
AL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Kaline Drive 40 21 .662
Haviland Dragons 39 22 .645 1
Oakland A’s 35 26 .574 5.4
Houston Astros 33 26 .559 6.4
Seattle Mariners 30 31 .492 10.4
Los Angeles Angels 27 32 .458 12.4
Texas Rangers 23 38 .377 17.4
NL West
TEAM WINS LOSSES PCT. GB
Peshastin Pears 41 18 .691
San Francisco Giants 37 22 .627 3.8
San Diego Padres 36 25 .590 5.8
Los Angeles Dodgers 34 25 .576 6.8
Portland Rosebuds 29 30 .485 12.2
Colorado Rockies 24 36 .400 17.3
Arizona Diamondbacks 20 41 .328 21.8
 
 

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