Troubled by evidence that the Alleghenys’ place in the EFL standings was robbing Betty Weinert of some of the happiness she deserves on her anniversary, I shook my sensitive side awake and ordered it into action. I vowed to find solace for fair Betty, and remove the “d” from her “despair.”
(You know, transforming it to “espair”, which means “hope”, or would if English were just a bit more cognate to the latinesque languages.)
And I have succeeded! Let Betty despair no more!
Here’s a chart I compiled from Baseball Reference with details about great comebacks in MLB history.
|
Year
|
Team
|
Nadir Date
|
Nadir GB
|
Climax Date
|
Climax GA
|
Streak Wins
|
Streak Losses
|
Games Gained
|
GB pace per game
|
Result
|
|
1906
|
CWS
|
7/25
|
9
|
8/23
|
5.5
|
23
|
1
|
14.5
|
0.60
|
Won by 3 games
|
|
1914
|
BOS (n)
|
7/5
|
15
|
8/25
|
0
|
34
|
9
|
15
|
0.35
|
Tied for lead
|
|
1914
|
BOS (n)
|
8/25
|
0
|
10/1
|
11
|
34
|
7
|
11
|
0.27
|
Won by 10.5 games
|
|
1914
|
BOS (n)
|
7/5
|
15
|
10/1
|
11
|
68
|
16
|
26
|
0.31
|
Won by 10.5 games
|
|
1930
|
STL
|
8/8
|
12
|
9/20
|
3
|
34
|
8
|
15
|
0.36
|
Won by 2 games
|
|
1942
|
STL
|
8/5
|
10
|
9/12
|
0
|
31
|
8
|
10
|
0.26
|
Won by 2 games
|
|
1951
|
NYG
|
8/12
|
13
|
9/29
|
0
|
36
|
7
|
13
|
0.30
|
Won tie-breaker
|
|
1964
|
STL
|
8/23
|
11
|
9/29
|
0
|
26
|
9
|
11
|
0.31
|
Won by 1 game
|
|
1969
|
NYM
|
8/13
|
10
|
9/10
|
1
|
22
|
6
|
11
|
0.39
|
Won by 8 games
|
|
1973
|
NYM
|
8/5
|
11.5
|
9/21
|
0.5
|
38
|
17
|
12
|
0.22
|
Won by 1.5 games
|
|
1978
|
NYY
|
7/19
|
14
|
9/10
|
0
|
38
|
14
|
14
|
0.27
|
Won by 1 game
|
|
1988
|
BOS
|
7/9
|
9
|
8/3
|
0
|
19
|
2
|
9
|
0.43
|
Won by 3 games
|
|
1993
|
ATL
|
8/11
|
9
|
9/10
|
0
|
22
|
5
|
9
|
0.33
|
Won by 1 game
|
|
1995
|
SEA
|
8/20
|
12.5
|
9/20
|
0
|
19
|
10
|
12.5
|
0.43
|
Won tie-breaker
|
|
2006
|
MIN
|
8/7
|
10.5
|
9/28
|
0
|
30
|
18
|
10.5
|
0.22
|
Won by 1 game
|
|
2012
|
OAK
|
6/30
|
13
|
7/28
|
-3.5
|
18
|
3
|
9.5
|
0.45
|
Cut the lead!
|
|
2012
|
OAK
|
9/28
|
3
|
10/3
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
4
|
0.80
|
Won by 1 game
|
|
2012
|
OAK
|
6/30
|
13
|
10/3
|
1
|
57
|
26
|
14
|
0.17
|
Took 2 month break
|
Some notes:
1.) These are only comebacks that resulted in the team reaching the postseason. There would be a TON more such surges I didn’t find because they didn’t carry their team to first place in the league, or they fell back out of first after their surge. So this list is a fraction of the actual cases that carried a team 10 – 25 games up the standings.
2.) With approximately four exceptions, I only included comebacks that happened within 50 games, since our teams have 50 or fewer games remaining. Two on the list are just over 50 games (1973 Mets and 1978 Yankees).
Another sort-of exception is the 2012 Athletics, who streaked for 21 games in July, then took exactly two months off treading water in their race, then finished with a 5 game win-streak. This oddly bifurcated streak is kind of cheating, except it really does look like the A’s called time out on their surge, then turned it back on just in time to win their division. In those two months they were never less than 3 games behind and never more than 6. That’s not random. That’s controlled, delayed aggression.
The other exception: the 1914 Boston Braves. They actually pulled off a wonderful 34 – 9 streak to go from 15 games out to tied for first. Then they immediately did another 34 – 7 streak to go from tied for first to 10.5 games up. So I made up for artificially taping together the Athletics interrupted streak by artificially cutting an 84-game streak into two streaks of 43 and 41 games.
3.) Note that “GB pace per game” column. It tells you how many games behind the surging team erased per games played. So the 1906 White Sox were gaining on the league leaders 0.6 games for every game they played. And they never got Eloy Jimenez off the IL for even one of those games!
I will be noting for each team the number of GB they will need to gain, on average for the rest of the season, to catch the Wolverines. This will give you an idea how hard your task is compared to these historical teams – all of whom succeeded in climbing their hills, most of them with games to spare! If they can do it, so can your team. Right?
4.) It’s been 9 years since the last of these streaks. Assuming for now there haven’t been others like them since 2012 – and I don’t recall any — we’re due for another one this year. There’s no reason it can’t be your team! (Which – not to spoil the party or anything – I suppose this last comment applies to the Wolverines, too.)
So Betty, don’t read that last parenthetical. I don’t want even one distant dark cloud on your Allegheny horizon!
Maybe you shouldn’t read ahead, either.
EFL Standings for 2021
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
RS |
RA |
| Old Detroit Wolverines |
81 |
33 |
.707 |
— |
651.6 |
419.0 |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes |
76 |
38 |
.669 |
4.3 |
600.6 |
419.2 |
| D.C. Balk |
72 |
42 |
.632 |
8.6 |
648.6 |
494.8 |
| Peshastin Pears |
72 |
42 |
.630 |
8.8 |
568.6 |
438.9 |
| Kaline Drive |
69 |
45 |
.607 |
11.4 |
601.0 |
483.4 |
| Haviland Dragons |
67 |
47 |
.592 |
13.2 |
592.4 |
504.6 |
| Cottage Cheese |
64 |
51 |
.555 |
17.3 |
668.4 |
611.7 |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys |
62 |
53 |
.540 |
19 |
577.7 |
531.9 |
| Canberra Kangaroos |
61 |
53 |
.534 |
19.7 |
578.2 |
559.0 |
| Bellingham Cascades |
61 |
54 |
.531 |
20.1 |
497.8 |
467.1 |
| Portland Rosebuds |
53 |
61 |
.463 |
27.8 |
584.9 |
637.9 |
NOTE: the stats reported below for each team may not reflect performances in the suspended Mets/Nationals game that was completed yesterday. The standings above DO reflect those performances. I know because the Wolverines’ lead shrank 0.2 games thanks to the 0 for 9 put up bu the combined efforts of Josh Bell and James McCann, which were incorporated only after Dave did a special update to capture the stats from that game after the third inning when it had been suspended.
So — to review — the standings are correct (alas!) but the batting (and, I presume, pitching) lines reported below may not include the completed Mets/Nationals game.
Old Detroit: W, 5 – 3. (43 PA, .257, .395, .400; 2 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA) The line you see here rounded up to 8 runs scored; the line after adjusting for the last 6 innings of the Nats/Mets game came to only 5 runs scored. See? Things happen in the course of a season that can throw a bump into any team’s path.
After all, for each of the thrilling comebacks I listed above (and all the others I didn’t find), there’s a soul-crushing collapse. Whatever team thought the season was won got taught a very hard lesson. Will Smith going 1 for 2 with three walks (out of the team’s generous total of 8 free passes) to lead the Wolverine offense was NOT enough to maintain the W’s lead after all. Well, yes, 4.3 games of the lead remain, but that’s down from 4.4. And there are more than 43 games left in the season…
Flint Hill: W, 10 – 5. (35 PA,, .269, .457, . 577; 7 ip, 1 er, 1.29 ERA). Fixing the glitch added a run to the Tornado total. Teoscar Hernandez’ 2 for 5 with a homer, and the 9 walks the Tornados collected, produced a huge haul of runs. Plus the Flinties sheltered their own Nathan Eovaldi from their own (and everyone else’s) offensive barrage.
Having shaved a tenth of a game from their deficit, the Flinties now have 48 games to gain 4.3 games on the Wolverines. To tie, they need to gain .09 games per game. That’s less than half as hard as the 1973 Mets or 2006 Twins, who gained an average of .22 games per game in their successful comebacks. In fact, they gained at that better than that pace yesterday. They practically have the pennant in the bag.
DC: W, 7- 5. (43 PA, .297, .295 .486; 3 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). The Balk did everything the W’s did, just a tiny bit better. Xander Bogaerts led the offense with a double, a homer, and two walks in 6 trips to the plate. Crochet and Steckenrider covered 50% more scoreless innings than Kimbrel and Loaisiga did. So why did the Balk lose 0.1 games in the standings? Well, Matt Chapman is still allocated 0%. I think Jamie mentioned this yesterday, too. Chapman went 2 for 4. And — more damaging — the Balk accumulated 4 more replacement innings.
I know the Balkan leadership is off enjoying a well-deserved vacation. But the Balk are only 8.6 games out after these last weeks of relative neglect. Tyey can win if they can achieve an average gain of 0.18 games per game, only about 80% as hard as a couple of the least impressive pennant chases on our list.
Peshastin: W, 8 – 3. (19 PA, .333, .368, .667; 2 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). Two or three shutout relief innings seems to be the standard issue from the EFL PBX. In this case it was Kendall Gravemen and Chasen Shreve. Ozzie Albies did most of the heavy lisfting for the Pesty offsne (homer and walk as part of a 2 for 5 day), although a lot of help came from an unexpected place: Jo Adell went 2 for 4. And Mike Zunino homered in his only plate appearance.
The Pears slashed 0.2 games off their deficit in the race, more than enough for the Tornadoes or the Balkans to maintain a winning trajectory. As for their own path to victory: Peshastin is now 8.8 games out with 48 games to play. They need also need a 0.18 (0.183 in their case) average daily gain. Bingo! They exceeded that by a whopping 10%. The Pears are not only in the pennant race, like the two teams just ahead of them, they are winning it!
Kaline: L, 7 – 8. (57 PA, .340, .404. .520 — Happy Edgar Martinez Day! No pitching). It’s probably a little harder to envision one’s team winning a pennant race by losing games. It has happened, but not over a long term and usually with the winning team already ahead. The Drive offense performed admirably yesterday, led by Omar Narvaez (3 for 3 with a homer and a walk). But without any picked up 4.7 replacement innings to go with 3 penalty innings. If those can be erased the Drive would get a nice bump up in the standings.
With 48 games to go, the Drive need to gain an average of only .24 games per game to catch the Wolverines. That’ easier than what the 1942 Cardinals did. And eliminating replacement and penalty innings would make it even easier.
Haviland: W, 3 – (-8). (14 PA, .143, .143, .357; 13.3 ip, 0 er, 0.00 ERA). What a big day! 13.3 scoreless innings, Tarik Skubal accounting for 6 of them. Plus, the Dragons erased 6.3 replacement innings, and, maybe even a few penalty innings? Even with a feeble offensive effort, the Dragons gained 0.9 games on first place.
Wow. 0.9 games is far better than even the 1906 White Sox did. With 48 games left, the Dragons need to gain an average 0.24 games per game. They did more than triple that yesterday. They’d be further ahead than they are behind now, if they kept that up for 48 games. Or to look at it more realistically, the Dragons have bought them two passes for any days where they merely keep pace. The ratio of the Dragons’ gain yesterday to the gain they need is higher than any other team in the EFL who is not already in first place.
Cottage: W, 4 – 3. (38 PA, .167, .211, .333; 6.7 ip, 2 er, 2.69 ERA) A very good outing by Alek Manoah stifled the opposition enough for the Cheese to get a win, despite a feeble offense. Shohei “broke his home run drought”, as I saw it described somewhere — poor guy, he’s only got 38 on the season, he must be desiccated by now.
But with such a narrow win, the Cheese still fell 0.1 games further off the pennant-winning pace. It’s not a big loss, but as I pointed out with the Drive, one is not normally going to be able to pull off a comeback while losing.
But as I also pointed out, replacement and penalty innings can be erased, if you can apply more pitching. As things stand now, the Cheese have only 47 games left to play, and have to make up 17.3 games. They must average a gain of 0.37 games for every game they play. That’s a little more than the Boston Braves did in the first half of their dual 1914 surge. It’s a little less than what the 1969 Mets accomplished. And if there’s a boost available by erasing replacement and penalty innings, it will be even easier.
Pittsburgh: L, 0 – 4. (37 PA, .138, .297, .207; 14.7 ip, 8 er, 4.90 ERA). So, if my message of solace reaches Betty, I want her to notice how the unlikely Bobby Dalbec tripled yesterday, and how the crafty Allegheny hitters combined to walk or get hit by a pitch in 9 of their 37 PA, a stratospheric 24% free pass rate. I’d also want to point out that the real Allegheny pitching results were better than these look because Cody Ponce ( 2 ip, 3 er) was entirely inactive. So even though Nick Sandlin was worse ( 0 ip, 3 er) and 100% active, the effective Allegheny pitching line was more like 12.7 ip, 5 er, for an ERA of 3.55.
Still, sliding 0.6 games further back in a single day does, admittedly, make a difficult task even harder. With 47 games to go, the A’s are 19 games out. They need to gain an average of .40 games per game played to catch the leaders. That’s a challenge, I admit it. Boston climbed a steeper slope (0.43) in 1978, and so did the Mariners in 1995 (also 0.43). Both of those are within living memory of more than half of the EFL. And even the youngest EFLer remembers 1995. And we are talking about the team that still has twice as many EFL championships than any other EFL franchise.
Canberra: L, 5 – 9. (19 PA, .200, .368, .200; no pitching.) The Kangaroos are in a swoon. They feel so light-headed they can’t even get a full slate of hitters to the plate, and no pitchers at all. They sagged another half-game behind.
Smelling salts! Or, these being Kangaroos, smelling-salt licks! There is still time to take this thing! With 47 games left to go the ‘Roos only need to gain 0.41 games per game, essentially the same task facing the Cheese. And the Captain Kangaroo not only remembers the Mariners 1995 miracle, he was there for its pinnacle moment: Edgar Martinez having one of his day: 3 for 6 with two doubles, the second one winning the game in the bottom of the eleventh.
How could the Kangaroos, led by a man who was there for the Mariners’ best day ever, lose hope so soon? The M’s had to gain 0.43 games per game in their surge past the Angels. The ‘Roos only have gain 0.41 games per game to catch the Wolverines.
Bellingham: W, 9 – 2. (35 PA, .310, .429, .621; 7 ip, 1 er, 1.29 ERA). Here are the Cascades, still 20.1 games back even though they’ve just won big. They haven’t given up. Some guy I never heard of — Brian De La Cruz — blasted a homer, double and a walk yesterday, just about matching Jorge Polanco’s homer and a triple, to lead the Cascades’ fine offensive performance. Then Kevin Gausman went 5 strong innings (1 er) to anchor the pitching. And the Belles bounced 0.4 games closer to the top.
That’s just about the pace they need to pull off the greatest comeback in EFL history — but no greater than the Mariners’. The M’s had to gain 0.43 games per game — which is exactly what the Cascades have to do in their final 48 games. Wouldn’t that be great!?! Judging by yesterday, the Belles are ready to go to the ball. Maybe Ryan could get there for the final game like he did in ’95.
See, Betty? The Cascades are still behind the Alleghenys, but they are doing what it takes to make a miracle. Your favorite team could do the same. It’s not too late.
Portland: L, 0 – 6. (30 PA, .185, .267, .185; 10 ip, 6 er, 5.40 ERA) Ok, I’ve been very upbeat so far but now we are coming to a very difficult case, for several reasons:
1. The Rosebuds have been ensconced in the EFL cellar for so long, they’ve resorted to eating the fruit canned in 1978 that my mother left down there. It may be hard for them to imagine life above ground. Especially since it;s so hot here now — the dark, cool cellar may seem like home.
2. After a couple of weeks of good play, where the ‘Buds were often the only team keeping pace with the W’s, Portland had a rough day yesterday. The entire offense comprised 5 hits and 3 walks — and no runs scored. Of the three pitchers who appeared, two stumbled, combining for 9 innings and 6 earned runs.
3. With 48 games left, the ‘Buds have a distinctly tougher mountain to climb. They will need to gain an average of .58 games per game played to tie the W’s. That is so hard to imagine…
4. And it’s even worse when you take into account all the other teams they’ll have to pass to win the prize.
But let’s look at the bright side, Betty:
A. The Alleghenys aren’t as miserable as the Rosebuds. Some of us take comfort when there’s someone suffering worse than we are. But you might be a Christian, so maybe this wouldn’t apply to you.
B. What the Rosebuds have to do has been done before. The very first team on the list – the 1906 Chicago White Sox — had to gain 0.60 games per game to go from 9 games back to 5.5 games up in the span of 24 games. The
‘Buds have 48 game to cover a less than twice that distance!
C. This is the EFL! It’s not a zero – sum game. Every Wolverine loss does not have to be matched with a Tornado or Pear win. Look at the standings: EFL teams have been winning lots games without making each other — or anyone else — lose. The same dynamic that has the EFL as a league 219 games over .500 could come back and bite us. If the league were to lose, say, a third of that unnatural prosperity, while the Rosebuds dodged the effect (just like they’ve dodged, so far, whatever it is that’s putting the rest of the league above average) that would boost Portland a long way.
D. And here’s the biggest elephant in the room, which we haven’t even mentioned: the Rosebuds have to gain .58 games per game, but nothing says they have to do that all on their own effort. The Wolverines could collapse. They could come racing back toward .500. In the EFL we can lose wins as well lose losses. The W’s have won 81 games; in MLB that would guarantee them a .500 record with 48 games to go. But in the EFL, nothing is guaranteed — well, not quite — the W’s can’t lose wins they won in previous month. But you get the idea: teams can both rise and fall faster in the EFL than they can in MLB, because within each month no game result is final until the month is final!
So — go cheerfully into each day, Betty, knowing it’s far from over for the Alleghenys. And your team is in the hands of what has to be the greatest EFL owner of all time, since he’s won twice as many championships as anyone else.
Happy Anniversary.
Combined MLB + EFL Standings for 2021
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Old Detroit Wolverines |
81 |
33 |
.707 |
— |
| Flint Hill Tornadoes |
76 |
38 |
.669 |
4.3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
69 |
45 |
.605 |
11.6 |
| Boston Red Sox |
66 |
50 |
.569 |
15.6 |
| New York Yankees |
63 |
51 |
.553 |
17.6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
62 |
51 |
.549 |
18.1 |
| Baltimore Orioles |
38 |
74 |
.339 |
41.6 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| D.C. Balk |
72 |
42 |
.632 |
— |
| Canberra Kangaroos |
61 |
53 |
.534 |
11.2 |
| Atlanta Braves |
59 |
55 |
.518 |
13.1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
59 |
55 |
.518 |
13.1 |
| New York Mets |
57 |
55 |
.509 |
14.1 |
| Washington Nationals |
50 |
63 |
.442 |
21.6 |
| Miami Marlins |
48 |
67 |
.417 |
24.6 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Chicago White Sox |
67 |
48 |
.583 |
— |
| Pittsburgh Alleghenys |
62 |
53 |
.540 |
4.9 |
| Bellingham Cascades |
61 |
54 |
.531 |
5.9 |
| Cleveland Indians |
55 |
57 |
.491 |
10.5 |
| Detroit Tigers |
56 |
60 |
.483 |
11.5 |
| Minnesota Twins |
50 |
65 |
.435 |
17 |
| Kansas City Royals |
49 |
64 |
.434 |
17 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
69 |
46 |
.600 |
— |
| Cottage Cheese |
64 |
51 |
.555 |
5.2 |
| Cincinnati Reds |
61 |
54 |
.530 |
8 |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
57 |
56 |
.504 |
11 |
| Chicago Cubs |
52 |
64 |
.448 |
17.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
41 |
73 |
.360 |
27.5 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| Kaline Drive |
69 |
45 |
.607 |
— |
| Houston Astros |
68 |
46 |
.596 |
1.2 |
| Haviland Dragons |
67 |
47 |
.592 |
1.8 |
| Oakland A’s |
66 |
48 |
.579 |
3.2 |
| Seattle Mariners |
60 |
55 |
.522 |
9.7 |
| Los Angeles Angels |
57 |
58 |
.496 |
12.7 |
| Texas Rangers |
40 |
74 |
.351 |
29.2 |
| TEAM |
WINS |
LOSSES |
PCT. |
GB |
| San Francisco Giants |
73 |
41 |
.640 |
— |
| Peshastin Pears |
72 |
42 |
.630 |
1.2 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
69 |
45 |
.605 |
4 |
| San Diego Padres |
66 |
50 |
.569 |
8 |
| Portland Rosebuds |
53 |
61 |
.463 |
20.2 |
| Colorado Rockies |
51 |
63 |
.447 |
22 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
35 |
80 |
.304 |
38.5 |
You have given the Tornado fans a gift, Ron! Thank you – .09 games gained per game seems entirely possible. Just yesterday all but a faintest glimmer remained. Now it is something like a match head of hope, and for that we thank you. You didn’t have to deal hope to us, and yet you did!
Thank you for a message filled with hope. And Betty thanks you, too, for leaving our anniversary mini-vacation with nothing but good feeling.