Week 4 summary: Cosmic Justice?

A couple of weeks ago in my Justice class we discussed an article by Thomas Sowell arguing that matters of cosmic justice are largely beyond our ability to affect. Cosmic injustice involves aspects of the natural order that deliver benefits and detriments without human intervention — like whether you were born into a family with adverse medical histories, like poor eyesight or (in Ryan’s case) two generations of ancestors who’ve needed hip replacements. Ryan can’t do anything about his suspect hips.  Nor can his ancestors.  He mostly waits to see if he has dodged the bullet. 

In class I brought up mountain lions and rabbits. Mountain lions are always killing rabbits and eating them.  Rabbits never kill mountain lions, nor eat them.  It doesn’t seem fair, especially if you consider it from behind John Rawls’ veil of ignorance, without knowing whether you’ll be born a mountain lion or a rabbit.  But Sowell argues, since the disparity is dictated by nature and is not the mountain lions’ fault,  they can slay and devour rabbits with clean consciences.  I mean, I don’t eat rabbit much, but I like it, and I eat chickens without any qualms. (And there’s a mouse right now squeaking under the gas faux fireplace, trapped in my sticky trap. I’m not going to eat him, but he can’t catch me in any sticky traps.) 

For our first 18 years, the EFL minimized its exposure to cosmic injustice.  There still was some.  The original four franchises got to do their initial draft in a much richer market than any of their successors, competing against only three other EFL teams for rookies and FA bargains. For years we left expansion teams to their devices, despite the clearly greater difficulty they had in getting access to talent.  It wasn’t until the Balk, the Outs, and the Cascades that we tried to compensate new teams for missing several years of rookie drafting the aftermath of which established teams were still enjoying.  We treated the privilege of established teams as if it were cosmic injustice – inherent in the natural order, nothing we could do anything about.   New expansion teams just had to live with being rabbits for a while. 

This may have seemed less unjust to us because the Alleghenys came in as an expansion team and won the championship in their second year.  That was a true exhibition of cosmic injustice: no one could help it that Mark was so much smarter than the rest of us.  

Fezzick: “I can’t help it that I’m bigger and stronger.  I don’t even exercise.”

As time passes the built-in disadvantage of being an expansion team fades.  Early draft picks, getting the hang of the system, etc. erode the disadvantages. We probably neared peak cosmic justice in the EFL last season when an original franchise barely beat out the defending champs who were in only about their 10th year in the league. 

But this year we’ve managed to spice our league with a lot of cosmic injustice. Just ask the Kangaroos.  Or, even better, the Dragons.

 

Old Detroit: W 4, L 2 on the week. (OD: 35 – 12; WAS: 42 – 28) (261 PA, .278, .345, .409; 56.3 ip, 13 er, 2.08 ERA)

The Wolverines snuck back into first place last night partly because Nestor Cortes and a trio of relievers covered 6.7 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed — that was common justice.  But mostly because the Rockies beat the Nationals 5 – 2, putting a dent in the Nats’ highly UN-natural raw winning percentage (cutting it to .692 on the week).  That was Cosmic Justice: a move back toward right order created by a higher power — probably not God, but Chance is also beyond my control. 

The weekly highlights in Old Detroit included:

• Carlos Correa waking up at the plate (14 for 31, .452, .469, .654)
• Josh Bell staying awake at the plate (10 for 26, 385, .448, .615)
• James Kaprielian coming off the IL (2 ip, 4 er — a chulk, but we’re glad he’s been able to make his Wolverine debut).

 

DC: W 4, L 2 (DC: 25 – 14; SDP: 35 – 27). (303 PA, .205, .304, .375; 63.3 ip, 17 er, 2.42 ERA)

DC had a slightly better day at the plate and on the mound than the W’s yesterday, but the Padres tied 9-9 (an unusually evenly-spilt double header, almost as if they toiled all day only to accomplish zero, a very un-baseball thing to do.). (I almost said it was an un-American thing to do, but a) I’ve done it plenty of times and b) I’m an American.)  When Martin Luther King, Jr., said “the arc of the universe bends toward justice”, I doubt he had the EFL in mind. But look at DC’s weekly numbers, and look at OD’s, and ask yourself: unpleasant EFL history aside, and disregarding the personal qualities of the two owners, shouldn’t the Wolverines have gained on the Balk this week?  And so, it is both Cosmic and common justice that they did. Right?  Unless you think nice, un-annoying people who haven’t won a championship somehow deserve to win for their personal qualities…

Balkan Highlights: 

• Amazing consistency in the offense.  The highest OPS: .873 by Pete Alonso. The next three: .865 (Matt Chapman), .863 (Myles Straw), .860 (Ryan McMahon). 
• Amazing consistency in the pitching. Except for two pitchers combining for 6 er in 7 ip, the other 56.3 innings came from 8 pitchers, none of whom had an ERA over 3.00. 

 

Salem: W 4, L 2  (SS: 25 – 15, TEX: 23 – 18). (260 PA, .226, .293, .347; 43 ip, 11 er, 2.30 ERA). 

We round our wins/losses off to whole numbers for aesthetic and (sometimes) empathetic reasons. Today it’s largely empathetic. The Wolverines, Balk and Seraphim all publicly get awarded 4 wins, 2 losses. But behind the scenes, it turns out, the W’s got 4.7 wins (they were a little UNDER 12 wins last week), the Balk got 3.9 wins, and the Seraphim got 3.8.  

On the other hand, all three top teams sported fancy sub-2.50 ERAs, outscored their opponents by an at least 5 – 3 ratio, and faced (and outperformed) teams on hot streaks. In the case of the Nats and Rangers — highly unexpected hot streaks that left their teams in last place in their divisions, well under .500.  None of these three teams deserved to lose to their weaker opponents, and none of them did. 

The Seraphim engaged in more irony than we suspect of heavenly angels — a hopeful sign, in my book.  To wit:

• Their top hitter for the week was Josh Lowe (9 for 25, .308, .357, .692) who is at this moment traveling to his new team in the rugged Flint Hill are of Kansas. 
• Their second top hitter for the week was Adolis Garcia, whom Dave described to me last Friday as “can’t hit”… oops, I read the wrong line.  Garcia truly CAN’T hit (.174, .200, 191 this week in 25 PA). The guy who CAN is Yandy Diaz (8 for 24, .364, .481, .545).  I think this still qualifies as irony — that I would think perhaps Salem’s WORST hitter, the ex-Wolverine Garcia, had been its best.

 

Haviland: W 1, L 5. (HD: 35 – 29; MIL: 47 – 13). (271 PA, .222, ,306 .444; 48.3 IP, 25 ER, 4.66 ERA)

The Dragons didn’t have a great week.  Their “zero-earned-runs-for-half-a-week” streak ended with a minor thud, but they still outscored their opponents.  However, the cosmos was busy bending some other direction  than toward Haviland this week. Their MLB foes — the Brewers — obliterated the pathetic Reds 18 – 4 last night. The Brewers’ opposition this week was the Pirates, the Cubs, and the Reds, a tour through the dregs of the NL Central.  In addition to the 18 – 4 rout, Milwaukee also had wins of 11 – 1 and 9 – 1 against the Cubs.     47 – 13 predicts a .929 winning percentage, making Haviland’s excellent .602 look like a cute toy.    To get even one win (or 0.6 as the case may be) against a .929 team is a — well, I guess not a towering achievement, but certainly still one to be proud of.

The cosmos should be ashamed of itself, clobbering the honest Dragons from behind while they were going up for their layup. Let’s hope no elbows were broken.

The Dragons did have a highlight or two:

• Aaron Judge hit 5 home runs, on the way to a  .308, .333, .923 line.
• Little brother Kyle Schwarber added 3 more homers, going .312, .450, .875.  Schwarber’s far better OBP means he created 17.3 runs per game, whereas Judge created only 12.3.
• Luis Head headed out the Haviland door with 3.3 scoreless innings of relief.  Talk about injustice! 
• After facing the Giants, Dodgers, and Dodger-impersonating Brewers in successive weeks, the Dragons are probably looking forward to an easier time against the Rockies next week.                                                 

 

Kaline W 4, L 2. (KD: 31 – 42; SEA: 17 – 30) (201 PA, .260, .354, .417; 29.4 IP, 22 ER, 6.73 ERA)

Pitching shortages are common in the mid-to-lower levels of the EFL.  Here we find our first case, with 12.6  innings left to replacement pitchers. But those replacements, at 6.00 ERA this year, did better than Kaline’s life pitchers, who produced 6.73 earned runs per nine innings.  

A team scoring over 5 runs per game, as the Drive did, should win most of its games. And LO! the Drive did just that. But only because the cosmos supplied a supine bunch of Mariners as opponents while Drive pitchers were also supine. Were there highlights to be found amid actual Drive-generated performances? 

• Daulton Varsho went 9 for 25 with 4 doubles and a homer (.360, .448, .640)
• Andres Gimenez went 8 for 21 with two doubles and a homer (.381, .381, .619) — take a walk, Andres!

 

Bellingham:  W 3, L 3. (BC: 19 – 30; DET: 13 – 21). (217 PA, .208, .260, .311; 29.3 ip, 3.98 ERA). 

For six games we need 42 innings to avoid replacements.  The Cascades’ major league pitchers did solid work, keeping their ERA just under 4.00, but only for 29.3 innings, leaving 12.7 for replacements to vandalize. Dakota Hudson started twice, contributing 12 excellent innings (3 earned runs) to cover 40% of the team’s MLB pitching for the week. That’s heroic! Hudson deserves a special award. 

Yadiel Hernandez is Bellingham’s secret weapon.  He went .476, .500, .667 this week in 22 plate appearances.  His season line is .371, .394, .532.  He has only  1 homer and 3 walks, so he can’t keep this up — right?

 

Flint Hill:  W 3, L 3. (FH: 21 – 23; BOS: 18  – 23) (202 PA, .218, .306, .330; 36 ip, 13 ER, 3.25 ERA)

The Red Sox are about a .400 team this season, so far, so they played pretty true for the Tornados, who are themselves gradually twisting their way toward .500.  The shortage of pitching, a problem for most MLB teams, pinched the Tornados this season so far, who fell one good start short this week. With the next several weeks being only 6 days long, it’ll be dicey for the T’s for a little while. 

On the other hand, Jameson Taillon turned in two starts, combining to go 10.7 ip while allowing only 3 earned runs. And Joe Musgrove seems to be in top form: 7 ip, 1 er.

The T’s two best hitters this week were Joey Gallo (3 for 8 with a homer, 1.250 OPS) and Mookie Betts (7 for 18 with 2 homers, 1.122 OPS).  This was Mookie’s last week as a Tornado.  He’ll take his hits to Salem, where they will be very influential in the pennant race. 

 

Canberra: W 4, L 2. (CK: 27 – 17; COL 32 – 27) (286 PA, .240, .315, .363; 56.4 IP, 16 er, 2.55 ERA)

Cosmic injustice has been pretty heavy in Canberra so far. They have faced the Giants (27 rs -16 ra in week 1), the Dodgers (39 – 15), the Brewers (25 -20) and the Rockies (32-27).  For most of the season, the Dodgers hae had the worst treatment at the hands of cosmic justice, although the Dragons’ winning percentage (.666 raw, .493 adjusted) is now a little more skewed than the Kangaroos’ (.537 raw, .380 adjusted). The Rangers are next. Texas was projected to be a pretty bad team when we set our first 16 MLB foes. And they are currently last in the AL West.  So maybe the rains will fall and freshen the parched hills around Canberra.  Finally.

There have been many sturdy performances in Canberra during this oppressive drought.  Reliever Jake Odorizzi pitched 6.7 scoreless innings in relief this week, reversing some less stellar results from earlier in the month.  Ha Seong Kim went 8 for 22 with 4 doubles and a homer for a 1.122 OPS this week.  Kyle Tucker did a little better: 10 for 22 with 2 doubles and a homer  for 1.182 (and a sparkling .500 OB). 

 

Pittsburgh: W 3, L 3.  (PA: 17 – 30;  SFG: 20 – 40) (136 PA, .211, .257, .328; 33 IP, 15 ER, 4.09 ERA). 

The Alleghenys suffered from a shortage of pitching, too, requiring 9 replacement innings that inflated their 4.09 raw ERA to a 4.50 operative ERA.  But they also had a shortage of hitting. That’s a problem, but less of when your team is producing 2.9 rc/g and replacements produce 2.77.   The replacements don’t hurt that much.

The Allegheny stars this week were Luis Robert (8 for 20 with  a homer and a double, 1,029 OPS, and Frankie Montas who covered 12 innings in his two starts at a solid 3.75 ERA (5 er).  Them, and Mitch Haniger’s amazing 2.000 OPS.   Which is what you get when you are safe at first in your first at-bat off the IL, but have sprained an ankle to go right back on the IL. 

 

Portland: W 0, L 6. (PR: 22 – 39; LAD: 24 – 11). (253 PA, .220, .310, .384;  52.3 ip, 40 ER, 6.87 ERA)

It will almost never be fun to face the Dodgers this year, and it probably wasn’t for the Rosebuds this week.  The Dodgers are scoring 4.96 runs per game this season, to lead the majors.  They are allowing onluy 2.48, also to lead the majors, establishing a precise 2  – 1 scoring ratio in the process.  That produces a neat .800 predicted winning percentage for the season for the Dodgers, projecting to a 130-win season and the end of baseball as we know it. 

The Dodgers aren’t really going to outscore their opponents 2 to 1 every week.  For example, they didn’t this week. No, they outscored them 2 – 0.92.

And it’s not like the Rosebuds got 0 wins exactly. No, it was more like .038 of a win. 

Ok, so it was a pretty harsh week. The Brewers dished it out even harsher, and you don’t hear the Dragons complain. Or maybe you do — but I don’t.  Of course, I don’t hear you complaining, either.  I haven’t heard anyone complaining.  But that’s a little hard to imagine…

Amid the rubble from the Dodgers’ bombardment, here were a few surviving flowers: 

• Jason Vosler went 4 for 10 with 2 homers, worth a 1.364 OPS.
• Luis Urias returned from the IL, going 3 for 5 with 3 walks, and a 1.350 OPS.
• Eric Lauer — sure, why not rub it in — was one starting pitcher who did exceptionally well for the Rosebuds, covering 7 innings with only 1 earned run.  Julio Urias (6 innings, 0 er) and  Gausman wasn’t much worse: 7 ip 2 er.  Other starters, not so good, including German Marquez (5 ip 7 er) and Dylan Bundy (9.7 ip. 15 er). 

On the bright side: when the other team is projected for an extremely good (or even really extremely bad_ winning percentage, it doesn’t hurt as much if a pitcher blows up like Bundy did.